Model Flow Chart Template

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Wind Energy Potential and Generation Siting in
Fort Dauphin, Madagascar
Harris Stewart
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Madagascar
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The Worlds 1 Biodiversity Hotspot

• Unique evolutionary history
• Unsurpassed speciation and endemism (80 total,
  95 among vascular plants)
  
• Burgeoning human population
• Declining habitat and overall environmental
  quality
  

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Agriculture

• Tavy
• Historically been sustainable, but degrades
  forest structure under population pressure
  
• Results in increased fragmentation and erosion

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Tavy and Forest Policy

• Early 19th century Malagasy monarchy declared all
  forests as its unalienable demain.
  
• French assumed colonial rule, annexing all forest
  lands. Banned tavy in 1913.
  
• Protected areas were established in 1927,
  dispossessing Malagasy citizens of their homes
  and livlihoods.
  
• Post-independence (1960) the state continued the
  colonial model, adopting the western Yellowstone
  model. Technique involves fortress conservation
  whereby local people were removed, boundaries
  were set and land-use practices (including
  ancestral burial, medicinal plant harvesting)
  were criminalized.

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Flawed Conservation Paradigms

• Psychologically tavy came to represent a stand
  against the oppression of colonial governments
  and an affirmation of identity.
  
• Land use patterns are deeply imbedded in the
  spiritual and cultural fabric of Madagascar.
  
• Conservation risks adopting a face of
  neo-colonialism
  
• Future success must view human involvement and
  well-being as an indispensable element

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Current Energy Sources

• Biomass
• Hydroelectric
• Coal

Energy production has been the primary agent of
forest loss, but has received relatively small
attention compared to anti-tavy initiatives
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Energy

• Charcoal production has been the primary agent of
  forest loss.
  
• Used in domestic activities over a three stone
  oven
  
• Efficiency must be confronted simultaneously with
  energy capacity development
  
• Source of high levels of respiratory disease
  among women and children
  

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Bleeding of the land

• Iron rich soils frequently flood rivers after
  tavy season
  
• Threatens food security of coastal populations

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Combination of extensive tavy and itenerant
charcoal production has resulted in a mass
conversion of the landscape
From temperate rainforest to savannah
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Fort Dauphin
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Regional Charcteristics

• Extreme poverty
• (
• Rural population (94.7)
• Low electrification rate (3)
• 84.4 relying exclusively on firewood/charcoal
• Impending mining activities

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QIT Minerals Madagascar

• Single largest development activity in Malagasy
  history.
  
• Ilmenite mine sand dredging for Titanium
  Dioxide
  
• Will remove aprox. 76 of the remaining littoral
  forest
  
• Places justification on population pressure and
  poverty, both as neo-Malthusian absolutes

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Projected Deforestation 1950 - 2040
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Antanosy Region

• Mining areas are orange zones
• Primary littoral forest are green zones

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Paradox

• Both scenarios discussed claim to be concerned
  with the welfare and sustainable development of
  the area, however both strategies neglect to
  include the Antanosy people. Initiatives are
  being done to not with the local people, all
  while ignoring the underlying causes for the
  cycle of poverty that is intensifying. Projects
  should instead be focusing on providing

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Alternatives
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Abundant Wind Resources
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Griggs-Putnam Index
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Wind has become the fastest growing and cheapest
source of electricity production on the market
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Ideal Appropriate Technology

• Modular nature accommodates decentralized
  societal structure
  
• Grid-intertie option to provide reliable
  electrical service
  
• Can be dynamic in size according to local wind
  regime, demands and available funds.
  
• Cheapest source of energy available
• World Bank is beginning to recognize RET as an
  effective means to combat poverty. Finally
  heeding UNDP advice.
  

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Mesoscale Model of African Wind Resources
No studies have been conducted on a site specific
level in the southeast Due to low economic activi
ty (i.e. bad investment)
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Research Questions

• 1. What kilowatt potentials exist in the coastal
  winds of Fort Dauphin? What are the spatial
  and temporal trends associated with these winds
  and where would generators need to be sited to
  maximize these potentials?
• 2. What areas of surrounding vegetation could
  be, in theory, conserved if energy demands for
  biomass were displaced?
  
