Crime Analysis and the Public

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Crime Analysis and the Public

• Susan Wernicke
• Crime Analyst
• Shawnee Police Department

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CRIME ANALYSISWhat do you think of?
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Lots of DATA?
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Really Neat Maps?
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Crime Info for the Public?
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Lots of Computers?
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Fancy charts and graphs(that no one really
understands except maybe the analyst)
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Something Complex ?(that you dont want to
think about on a Friday morning at 11am when you
are attending a class only to qualify for the
fleece sweatshirt)

• ANALYSIS
• Main Entry analysis Pronunciation
  -'na-l-ssFunction nounInflected Form(s)
  plural analyses /-"sEz/Etymology New Latin,
  from Greek, from analyein to break up
• 1 separation of a whole into its component
  parts
• 2 proof of a mathematical proposition by
  assuming the result and deducing a valid
  statement by a series of reversible steps
• 3 an examination of a complex, its elements,
  and their relations
• 4 a method in philosophy of resolving complex
  expressions into simpler or more basic ones

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CSI Crime Scene Investigation
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The District (getting closer!)
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Well, what is it ?

• A systematic process of
• Collecting
• Collating (organizing)
• Analyzing
• Disseminating
• timely, useful, and accurate information
• That describes
• crime patterns, crime trends, potential
  suspects.

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Imagine This.
Collect
Disseminate
Analyze
Collate
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ButSometimesIFeelLikeThis
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Types of Analysis in law enforcement

• Crime Analysis-whos doing what to whom
• focus on crimes against persons and property
• Intelligence Analysis-whos doing what with whom
• focus on relationships between persons/organizatio
  ns
• Operations Analysis-ascertain how the agency is
  using internal resources
• focus on personnel deployment and workload
  distribution patterns
• Investigative Analysis-specialized type of
  analysis used in unusual/serial homicide cases
• examines why the offender is doing it.
• THINK FBI--FUN STUFF!

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Three types of CRIME analysis

• Administrative - - provides economic, geographic,
  and social information to administrators (I.E.
  Grant writing, research projects, city council
  reports, feasibility studies, etc.)

• Tactical--assist operations on specific and
  immediate crime problems--eliminate crime series.

Strategic--concerned with long-range problems and
reducing the overall crime trends
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The job of a crime analyst

• Identify patterns and trends
• Inform the patrol officers, investigators the
  public.
• Try to predict where and when the criminal is
  going to strike next.
• Work with other members of the department, other
  city agencies, and the public to develop
  strategies to eradicate problems.

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But what are we REALLY trying to do?
Detect Patterns
Correlate Suspects
Profile (future) targets
Forecast crimes
Allocate Resources
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Most Crime.

• Random
• Unpredictable
• Unconnected
• A man seizes the opportunity to steal a laptop
  left unattended.
• An argument in a bar erupts into a fight.
• A man is killed in a drug deal gone awry.
• A date rape.
• Some bullies steal a classmate's hat on the
  playground.
• A bored housewife shoplifts a pair of earrings.
• A feud between neighbors leads to a rock thrown
  through a window.

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But SOME crime
Not isolated - TARGETED Emergent patterns -
PREDICTABLE Specific targets - CONNECTED The gas
station robber who holds up a female clerk on
Friday nights The rapist who stalks women in
parks in the eastern half of the city The
pigeon-drop con artist The repeat auto
thief The group of kids that smashes car windows
every weekend The purse snatcher The serial
killer
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Why does it work?
Criminals (Humans) are creatures of habit
Criminals (Humans) don't work harder than they
have to
Unconscious decisions - based on on knowledge of
area
Have targets in mind - selection is spontaneous
Find victims that are easy targets
Predictable Patterns
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But before you can find the abnormal, you
have to know what is NORMAL!
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Know whats normal explainable

• To know when something is abnormal in your area,
  you first need to know what is NORMAL!
• How many burglaries in area X are too many? Is
  1 a week too many? Is 20 a week normal?
  Low? High?

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Determine if the incidents are cyclic, seasonal,
or holiday related

• More vandalism? More loud noise complaints? More
  public drunkenness? More loud parties?

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Know whats normal explainable

• What if analysis reveals that 30 of the cars
  taken from the mall are white Fords, GMs or
  Chevys during the evening shift?
• What are the three most popular colors of
  vehicles? White, black and red
• What are the 3 most popular makes of cars?
  Ford, GM and Chevy.
• When is the mall open?
  
  1000-2200.
• When is evening shift? 1400-2200

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Know whats not normal, but CAN be explained

• Influx of crime due to circus/carnival in town
• Influx of crime due to Olympics, World Fair or
  other one time event (Old Shawnee Days!)
• Influx of crime due to unseasonably warm/cold
  weather

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How do you find the abnormal? (that cannot be
explained)
. . . looking for similarities and related facts.

