Integrated Regional Assessment for South Asia

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Integrated Regional Assessment for South Asia
P.R. Shukla
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The South Asia region

• Consists of Seven Countries
• India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal,
  Bhutan and Maldives.
  
• Area- 3 of the world total
• Population- About a quarter of the worlds
  population.
  
• Among the fastest growing developing country
  regions

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Economic Indicators
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Population Projections
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Global climate change and South Asia
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Current climate

• Predominantly a Land of Tropical monsoon
  Climate.
  
• Has a variety of climatic regions
• Arid climate in west India and east Pakistan
• Warm-humid in Sri Lanka, Maldives
• Distribution of rainfall rather than temperature
  delineates the climate of one region from the
  other

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South Asia Geo-Political Regions
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Factors contributing to Climate change

• Natural
• El Nino (effect on monsoon)
• Anthropogenic
• Population growth
• Land use change and forestry
• Energy and emission patterns

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Total Energy Consumption Shares (1995)
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Total and Per Capita CO2 Emissions
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CO2 Emission Distribution
45
35
35
5
55
2
13
10
Power
Industry
Other industries
Road
Other transport
Steel
Other sectors
Cement

• Power sector has 90 emissions from 50 plants
  
  
• Industry emissions are relatively dispersed. 10
  districts emit 70 (including 5 steel plants)

62 contribution to Indias CO2 Equivalent GHG
emissions
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Coal consumption, CO2 and SO2 emissions
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Point Source Carbon Emissions (India)

• Largest 10 sources contribute 40 of power sector
  and 18 of all India emissions
  
• 40 sources contribute 85 (power) 39 (all
  India)

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Climate change impacts
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Human health impacts

• Heat wave-Northern plains of India and Desert
  areas of India and Pakistan.
  
• Malaria and Dengue Fever-Tropical Regions of Sri
  Lanka and India.
  
• Phytoplankton blooms-South Asian Coastlines.

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Impact on Agriculture

• Changing pattern of monsoons would affect
  Agricultural yields. (both ve and - ve)
  
• Yields of crops near their maximum temperature
  tolerance would be adversely affected.
  
• The region is susceptible to diseases, pests and
  weeds which show a strong correlation wit
  changing climatic conditions.

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Energy, industry and transport

• These impacts can be described under
• Directly sensitive to climate change
• Dependent on climate sensitive resources
• Markets sensitive to Climate Change

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Directly sensitive to climate

• Coastal industries
• Hotels
• Coastal industries (salt manufacturing,
  fisheries)
  
• Coastal infrastructure
• Ports
• Railway networks (e.g. Konkan Railways)
• Roads
• Inland infrastructure
• Hilly roads and bridges
• Dams
• Change in energy consumption
• Space cooling in Building and transportation
  sectors
  
• Due to changed irrigation requirements

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Dependent on climate-sensitive resources

• Agro-industries
• Food
• Beverages
• Industries dependent on forestry
• Building sector
• Paper
• Power generation
• Shipping

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Markets sensitive to climate change

• Energy infrastructure
• Change in transport demand
• Migration
• Agro-product movements
• Insurance sector

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Konkan Railway
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Power Plants
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Integrated Modelling Framework
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Integrate Diverse Concepts

• Diverse socio-economic scenarios
• Macro and micro-economies
• Local and regional boundaries
• Short and long time horizons
• Local and global environmental concerns
• Rural and urban perspectives
• Regional emissions and impact assessment
• Probability and Decision under uncertainty
• Technology

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Uncertainty and security issues
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Uncertainty in geographic factors

• Monsoons
• Sensitive to sea surface temperature and land
  surface conditions
  
• Sea level
• Magnitude of the rise
• Areas that would be threatened need to be
  identified.
  
• Water resources
• Changes in ground water levels
• Changes in summer flows of several rivers that
  originate from glaciers.

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Uncertainty in socio-economic factors

• Population growth
• Fast changing fertility and mortality rates
  across the region.
  
• Migrations resulting from natural disasters like
  cyclones, floods and droughts.
  
• Urbanization
• High rate of urbanization is causing pressure on
  existing infrastructure.
  
• Change in energy resource use pattern
• Economic and social development
• Level of economic and social development varies
  across the region.

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Energy Security Issues

• Least Expensive Pipeline Route to North India
• Piped Gas 3.5/GJ
• LNG Import 5/GJ
• Coal Import 2.5-3/GJ
• Substantive Mitigation at below 50/ Ton of Carbon

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Vulnerability and Adaptation Issues
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Vulnerability

• Agriculture
• Sector highly dependent on Rainfall
• Food Security
• Predominantly Subsistence farming
• Industry
• Tourism
• Agro industries would be affected
• Infrastructure
• Ports, roads, rail, and bridges in low lying
  coastal areas would be affected.

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Adaptation strategy

• Agriculture
• Changes in the cropping system.
• Developing crop varieties that are more resistant
  to changing climatic conditions.
  
• Developing alternatives like aquaculture.
• Water resources
• Rain water harvesting and water conservation.

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Forest Cover as percentage of Total Land Area
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Adaptation Strategy Contd.

• Coastal Regions
• Movement of threatened population.
• Promotion and development of risk management to
  protect ecology of the region.
  
• Forests
• Establishment of corridors to assist the
  "migration" of ecosystems.
  
• Land-use management, and plantations.
• Encourage sustainable agricultural practices and
  restoration of degraded areas.

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Policy Assessment
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Policies and Measures for Impacts

• Coastal zone policies
• Infrastructure policies
• Adaptation measures
• Insurance packages