Advanced Forecasting and Modeling Techniques

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Advanced Forecasting and Modeling Techniques

• Forecasts for Sri Lanka
• South Asian Regional Initiative for Energy
• Pokhara, Nepal
• January 2004
• Amali, Bhanu, Nipuni, Yasarathna

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Country Background

• Energy Sources
• Energy Sector Institutions
• CEB, CPC, ECF, ESC, PUC
• Present Situation
• GDP growth rate 4
• Population 19 million
• Elect 5708 GWh
• Crude 2280 KMT
• Ref. Products 1480 KMT
• Fuel wood 11078 KMT
• Total Energy Use 7247 kTOE

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Data Used
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Data Sources

• CEB
• CPC
• Central Bank of Sri Lanka
• ESC

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Used Variables,

• Electricity
• GDP, Pop,EPr
• Diesel
• GDP,Pop,DPr,VPop
• Fuel wood
• GDP,Pop,KPr,GPr

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Selected Models

• Electricity

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Slected Models

• Diesel

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Selected Models

• Fuel wood

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Future Estimates of Data Used
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Forecast for Electricity
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Forecast for Diesel Consumption
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Forecast for Fuel wood
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Suggestions for Future Workshops

• Computer Facilities
• Course Materials
• Data Requirement

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Thank You