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University of Washington hydrological modeling in La Plata basin

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Title: University of Washington hydrological modeling in La Plata basin


1
University of Washington hydrological modeling in
La Plata basin
  • Dennis P. Lettenmaier
  • Department of Civil and Environmental
    Engineering
  • University of Washington
  • IAI Project Meeting
  • The Impact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes on
    the
  • Hydroclimate of the La Plata Basin
  • Florionapolis, Brazil
  • March 19, 2009

2
Related publications
  • Su, F. and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2009 Estimation of
    surface water budget of La Plata Basin, in
    review, J. Hydrometeorology
  • Saurral, R.I., V.R. Barros, and D.P. Lettenmaier,
    2008 Land use impact on the Uruguay River
    discharge, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12401,
    doi10.1029/2008GL033707.
  • Su, F., H. Yang, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2008
    Evaluation of TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation
    Analysis (TMPA) and its utility in hydrologic
    prediction in La Plata Basin , J.
    Hydrometeorology, 9(4), 622-640.

3
Data sources
  • Meteorological forcings
  • Daily time series of precipitation, maximum

  • temperature, minimum temperature, and
    wind speed
  • Daily precipitation and temperature are
    from NCAR and GDCN (Global Daily Climatology
    Network) station data.
  • wind speed is downscaled from the
    NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
  • Land surface characteristics
  • Soil parameters from Global Soil Data
  • Products CD-ROM (IGBP-DIS)
  • Land cover characterization based on
    University of Maryland 1-km global vegetation
    classifications.

4
  • Precipitation stations for 1986 (2050)
  • Poor coverage areas Paraguay basin and Lower
    basin of the Parana River.

5
  • Temperature stations for 1986 (125).
  • Stations are sparse for the whole basin.

Paraguay
Parana
Uruguay
Lower Basin
6
VASClimO (Variability Analysis of Surface Climate
Observations) gridded monthly half-degree
precipitation.
Mean monthly precipitation (this study)
1979-1999
7
Uruguay
Parana
Paraguay
8
Modeling the water budget of LPB
  • Selected results from Su et al (in review, J
    Hydromet)

9
Streamflow simulations
  • Study area the whole La Plata Basin
  • Model options with full energy balance
  • Model resolution 1/8 degree
  • Time step 3-hour

10
Model description
  • Model features
  • multiple vegetation classes in each cell
  • energy and water budget closure at each time
    step
  • subgrid infiltration and runoff variability
  • and non-linear baseflow generation.

11
La Plata Basin River Network at 1/8 degree
12
FIG. 7. Spatial fields of annual mean
precipitation (mm/yr) from this study (a), CRU
(b), VasclimO (c), and ERA-40 reanalysis (d) for
La Plata Basin (1979-1999).
13
Mean Monthly Streamflow (1979-1999)
Parana at Jupia Area478,000km2
Paraguay
Paraguay at Bermejo Area 1,100,000km2
Parana
Uruguay
Iguazu at Estreito Area63,236km2
Parana at Posadas Area975,000km2
Uruguay at Paso de los Area189,300km2
Simulated
Observed
14
FIG. 8. Spatial fields of annual mean evaporation
(mm) from the VIC model (a), ERA-40 reanalysis
(b), and atmospheric water budget estimates (c)
for La Plata Basin (19791999).
15
FIG. 9. Spatial fields of annual mean runoff (mm)
from the VIC model (a), ERA-40 reanalysis (b),
and atmospheric moisture convergence P-E (c) for
La Plata Basin (19791999).
16
FIG. 10. Seasonal variability of water budget
components over the Uruguay, Upper Paraná,
Paraguay, and the entire La Plata basin for the
period 1979-1999 P precipitation (a), E
evaporation (b), R runoff (c), and P-E (d) from
observations, the VIC model and ERA-40
reanalysis, and atmospheric moisture convergence.
17
FIG. 10. Seasonal variability of water budget
components over the Uruguay, Upper Paraná,
Paraguay, and the entire La Plata basin for the
period 1979-1999 P precipitation (a), E
evaporation (b), R runoff (c), and P-E (d) from
observations, the VIC model and ERA-40
reanalysis, and atmospheric moisture convergence.
18
Vegetation and climate change effects on
streamflow in the Uruguay River basin (from
Saurral et al, 2008)
19
1990s land cover (U MD)
Global Potential Vegetation (Ramankutty and Foley)
Forest/Woodland Shrubland/grassland Cropland
Uruguay River basin land cover change potential
vegetation vs 1990s
20
Simulated and observed streamflows, Uruguay River
at Concordia, Uruguay calibration (1995-99) and
verification (1990-94).
Visual courtesy Ramiro Saurral and Vicente
Barros, University of Buenos Aires
21
Simulated and observed mean monthly flows at
Concordia, 1990-99 for 1990 land cover, and
sensitivity to land cover change (forest type 7
grassland type 10)
Visual courtesy Vicente Barros and Ramiro
Saurral, University of Buenos Aires
22
Predicted and observed Concordia discharge,
decade of 1960s (upper) and 1990s (lower), both
simulations using 1990s vegetation, and
consistent observing network for two decades.
Visual courtesy Vicente Barros and Ramiro
Saurral, University of Buenos Aires
23
Evaluation of TRMM satellite precipitation
product in hydrologic simulations of La Plata
Basin
Fengge Su1, Yang Hong2, and Dennis P.
Lettenmaier1 AGU Fall Meeting December, 2006
1University of Washington, Seattle, WA 2
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD
24
Data sets and methodology
  • The TRMM product evaluated in this study is the
    TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis
    (TMPA) research product Version 6 3B42.
  • It combines precipitation estimates from multiple
    satellites, as well as gauge analyses, where
    available, at a 3-hour time step and 0.25 degree
    spatial resolution.
  • The data set covers the latitude band 50N-S for
    the period 1998 to the delayed present.

