International Relations and International Security

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International Relations and International Security

• Lecture 7Terrorism

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Overview

• Conceptualising Terrorism
• Definitions
• Terrorism as a Political Act
• The Strategic Rationality of Suicide Terrorism
• Historical Perspectives on Terrorism
• Origins
• Precursors of modern-day terrorism
• Types of Terrorism
• Ideological
• Ethnonationalist
• Religious/fundamentalist
• Single-issue
• Trends in Terrorism
• Policy Responses

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Conceptualising Terrorism

• Definitions of terrorism are fundamentally
  political one persons terrorist is another
  persons freedom fighter
• Focus on actions or intended outcomes How much
  are you willing to apply your definition of
  terrorism regardless of how you may feel toward
  certain political actors and/or their agendas?
• Hence, no agreed upon definition, but most
  definitions include
• The use of violence, fear, intimidation, coercion
• For political purposes (otherwise, criminal)
• Planned, calculated, unpredictable (but NOT
  random violence)
• Other elements that are more controversial
• The targeting of innocents or civilians
• The use of political violence by non-state actors
  

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Terrorism as a Political Act

• One (often internally controversial) tactic in an
  arsenal of strategies of political movements
• Targets are not generally the victims, but other
  actors governments, publics, decision makers,
  constituencies
• Audiences
• External opponents that are to be coerced into
  certain actions/non-actions
• Internal potential recruits and supporters
• Aim to change the political climate by making a
  policy or set of policies more costly Coercion
  of opponents without directly engaging them

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Terrorism as a Political Act

• About power
• Instrumental use of terrorism acquisition of
  power in order to effect political change
• Relies on media coverage and symbolism
• High value of symbolic targets
• Ability to generate a response depends on how
  open society is
• Weapon of the weak
• Weaker actor can coerce stronger one
• Asymmetric warfare exploiting critical
  vulnerabilities of otherwise superior opponent

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The Strategic Rationality of Suicide Terrorism

• Suicide terrorism occurs in coordinated clusters
  and with announcements of political aims
• Suicide terrorism may be effective with modern
  democracies
• Relies on media coverage, public opinion, and
  normative pressure
• Suicide terrorism on the increase over past 20
  years due to its effectiveness
• Evidence that groups are moderately more
  successful in achieving their political aims
  after use of suicide terrorism
• Suicide terrorism signals a groups level of
  commitment to its cause

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Historical Perspectives on Terrorism

• French Revolution
• Reign of Terror (1793-4) policy to
  systematically root out counter-revolutionaries
  by Robespierres government
• Virtue, without which terror is evil terror,
  without which virtue is helpless.
• Terror is nothing but justice, prompt, severe
  and inflexible it is therefore an emanation of
  virtue.
• State terrorism continues to exist in parallel to
  use of terrorism by non-state actors
• Nazi, Fascist and Stalinist regimes in Germany,
  Italy, Russia
• Targeting of innocent civilians by states in war
  (Coventry, Hiroshima/Nagasaki, Dresden,
  Srebrenica)
• State-sponsored death squads, disappearances,
  human rights abuse and terrorization of civilian
  populations (El Salvador, Sudan, East Timor)
• Grey area state sponsorship of terrorism
• Libya (IRA)
• Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia (various Palestinian
  groups)
• USSR, Cuba (various liberation groups, e.g.,
  Sendero Luminoso)
• US (various anti-communist groups, e.g., UNITA)

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Historical Perspectives on Terrorism

• Before World War I
• Anarchist movement in Europe and US in late 19th
  century/early 20th century
• propaganda by deed and strategy to publicize
  cause
• policy of tyrannicide/assassinating leaders
• 1880s/1890s Armenian and Macedonian national
  movements use terrorism against Ottoman rule
• 1914 Young Bosnians assassinate Archduke Franz
  Ferdinand in Sarajevo, setting in motion chain of
  events that led to WWI

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Historical Perspectives on Terrorism

