Drivers of RE policy

1
Drivers of RE policy

• Constitution
• Government objectives
• Knowledge base / research
• Resource base
• Cost benefit analysis
• Investment opportunities
• Market conditions
• International finance
• World Bank Prototype Carbon Fund

2
REAL POLICY DRIVERS?

• THEORY
• Parliament
• Policy White Papers
• Cabinet statements
• Knowledge base /
• independent research
• Stakeholder participation
• Public benefits
• Sustainable development

• PRACTICE
• entrenched interests /
• minerals-industrial complex
• Business as usual
• Control of human capacity
• and information
• Influence over officials
• Private profit
• Monetising commodities

3
Drivers / objectives of RE policy implementation

• Job creation
• Energy security (incl. portfolio risk
  management)
• Economic competitiveness (high growth sector)
• Mobilising local investment
• Attracting foreign direct investment
• Optimising utilisation of available resources
• Conserving finite hydro-carbon endowment
• Water, air and soil quality (reducing local
  pollution and its impacts, including retarding
  childhood development)
• Climate Change a viable life-support system

4
President Kgalema Motlanthe, 3 March 2009

• Government has agreed to a strategic policy
  framework for our emissions to peak between 2020
  and 2025
• the best possibility to overcome the challenges
  of the global economic crisis through investment
  in pro-poor, job creating and sustainable green
  growth.

5
SA ambition, with international support (Annex 1
finance, technology and capacity building)
presented at COP 14 side event
Peak
Plateau
Decline
6
Cabinet response to LTMS as perCONFERENCE
STATEMENTof the National Climate Change Summit

• Government adopted the following vision
• .
• 3. Furthermore, regulatory mechanisms as set out
  in the Scale Up strategic option will be combined
  with economic instruments such as taxes and
  incentives under the Use the Market strategic
  option, with a view to
• Setting similar targets for electricity generated
  from both renewable and nuclear energy sources by
  the end of the next two decades.
• Laying the basis for a net zero-carbon
  electricity sector in the long term.
• Incentivising renewable energy through feed-in
  tariffs.

7
Cabinet response cont.

• Setting ambitious and where appropriate
  mandatory national targets for the reduction of
  transport emissions, including through stringent
  and escalating fuel efficiency standards,
  facilitating passenger modal shifts towards
  public transport and the aggressive promotion of
  hybrids and electric vehicles.

8
White Paper on Energy Policy for the RSA (1998)
section 7.7

• Government policy on renewable energy is thus
  concerned with meeting the following challenges
• ensuring that an equitable level of national
  resources is invested in renewable technologies,
  given their potential and compared to investments
  in other energy supply options and
• addressing constraints on the development of the
  renewable industry.
  emphasis added

9
Energy Resources

• If we look at our major energy resources over a
  200-year span, coal and solar having by far the
  largest potential, we find the following our
  coal reserves are equivalent to only 0.07 of our
  solar potential.
• Coal provides a total energy reserve of
  1,298,000 Peta-Joules (uranium weighs in at only
  157,853 PJ), while the available solar resource
  is 8,500,000 PJ/year1.
• Were the total coal reserve to be used over 200
  years, and this compared to the total solar
  potential of 1,700,000,000 PJ over 200 years
• just 1 of our solar potential is 13 times
  greater than coal available over time.
• 1 figures quoted from South Africas 1st
  National Communication under the United Nations
  Framework Convention on Climate Change (2004),
  Peta-Joule (PJ) being an energy unit equivalent
  to 278 GWh

10
job creation in electricity supplyAGAMA Energy
(2005) The Employment Potential of Renewable
Energy in South Africa
11
Targets to drive employment

• 15 electricity from renewable resources by 2020
• 25 million m2 solar water heating by 2020, with
  urgent financing of solar water heating as a
  virtual power plant of about 5000 MW capacity
• Commitment to rapid implementation and massive
  scaling up of the Working for Energy programme,
  particularly the elements supporting universal
  access to affordable energy services through
  decentralised renewable energy technologies, with
  a labour-intensive, public works approach