Huffman et al., 2006, The TRMM Multi-satellite
Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) Quasi-Global,
Multi-Year, Combined-Sensor Precipitation
Estimates at Fine Scales (to appear in Journal of
Hydrometeorology)
25
Methodology
  • Basin average precipitation estimates from the
    TRMM Satellite precipitation product (Version 6
    3B42) and gauges are compared with each other at
    both daily and monthly time scales.
  • The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land
    surface hydrology model is forced by daily 3B42
    and gauged precipitation over several subbasions
    of La Plata. The simulated streamflow is compared
    with each other and with available observed
    streamflow.

26
3. Precipitation evaluation
Rrmse60
Rrmse13
Rrmse134
Rrmse15
Rrmse44
Scattergrams of daily basin-averaged
precipitation estimated from gauged and TRMM data.
27
Monthly Basin-averaged Precipitation
Scattergrams of monthly basin-averaged
precipitation estimated from gauged and TRMM data.
28
4. Hydrological Modelling
  • Model features
  • multiple vegetation classes in each cell
  • energy and water budget closure at each time
    step
  • subgrid infiltration and runoff variability
  • and non-linear baseflow generation.

The VIC (Liang et al, 19941996) model is a
grid-based land surface scheme designed both for
inclusion in GCMs, and for use as a stand-alone
macro-scale hydrological model.
29
Daily streamflow for basin 3802
3802, Uruguay at Paso de Los Libres (Area 189,
300 km2)
m3/s
m3/s m3/s
Green VS. Black Ef 0.85, Er 2
1998
1999
Red VS. Black Ef 0.48, Er 12
1998
1999
Red VS. Green Ef 0.54, Er 16
Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (Ef)
Relative error (Er)
1998
1999
30
Daily streamflow for basin 6301, 6598, and 6682
(a) 6301, Parana at Jupia (Area 478,000km2)
m3/s
m3/s m3/s
Red VS. Green Ef 0.73, Er 4
1998
1999
(b) 6598, Iguazu at Estreito (Area 63,236 km2)
Red VS. Green Ef 0.73, Er -1
1998
1999
(c) 6682, Paraguay at Ladario (Area 459,990 km2)
Red VS. Green Ef 0.72, Er 18
Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (Ef)
Relative error (Er)
1998
1999
31
Monthly streamflow for the four subbasins
m3/s m3/s
m3/s m3/s
(a) 3802, Uruguay at Paso de Los Libres
(b) 6301, Parana at Jupia
(c) 6598, Iguazu at Estreito
(d) 6682, Paraguay at Ladario
1998 1999
32
Hydrological evaluation of satellite
precipitation products in La Plata basin
1Fengge Su, 2Yang Hong, 3William L. Crosson,
and 4Dennis P. Lettenmaier AGU Fall Meeti
ng December, 2007
1,3USRA at NSSTC/NASA/MSFC,
Huntsville, AL
2University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

4University of Washington, Seattle, WA
33
2. Data sets and methodology
  • Satellite-based precipitation
  • (1) The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation
    Analysis (TMPA) research product 3B42 V.6 and
    real-time version 3B42-RT (Huffman et al 2007)
    .
  • (2) The Precipitation Estimation from Remotely
    Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural
    Networks (PERSIANN) (Sorooshian et al 2000).
  • (3) The Climate Prediction Center morphing
    method (CMORPH) (Joyce et al 2004).
  • Data resolution 3-hour time step and 0.25
    degree spatial resolution.
  • Study period January 1, 2003 August 31,
    2006
  • Study area La Plata basin (-38 S
    -14 S, -56 W -41 W, 3.1106 km2)
  • All three products are satellite only (no
    gauge-based post-processing, as in TMPA RP)

34
3. Precipitation evaluation- spatial fields
Gauge
Annual mean precipitation over La Plata basin
from gridded gauge, TMPA V.6 (gauge adjusted),
TMPA-RT, CMORPH, and PERSIANN estimates for the
years 2003-2005.
TMPA V.6
mm/yr
Difference of annual precipitation between
satellite and gauge estimates.
mm/yr
35
Bias relative to gauge estimates for each year (
2003, 2004, and 2005).
The bias significantly decreased in 2005 over
basins 3802 and 6598 for the three real-time
satellite precipitation products.
36
Spatial fields of annual mean simulated runoff
(2003-2005)
Gauge TMPA V.6
Annual mean simulated runoff forced by the
gauge, TMPA V.6, TMPA-RT, CMORPH, and PERSIANN
estimates for the years 2003-2005.
mm/yr
Difference of annual simulated runoff between
satellite-driven and gauge-observation-driven
simulations.
mm/yr
37
Daily simulated streamflow for basin 3802,
Uruguay at Paso de los Libres (Area 189,
300km2, Jan 2003Aug 2006)

38
Daily simulated streamflow for basin 6598, Iguazu
at Estreito (Area 63,236 km2, Jan 2003Aug 2006)
39
Daily simulated streamflow for basin 6301, Parana
at Jupia (Area 478,000km2, Jan 2003 - Aug 30 20
06)
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