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Sudan and Climate Change. Signed the UNFCCC in Rio1992 and ratified in November 1993 ... Funded by GEF and UNDP with in-kind contribution from Sudan government ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Sudan

And Climate Change
Sudan and Climate Change
  • Signed the UNFCCC in Rio1992 and ratified in
    November 1993
  • Active member, attended all sessions and
    participated in many International Associated
  • Active member of the IPCC, with a number of
    experts being selected as lead authors in the
    different publications
  • October 2004 the ratification of the Kyoto
    Protocol was signed by the president of the

The climate change enabling project
  • Funded by GEF and UNDP with in-kind contribution
    from Sudan government
  • Implemented by Higher Council for Environment and
    Natural Resources (HCENR) and UNDP
  • Technically supported by Stockholm Environment
    Institute Boston Center
  • Implementation started in 1998 and completed by
    the end of 2001
  • Sudans First National Communication was
    submitted in June 2003.

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The objectives
  • Main
  • To foster human resource development in order to
    effectively deal with climate change and address
    its global and nationwide consequences and
  • Specific
  • To improve Sudanese capacity to comply with
  • To facilitate the development of approaches that
    integrate national sustainable development
    objectives with responses to the UNFCCC and
  • To prepare and institutionalize the national

Sudan Vulnerability and Adaptation (V and A)
1 Rationale
  • Sudan is particularly concerned with impacts of
    climate change
  • The majority of its land is quite sensitive to
    changes in temperature precipitation and use
  • Fragile ecosystems
  • Weak infrastructure and economy.
  • Food security is mainly determined by rainfall
  • More than 70 of Sudan population is directly
    dependant on climate-sensitive resources for
    their livelihood.
  • Increased frequency of natural and man-made
  • Severe poverty and deteriorating livelihood

2 Approach
  • Study area Kordofan region
  • Located in central Sudan between latitudes 9? 30
    and 16? 24 North and longitudes 27? to 32? East
  • Exposure units
  • Agricultural (rainfed) sector Sorghum, millet
    and Gum Arabic
  • Water sector surface water
  • Human health sector malaria
  • Methods and approaches
  • IPCC, UNEP, USCSP etc, material used
  • Climate scenario GCMs data, (Magicc/Scengen v.
  • Impacts models (water balance, FAO, MIASMA..etc)
  • Conducted by the VA team which consist of
    experts from national institutions involved in
    these sectors

3 Results
  • The next 30 60 years
  • Agriculture and forestry
  • Shift in the agro ecological zones southward
  • Shrinking in current crop production areas.
  • Crop yield decline in selected stations by 29 -
    71 for Sorghum (more affected than millet) and
    5 - 62 for Millet
  • Gum Arabic yields predicted to decline in the
    range of 25 and 30 region-wide.
  • Water sector
  • Greater water deficit is expected in years 2030
    and 2060 than in the baseline, due to a decline
    in projected rainfall and an increase in the
    evaporation due to temperature rise.
  • Human health (Malaria)
  • Increased Transmission Potential (TP) of malaria
    in 2030 and 2060, throughout the year
    particularly in winter due to higher temperatures
  • Greater risk of outbreaks between
  • Climate change may alter the current distribution
    and intensity of malaria in Sudan.

4 Limitations
  • Limited expertise in modeling, long-term
  • suitability and applicability of models used for
    climate scenarios and impact models used
  • Data gaps incomplete (meteorological data, crop
    productions, disease incidences), not reliable,
    not easily accessible and poorly kept and
  • Future socio-economic changes and their effects
    on the exposure are not well taken into account
    due to the lack of relevant expertise and
    methodological approaches.
  • Adaptation measures not well defined and assessed
    due to lack of relevant expertise, methodological
    constraints, time and resource allocations.

Summary of GHG Studies in Sudan
  • Sectors Covered
  • Energy.
  • Industrial process.
  • Agriculture.
  • Land use and forestry.
  • Wastes.
  • Greenhouse Gases Assessed
  • Carbon dioxide (CO2).
  • Methane (CH4).
  • Nitrous Oxide (NO2).
  • Sulphuric Oxide (SO2).
  • Florinated Hydrocarbons HFCS.
  • Carbon monoxide (CO).

  • Sudan Emissions
  • CO2 20077Gg 78.0 78.0
  • CO 3280 Gg 12.7 12.7
  • CH4 1985 Gg 7.7 7.1
  • Others 410 Gg 1.6 1.6
  • Total 25752

Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector
Mitigation Analysis
  • The GHG mitigation analysis focused on options
    that serve both national development priorities
    and response to the UNFCCC
  • Mainly energy forestry and rangeland sectors were
  • Models LEAP, COMAP
  • Conducted by the Mitigation team, experts from
    national institutions were involved in these
  • Limitations Data issues (availability,
    accessibility, and reliability) and Technical and
    institutional capacities

Towards a National Implementation Strategy
  • Overall objective To promote sustainable
    development paths that improve Sudan's adaptive
    capacity and limit its growth in GHG emissions
    through integration of climate change issues and
    concerns into national policies, strategies and
    development plans.

Towards a National Implementation Strategy
  • Specific objectives include
  • To improve scientific knowledge and understanding
    of climate change and its potential consequences
    on Sudan,
  • To build an enabling environment to integrate
    climate change issues and concerns into national
    development (capacity building, institutional
  • To raise stakeholders awareness,
  • To identify and build synergies with other
    conventions and agreements (coordination),
  • To develop a national adaptation programme.
  • To develop a national GHG mitigation programme.

Who participated in the process
  • About 50 institutions including government, the
    research and academia and the civil society
    organizations participated in the process
  • More than 200 experts participated in the
    scientific studies, the preparation and review of
    the SFNC
  • A national climate change committee established
  • 3 national teams of experts established on GHG
    inventory, Mitigation analysis and VA assessment
  • Focal units is being established within relevant
    institutions to handle climate change issues

What is achieved
  • A national climate change process has been
    established with active participation from all
    relevant stakeholders
  • Awareness has been created within the
    participating institutions also among the public
    through media and public events
  • Technical capacities is being built within
    relevant institutions to deal with climate change
  • Very useful partnership created with SEI_B and
  • Cooperation and communication links established
    with other international institutions and parties

Suggestions on how to improve the process
  • Capacity building with regard to the following
  • Data management techniques
  • Development and use of socio-economic scenarios
  • Development of climate scenarios ( selection and
    down-scaling of GCMs)
  • Use of impact models in VA assessment
  • Modeling and long-term projection techniques
  • Uncertainty management in GHG inventory
  • Provision of technical backstopping and material
    (e.g. models and training packages).
  • Establishment of joint regional programs and
    projects (e.g. GHG inventory database, impact
  • Provisions of adequate financial resources