U'S' GLOBEC Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics http:www'usglobec'org

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U.S. GLOBECGlobal Ocean Ecosystems
Dynamicshttp//www.usglobec.org

• GOAL Identify how a changing global climate
  will affect the abundance and dynamics of marine
  animal populations
• STRATEGY Focus on processes linking climate
  variables -gt physical processes in the ocean-gt
  population dynamics of marine animals
• OUTCOME Translate knowledge of the coupling
  between physical and biological processes into
  assessments and predictions of the impact of
  climate change on marine resources and marine
  ecosystems

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U.S. GLOBECGlobal Ocean Ecosystems
Dynamicshttp//www.usglobec.org

• Partnerships Within NOAA
• Major funding and program oversight from
  NOS/NCCOS/CSCOR
• Shiptime and scientists from NMFS/NEFSC, NWFSC,
  AFSC
• Scientists from OAR/PMEL
• Partnerships Across Federal agencies
• Partnership with National Science Foundation,
  funding split between NSF and CSCOR,
  co-management of review and award process
• Participation of scientists from USGS, Naval
  Postgraduate Lab
• Partnerships Between Academic and Federal
  Researchers
• Academic scientists from gt25 institutions
  nationwide collaborate with researchers from
  NMFS, OAR/ERLs and U.S. Naval Postgraduate School
• Brings cutting-edge science to Federal agencies,
  allows academic researchers to see the
  application of their results
• International Partnerships
• U.S. GLOBEC is a project of the US Global Change
  Research Program, and is part of GLOBEC
  International, sponsored by Scientific Committee
  on Oceanic Research and International Council for
  the Exploration of the Seas
• U.S. GLOBEC has a large role in the Pacific
  marine science organization PICES

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The GLOBEC Strategy

• Process studies for mechanistic understanding at
  limited time periods
• Broad-scale observations for longer-term context,
  seasonal changes
• Retrospective studies for very long-term context
• Modeling to assimilate and synthesize findings
• Technological innovations to fuel progress

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U.S. GLOBEC Study Areas

• Northwest Atlantic
• Density-driven retentive circulation
• Northern California Current
• Wind-driven upwelling
• Gulf of Alaska
• Wind and buoyancy-driven seasonal downwelling
• Southern Ocean
• Ice-dominated

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GLOBEC Northeast Pacifichttp//globec.oce.orst.ed
u/groups/nep/

• Focus on oceanic ecosystems supporting salmon in
  the Northeast Pacific Ocean
• Northern California Current
• Eastern Boundary Current
• Seasonal wind-driven upwelling
• Field seasons off Oregon coast in 2000, 2002
• Coastal Gulf of Alaska
• Predominantly downwelling
• Circulation forced by freshwater input and wind
• Field seasons in 2001, 2003

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Coastal Gulf of Alaska

• LTOP in place 1997-2004
• Process field studies 2001, 2003
• Focus on cross-shelf variability vs alongshelf
  variability

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GLOBEC LTOP CGOA

• - Vertical CTD-Chlorophyll-PAR profiles along
  Seward Line.
• - Continuous, underway ADCP,  SST, surface
  salinity, and fluorescence data.
• - Discrete bottle samples for measurements of
  nutrients, chlorophyll pigments, oxygen isotope
  ratios, and zooplankton.
• - Vertical tows for zooplankton and
  microzooplankton.
• - Acoustically determine abundance and
  distribution of zooplankton.
• - MOCNESS tows to help form canonical
  correlations with the acoustic data.
• - Gillnet and midwater trawling to collect fish.
• - Determine rates of growth and reproduction of
  crustacean zooplankton.

• Results available at http//halibut.ims.uaf.edu/GL
  OBEC/results/

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Cross-shelf variability

• Outer shelf diatoms sparse, needle-shaped
• Inner shelf diatoms centric, chain-forming
• Iron limitation on outer shelf, small cells
  subject to microzoopl. grazing

Pictures and information from Suzanne Strom,
Western Washington University
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Along-shelf variability
Phyllis Stabeno, PMEL
Andy Thomas, University of Maine
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Physical-Biological Modeling
Sarah Hinkley, AFSC
Al Hermann, PMEL
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GLOBEC Northeast PacificAtmospheric Indices
http//www.pfeg.noaa.gov/research/globec/RESEARCH/
TELECONNECTIONS/index.html

• The NOIx (extratropical Northern Oscillation
  Index) and its analog, the SOIx (extratropical
  Southern Oscillation Index) are new indices of
  midlatitude climate fluctuations that show
  interesting relationships with fluctuations in
  marine ecosystems and populations.
• Counterparts to the SOI (Southern Oscillation
  Index) that is a good indicator of tropical
  variations related to El Niño and La Niña

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GLOBEC Northeast PacificNOIx and Salmon
relationships

• Similar trends in NOIx and salmon catch
• GLOBEC program will provide mechanistic
  understanding of how and why they are related
• Potential for management to adapt to changing
  oceanic regimes

Frank Schwing, Pacific Fisheries Environmental
Lab
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Synthesis

• Data -gt Understanding -gt Knowledge -gt Policy and
  Action -gt Societal benefit
• GLOBEC Synthesis
• Integrated understanding of physical and
  biological processes controlling population
  dynamics of target organisms
• Evaluate how a varying climate may influence
  these populations
• Use knowledge, techniques, and technologies to
  improve predictability of marine system for
  management purposes

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Products from GLOBEC synthesis

• Path to management
• Through periodic advice from NMFS fishery science
  centers to FMCs
• Through index development and transfer to FMC
  decision process
• Through advice to intergovernmental bodies such
  as ICES and PICES

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GLOBEC Legacy

• Program ends 2010
• Pan-regional synthesis 2008-2010
• Data
• Model advances and model products
• Advancing ecosystem management
• Informing ocean observing systems
• Papers, special volumes, books
• Cadre of graduate students trained
• Influencing scientific programs to follow

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Ecological Forecasting
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What is needed for an ecological forecast?

• Understanding of ecosystem composition,
  structure, and functioning, and their responses
  to stressors
• Process studies
• Knowledge of ecosystem conditions past,
  present, scale of variability
• Monitoring, indicators
• Information science
• Forecasting and interpretation tools
• Modeling and visualization
• Translation and operationalization

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How do we approach forecasting?

• Fill gaps in scientific uncertainty
• Integrate disciplines
• Natural sciences
• Social sciences
• Economics
• Information sciences
• Modeling
• Quantify forecast uncertainty
• Foster innovation in all disciplines

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Who will use an ecological forecast?

• Forecasts based solely on on scientific
  objectives have little influence on policy
  because there is no stakeholder (Clark et al.,
  2001)
• Communication between scientists and managers
• Identify management needs, appropriate forecast
  formats
• Direct and focus research questions
• Education of management community
• Utility and uncertainty of forecasts
• Education of research community
• Types of information useful