Powerdown

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Powerdown

• Options and Actions for
• a Post-Carbon World
• Richard Heinberg

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History and Background
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Energy Slaves

• Every year, each U.S. citizen uses, on average
• 8,000 pounds of oil
• 5,150 pounds of coal
• 4,700 pounds of natural gas
• 1/10th pound of uranium
• If one person-power is 0.25 hp or 635 Btu/hr,
  this is the equivalent of 300 persons working
  around the clock for each of us. (from
  Youngquist)

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America in 1950

• Worlds foremost oil producer
• Worlds foremost oil exporter
• Worlds largest exporter of machine tools and
  manufactured goods
• Worlds foremost creditor nation
• Self-sufficient in nearly all resources

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America in 2005

• Worlds foremost oil importer
• Worlds foremost debtor nation
• Worlds foremost importer of manufactured goods
  and non-petroleum resources
• Manufacturing jobs fleeing to other countries

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Following its national oil production peak, the
US was able to compensate by importing more oil
from other nations. Following the global oil
production peak, we will not be able to
compensate by importing more oil from other
planets.
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Four Ways to Predict Peak

• 1. Calculate the half-way point of extraction,
  based upon estimates of the ultimately
  recoverable resource, or URR (Hubbert, Campbell)

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Four Ways to Predict Peak

• 2. Count the number of years from peak of
  discovery to peak of extraction (Campbell)

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Global Oil Discoveries
ExxonMobil 2003
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Four Ways to Predict Peak

• 3. Add up nation-by-nation peaks to arrive at the
  date for global peak (Richard Duncan)

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Four Ways to Predict Peak

• 4. Compare new production capacity needed in the
  next few years with the production capacity now
  in development (Chris Skrebowski)

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• Chris Srebowski of Petroleum Review (London), in
  his 2004 study, Oil Field Megaprojects,
  calculates that there are 12.5 million
  barrels/day of new production capacity in
  development for the next five years. But 30 mb/d
  of new capacity will be needed to offset
  depletion. This suggests that the likely all-time
  global oil production peak will occur in 2007 or
  2008 at the latest.

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Energy Alternatives
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US energy consumption by source
Source US Energy Information Agency
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Renewable energy as share of total US energy
consumption
Source US Energy Information Agency
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Consequences of Global Oil Peak

• The Economy

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Consequences of Global Oil Peak

• The Economy
• Transportation

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Consequences of Global Oil Peak

• The Economy
• Transportation
• Food and Agriculture

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Consequences of Global Oil Peak

• The Economy
• Transportation
• Food and Agriculture
• War and Peace

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Geopolitics
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Map of Proved Oil Reserves
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Oil Endowment Horseshoe
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What Cheney knew in 1999  In a
speech to the International Petroleum Institute
in London (late 1999), Dick Cheney, then chairman
of the worlds largest oil services company,
Halliburton, presented the picture of world oil
supply and demand to industry insiders. By some
estimates, Cheney stated, there will be an
average of two percent annual growth in global
oil demand over the years ahead, along with,
conservatively, a three percent natural decline
in production from existing reserves.  Cheney
ended on an alarming note That means by 2010 we
will need on the order of an additional fifty
million barrels a day. This is more than six
times Saudi Arabias current output.
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Likely Forms of Resource Wars

• Between rich consuming nations and poorer
  producing nations

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Next StopIran
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Likely Forms of Resource Wars

• Between rich consuming nations and poorer
  producing nations
• Between consuming nations

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Economic Warfare

• China--Yuan pegged to the dollar result cheap
  Chinese imports, continuing loss of American
  jobs.
• Both China and US need MORE OIL!

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Likely Forms of Resource Wars

• Between rich consuming nations and poorer
  producing nations
• Between consuming nations
• Civil wars within producing nations for control
  of resources

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Likely Forms of Resource Wars

• Between rich consuming nations and poorer
  producing nations
• Between consuming nations
• Civil wars within producing nations for control
  of resources
• Asymmetrical warfare between rich consuming
  nations and non-state entities in producing
  nations

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Watch out for thatBRIC
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Sites of Coming Oil Wars?

• Middle East

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Sites of Coming Oil Wars?

• Middle East
• West Africa

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Sites of Coming Oil Wars?

• Middle East
• West Africa
• South America

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Sites of Coming Oil Wars?

• Middle East
• West Africa
• South America
• Central Asia

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14 Characteristics of Fascism(Lawrence Britt)

• 1. Powerful and continuing expressions of
  nationalism.
• 2. Disdain for the importance of human rights.
• 3. Identification of enemies/scapegoats as a
  unifying cause.
• 4. The supremacy of the military/avid militarism.
  
• 5. Rampant sexism.
• 6. A controlled mass media.

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14 Characteristics of Fascism

• 7. Obsession with national security.
• 8. Religion and ruling elite tied together.
• 9. Power of corporations protected.
• 10. Power of labor suppressed or eliminated.
• 11. Disdain and suppression of intellectuals and
  the arts.
• 12. Obsession with crime and punishment.
• 13. Rampant cronyism and corruption.
• 14. Fraudulent elections.

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What to do?

• Resist war and repression
• Focus on local economy and governance
• Make international alliances
• Support media alternatives

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The Uppsala Protocol

• 1. No country shall produce oil at above its
  current Depletion Rate, such being defined as
  annual production as a percentage of the
  estimated amount left to produce
• 2. Each importing country shall reduce its
  imports to match the current World Depletion
  Rate.
• Proposed by Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study
  Group, Uppsala University, Sweden 

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• There is no single magic elixir.
• However, there are possible strategies
• Aim for maximum efficiency
• Localize and decentralize
• Use alternatives now
• Use less
• Raise awareness talk about the issue!

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Priorities

• Ensure local food security
• Ensure local water security
• Reduce your need for transportation
• Support your local economy
• Foster local manufacturing of essential goods
• Plan for long-term emergency services

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