• 3. How many households could have their net
  energy demands satisfied by wind energy and
  what would be the cost associated with the
  necessary infrastructure to procure it (e.g.
  wind turbine height, distance from community,
  etc.)?
• 4. What are the community perceptions of wind
  energy and is there a present demand for its
  deployment?
  

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Key Collaborators/Contributors

• FTM- Malagasy Department of Maps
• WWF Madagascar
• Dr. Carter Ingram
• NCDC
• AWS Truewinds/ American Wind Energy Association
• QMM
• ONG Azafady/ Andrew Lees Trust
• NEMAC
• Brandie Farriss and Dr. Dee Eggers

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5 second introduction to Geographical Information
Systems (GIS)

• A set of computer-based programs that are used to
  store, project and analyze previously isolated
  forms of spatial data
  
• Datasets are stored in one of two formats
  (raster, vector) and are represented as layers in
  the GIS
  
• Layers are then overlaid to perform a multitude
  of spatial analyses based on user-criteria

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Role of GIS in wind resource analysis

• Provides the capability to combine appropriate
  sources of spatial data, analyze them
  simultaneously on a digital level to find
  potential generation sites and efficiently
  transfer information products to interested
  parties
• Greater level of visualization detail and
  accuracy in analysis
  
• Sites can be selected that fit multiple sets of
  independent criteria, a function known as
  suitability analysis
  
• Most atmospheric models can be fully integrated
  into ArcGIS

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Necessary Layers

• DEM
• Vegetation coverages Canopy height
• Land use coverage
• Population distribution
• Electrical infrastructure
• Road network
• Hydrology
• Surface wind data
• Upper-air wind data
• Public perception studies noise, aesthetic

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Other Integrated Models

• Computational Fluid Dynamics Models
• WAsP (Wind Atlas, Analysis and Application
  Program)- extrapolates wind data in the
  horizontal and vertical directions using ground
  surface data on topography and land use.
  Traditionally been the standard for micro-siting
  studies.
• Mesoscale Numerical Models (MM5, Weather Research
  and Forecasting)- Successor to the MM5 Uses
  higher order numerical methods. Generally easier
  user environment.

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Methodology

• Numerous, geocoded wind data sources must be
  found and cross-referenced for accuracy.
  
• The data will be entered into WAsP, using the raw
  data analysis function.
  
• The DEM is added or is directly digitized from a
  topographical map onto the program.
  
• The analysis function combines meteorological
  data and the site description, creating a wind
  atlas.

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• When combined with a specific turbines power
  curve and the power density of the area, an
  annual energy output is created for each cell.
  The result is a wind climate. Energy ½
  pV3(W/m2)
• Weibull distributions, mean wind speed, mean
  power density and wake loss (if a wind farm) are
  also created on a cell by cell basis.
  
• Wind roses and power curves can be displayed at
  ideal sites, or the display can be a stretched
  surface, with each cell containing the
  appropriate attributes

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Example of a WasP Resource Maps
Stretched
Micro-siting
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• The WAsP projections are then exported to
  ArcGIS.
  
• GIS performs the complete analysis of appropriate
  siting requirements.
  
• Noise levels of the selected turbines will be
  determined from the manufacturer.
  
• Buffers will be created representing the
  distances that noise travels.
  
• Polygons will be created for different hamlets
  (total of 20 in the region) and will be
  classified according to their perceptions of wind
  energy.
• Road and transmission networks will be added,
  determining where infrastructure already exists
  and areas that will require additional
  construction.

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• Vegetation will be overlaid to indicate the
  current sources of energy inputs and obstacles to
  turbine installation.
  
• A total acreage will be computed.
• Ideal locations will be selected that
• Have maximum annual energy output
• Close vicinity to enthusiastic hamlets
• Have access to roads and transmission lines
• Dont disturb environmental features (i.e.
  Mangrove swamps)
  
• 19. Will be weighted according to of criteria
  satisfied
  
• Incremental costs will be calculated for road and
  transmission construction
  

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Questions?
Misaotra Betsek Anao Be!