12
Marquand, A., Mervin, B., and Tyler, M., (2008)
Costing a 2020 Target of 15 Renewable
Electricity for South Africa,Energy Research
Centre, UCT building on LTMS

• Key findings of the modelling were
• Reaching a 15 renewable target by 2020 will not
  cost the earth by 2020 average electricity costs
  will be only slightly higher than the baseline
  (around 15).
• Combined with an energy efficiency programme,
  average electricity costs will be lower than the
  baseline for most of the 2015-2020 period.
• With the addition of carbon finance (_at_ Euro
  20/tC) for both the efficiency programme and the
  renewable programme, average electricity costs
  will drop to 18 below the baseline by 2020.

13
Modelling reference case and renewables cases

• Reference Case business as usual assume
  current plans for new plants (Medupi, Kusile),
  and thereafter the cheapest option
• Renewables Cases
• Lower wind resource assumptions model chooses
  least-cost way of meeting target
• Higher wind resource assumptions model chooses
  least-cost way of meeting target
• Higher wind resource assumptions target split
  between wind and solar
• All the above also modelled with an energy
  efficiency programme (1A to 3A)

14
GHG emissions savings
15
Mitigation costs using total system costs
16
Climate SAs carbon footprint
South Africa set to exceed 10 Mt per person
17
Shared responsibility
18
Shared responsibility
19
Banks, D. and Schäffler, J., (2006) High
Renewable Scenario gt 50Total Energy Mix
Coal
Oil products
Elec - Renewable
Biomass
Elec - fossil
Hydrogen

20
Electric mobility

• Tank-to-wheels primary energy efficiency of the
  vehicle
• Mechanical powertrain is inherently inefficient
• Gasoline ICEV 18
• Diesel ICEV 23
• Electric powertrain is inherently efficient
• Typically 3-4 times more efficient than the
  mechanical powertrain
• Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) 65-75 (existing
  prototypes)
• Tank-to-wheels all else being equal, electricity
  always wins

21
Electric mobility (REEV)

• Typical electric vehicle (EV) consumes 0.15
  kWh/km
• Estimate 12,000 km per year
• Electricity demand 1,800 kWh per vehicle
• Or one million EVs would consume 1,800 GWh
• 1,800 GWh could be supplied by 230 onshore wind
  turbines, or one million rooftop solar-PV arrays
• EVs can be recharged at night using idling
  plant generation, with additional efficiency
  premium
• Range and time of charge can be addressed through
  battery switching facilities

22
Drivers for RE development

• Fulfilling UN Framework Convention on CC
  commitment to mitigate emissions, consistent with
  common but differentiated responsibilities and
  respective capabilities
• National credibility in international
  negotiations living up to leadership role to
  date
• Resource efficiency of transport energy (REEV)
• Increasing the share of electricity in the energy
  mix
• Reducing the water demand of energy
  transformation (e.g. RE vs CTL)

23
When we host the Solar World Congress in
OctoberWill a Minister of Energy be able to
speak proudly of national accomplishments and
emerging industries?Will we be able to point to
new factories being built for solar water heating
equipment? Thousands of new jobs? Will we have
a feed-in tariff operational? Will we have a any
power purchase agreements in place for solar
energy? Hopefully high profile international
events will also serve as a driver for renewable
energy development
24
Priority drivers for RE policy implementation
and investment in South Africa in 2009

• Targets ambitious and specific
• R E Feed-in Tariffs - gazetted
• supplemented with voluntary initiatives (TRECs)
• Public works programmes
• Pricing carbon
• Post-2012 Multilateral Climate Regime

25
Elements of the Resolution

• Enter with boldness dont be timid
• In the bigger picture renewable energy is not
  expensive it is a necessary investment
• Dr Ngcobo, PPC Chairperson
• Our target could be said to be timid
• Now is the time for implementation and we will
  fine-tune the details as we go along
• Adv. Nogxina DG DME
• Minister Buyelwa Sonjica - 15 by 2020
• gt gt gt target, not a range