• After World War II
• Anti-colonial and national liberation movements
• Algeria-France
• Cyprus-UK
• Israel-UK
• PLO
• Contemporary nationalist, separatist and autonomy
  movements
• Northern Ireland/IRA
• Sri Lanka/Tamil Tigers
• Kurdistan/PKK
• Basque Country/ETA

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Types of Terrorism

• Ideological
• Leftist inspiration from communism
  (Baader-Meinhof Gang, Red Brigades, Weathermen)
• Rightist inspiration from fascism (Neo-Nazi
  groups, Ku Klux Klan, Aryan Nations)
• Ethnonationalist
• Inspiration from anti-colonial/self-determination
  movements (Tamil Tigers, PLO, IRA)
• Religious/fundamentalist
• Inspiration from politicized religion
  (Islamism/al-Qaeda, Christian identity/Anti-aborti
  on Movement, Jewish Defense League)
• Single-issue
• Animal rights (Animal Liberation Front, Win
  Animal Rights WAR)
• Environmentalist (Earth Liberation Front, Earth
  First!)

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Types of Terrorism
Source Terrorism Knowledge Base
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Trends in Terrorism
Source Terrorism Knowledge Base
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Trends in Terrorism
Source Terrorism Knowledge Base
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Trends in Terrorism
Incidents by Target Group (1998-2005)
Source Terrorism Knowledge Base
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Trends in Terrorism
Deaths and Injuries by Target Group (1998-2005)
Source Terrorism Knowledge Base
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Trends in Terrorism
Now al-Qaeda as Movement of Movements
Late-1990s Monolithic Structure of al-Qaeda

• Centrally controlled organization
• Strategic assaults executed by inner core of
  jihadist activists

• Nebulous, segmented, and polycentric organization
• Tactically oriented strikes done by affiliated
  cells (individuals) and when opportunity arises

Source Rand Corporation/Peter Chalk
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Trends in Terrorism

• al-Qaeda
• Continuing interest in hard targets but increased
  focus on soft, civilian-centric venues
• Ongoing emphasis on economic attacks
• Continued reliance on suicide strikes
• Desire to use CBRN weapons but little abilityto
  execute large-scale conventional attacks
• Anti-Globalisation Movement-inspired anarchism
• Radicalization of fringe elements toward
  terrorist designs attacks on symbolic government
  targets and political leaders
• Right-wing/xenophobic militias
• Convergence with leftist strands of
  anti-globalisation movement own racist,
  anti-Semitic doctrines attacks on symbolic
  government targets, political leaders, ethnic
  communities
• Eco-terrorism
• Increasingly anti-capitalist/anti-globalist
  focus attacks on symbolic private sector targets
  and personnel

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Policy Responses

• Military and Policing Responses
• Defensive Actions Homeland Security West Bank
  Security Fence
• Offensive Actions target leadership or state
  sponsors of terrorism
• Regulatory Responses
• Capacity building in states and international
  cooperation (terrorist financing, grey economy
  networks regulating charities improving and
  harmonizing travel documents, etc.)
• Political Responses
• Change in policy (moral hazard problem)
• Public diplomacy war of ideas
• Isolating radicals and mobilizing moderates
• Political channels for dissent and interest
  articulation

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Policy Responses

• Potential trade-offs
• Security vs. civil liberties
• Security vs. efficiency (airport security, visa
  applications)
• Security vs. public diplomacy
• Cost-benefit and risk analysis
• low number of victims compared to other policy
  areas (more efficient to promote seatbelt usage)
• Fusing policy objectives
• Public health
• Disaster management

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Policy Responses
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Policy Responses

• Safeguard democracy at home
• Homeland security
• Avoid unnecessary trade-offs
• Confront terrorists and their support
  infrastructures
• Intelligence on leadership and operatives
• Target operatives, leadership and communication
  infrastructure that links them
• Disrupt financial and material support networks
• Address root causes of terrorism
• Development
• Democracy promotion
• Engagement

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International Relations and International Security

• Lecture 7Terrorism