• Geographic concentration
• Specific/recurring MO patterns

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Crime Pattern Detection
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And when you find somethingABNORMAL or
UNEXPLAINABLE.then what?
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Analyze the discovery!

• What is the crime being committed?
• Auto Burglaries
• What location is being targeted?
• Health Club parking lots
• Who is being targeted?
• Customers specifically women
• What is the MO?
• Smash window / take purse
• When are the events occurring?
• 430pm to 630 pm, weekdays

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Now, ask questionsProfile!

• Where are my other health clubs?
• Lady of America Fitness, SM Pkwy Quivira
• Do I have victims there?
• No
• What makes Club LaFemme / health clubs an
  attractive target?
• Sense of safety
• No men to confront the suspect
• Large volume of cars in lot
• Targets likely to have items of value
• Customers in/out continually singular focus
• Are other cities experiencing similar incidents?
• (More on this question later in the presentation)

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Next, formulate a plan

• The TARGET profile provides information for
  RESPONSES
• Crime prevention strategies
• Tactical responses (covert / overt)

Objective Stop the occurrence of identified
crime patterns Determine where and when the next
incident will occur
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Crime Prevention Strategies
Work with identified targets to Deter the
crime Eliminate targets, make them less
appealing, use of decoy Detect the crime (in
progress) Potential witness awareness, alarms,
visibility Delay the crime (to allow for
response) Target hardening locks, solid doors,
laminated glass, etc. Displace the crime More
likely to catch him if he is out of his
element/ comfort zone
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Tactical Responses

• Team policing
• (scheduled units)

Directed patrol (special unit or OT)
Task force efforts (team created for project)
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But what about.
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All Those Neat Maps?!?
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Tools in our tool box

• Maps (geographic display)
• Computers / Data / Internet
• Reports
• Tickets Court Records
• School attendance records
• Probation / Parole Information
• Census Information
• Building Permits
• Word of Mouth Officers, Offenders
• Etc., etc., etc.

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But WHO is this all for?
Hopefully not for the birds!
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Crime Analysis Customers

• Patrol Officers
• Detectives
• Command Staff
• City Council
• Public Safety
• City employees
• Citizens
• Daytime (business)
• Nighttime (residents)

Officers
Governing bodies

Community
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Crime Analyst Relationships With other city
service departments Health/Environment
Plan Review Neighborhood Preservations
Engineering Services Community Corrections Traffi
c Services City/County GIS Analysts
WHY? To promote working information sharing to
reduce crime and enhance public safety, security,
and community preservation--everyone must work
together!
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Crime Analyst Relationships

With the community
Publics need for access to police
information Community policing efforts focuses on
establishing a partnership--police and the
community identify and solve community
problems Citizens receiving police data must be
provided assistance in analyzing and interpreting
the data provide comparisons, information on
context to allow citizens to make informed,
logical decisions
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Working for the Public
Distinguish data from information Explain
how to read reports, maps, etc Follow-up on
uses! Contact citizen when info is used
inappropriately! Be sure they understand the
terms you are using. Robbery vs. Burglary Whats
a larceny? What falls under Sex
Offenses? Define time frame, location, and type
of crime
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PUBLIC ACCESS TO POLICE INFORMATION
Our relationship with the citizens, business
community, and neighborhoods
BUSINESS
COMMUNITY
Provide Analytical and graphics support to the
community direct community education and
engagement
Provide information for those looking to move
into a residence, area, or neighborhood
Provide information on crime frequencies, rates,
locations, to investors proposing businesses
CITIZENS
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Evaluating the results
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• Is someone in custody?
• Was there a real change as intended?
• What proportion of that change results from the
  initiative attempted as opposed to coincidental
  events?
• Were there unintended consequences?
• Were the results cost effective?
• Future responses to the same / similar problems
  are often based on the results received from
  prior projects

Good
Success!
Failure
B-
Fair
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Whats Next ?
REGIONAL CRIME ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL CRIME
MAPPING
Regional, multi-agency crime analysis
units KCRAGIS, ISYS (STRIKER)
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Whats Next ?
PUBLIC INFORMATION DATABASES

• Crime Information all publicly accessible as
  information, not data
• Examples Kasper KBI sex offenders

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Whats Next ?
UNION BETWEEN CRIME ANALYSIS CRIME PREVENTION

• Crime Analysis used to forecast events
• Crime Prevention used to prepare possible
  victims / prevent the crime from occurring.

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Whats Next ?
OTHER ISSUES IN CRIME ANALYSIS

• PRIVACY ISSUES \ MAPPING ON THE WEB
• REGISTERED SEX OFFENDER NOTIFICATION
• POLICE/CORRECTIONS RELATIONSHIPS
• CERTIFICATION
• STATE/REGIONAL ASSOCIATIONS

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Contact Information

• Susan C. Wernicke
• Crime Analyst
• Shawnee Police Department
• [phone] x305