Twice the Size: Imagineering the Future of Irish Gateways

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Twice the Size Imagineering the Future of Irish
Gateways

• Urban Forum Colloquium, 17th October 2007

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Introduction

• The aim outline of the colloquium
• Twice the Size The Urban Forum Initiative
• National scenarios
• Future of the gateways
• Emerging territorial future
• Identifying policy recommendations

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Twice the Size The Territorial Imperative

• The Futures Academy, with the School of Spatial
  Planning at DIT, is producing a futures-oriented
  study investigating the likely territorial
  impacts of the challenges that lie ahead for a
  National Spatial Strategy.
• Spatial scenarios elaborated in the Twice the
  Size study should be used to inspire future
  national and local policy processes and gateways
  thinking and action.
• Before long-term policies can be defined or
  improved it is essential that decision-makers be
  made aware of the driving forces of change that
  will shape territorial developments through the
  decades to come.

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Prospective Through Scenarios Process
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The Methods
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Why scenarios?

• Integrated approach towards thinking
• Better understanding of the dynamics of change
• Clues about key moments of change
• Consideration of a fuller range of opportunities
  and threats
• What if? Thinking rehearsing the future
• Reduce vulnerability to surprises
• Perceive a wider range of strategic options
• Strategies exhibit greater resilience and
  flexibility
• More thorough assessment of risks
• Sound basis for continuous monitoring
• Merit of transparency

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The outline of the project events

• NATIONAL
• Briefing Workshop, 16th Oct 06
• National Spatial Scenarios Workshop, 7th Sept 07
• Urban Forum Colloquium, 17th Oct 07
• Strategic interviews with national stakeholders
  throughout the year
• Scanning evaluation of published policy and
  commentary

• GATEWAYS
• Dundalk Workshop, 8th Dec 06
• Cork Workshop, 21st Feb 07
• Limerick Workshop, 29th May 07
• Waterford Workshop, 6th Jun 07
• Sligo Workshop, 19th Jun 07
• Letterkenny Workshop, 21st Jun 07
• Galway Workshop, 5th Jul 07
• Midlands Workshop, 12th Oct 07
• Interviews with local stakeholders throughout the
  year

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21st Century Challenges

• Too Many People
• Not Enough Resources
• It Takes Time
• There Will Be New Technologies
• What's The Risk?

• Redefining The Enemy
• Economics Is Complex
• Détente With Dilemma
• Running The Show
• There Will be Surprises

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21st Century Challenges

• Perhaps the main difference that distinguishes
  the 21st Century from those that preceded it is
• The need to develop a mindset that can tackle
  the conscious design of large systems -
• cities, communities, corporations, countries,
  cultures, domains and the Earth itself.

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Twice the Size Demographic context

• Population growth trends and issues
• The Population of Gateways
• The Constituency Time Bomb
• Size Matters

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Population growth trends issues

• Doubling population implies growth rate of 3
  annually.
• The highest growth achieved so far is 1.58 per
  annum (in the decade to April 2006)
• To complement the natural growth of .7 to .8,
  immigration needs to be 2.2 to 2.3 to achieve
  3 growth.
• Change of the nature of in migration from demand
  pull to supply push world pressures.

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The Population of Gateways
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The Constituency Time Bomb

• GDAs population consists of 39.21 of the State,
  while the main political parties first
  preference regional vote reflect a markedly low
  share Fianna Fail (34.47) Fine Gael (28.21).
• It reflects their rural-centricity focus.
• Dublin is underrepresented in number of TDs.
• In-built time-lag of 5-10 years before population
  growth is reflected in like parliamentary
  representation.
• This will likely result in a sea change with a
  sudden flip towards urban-infused values and
  political representation.

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Size Matters

• Significant problem of scale with gateways
  outside Dublin.
• Eight gateway cities combined make up 533,265
  population, which is just over half of Dublins
  population.
• The six smaller gateway towns (Sligo,
  Letterkenny, Athlone, Mullingar Tullamore
  (ATM), and Dundalk) combined make up a population
  size that is only 63.5 that of Cork.
• Scale difference matters.

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GATEWAYS drivers, uncertainties possible
future paths

• Affected by the same global and national drivers
  of change.
• Focus on whats unique for each gateway.
• Ideas for the overall vision.
• Scenarios for each gateway developed within
  broader national scenarios for Ireland.

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Dundalk drivers and uncertainties

• DRIVERS
• Location in the Dublin-Belfast corridor
• Border location with NI
• Developing renewable energy sector and creative
  media cluster
• High quality of the natural environment
• Very good transport infrastructure

• UNCERTAINTIES
• Return of the troubles in NI
• Changing the negative image of Dundalk
• Levels of integration between NI RoI
• Being more than a commuter town for Dublin /
  Belfast

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Dundalk vision

• New identity for Dundalk highly vibrant, modern
  and green city with a wide range of facilities.
• Development of a renewable energy and clean
  technologies sector.
• Recreational and leisure hub within the
  Dublin-Belfast corridor based on the high quality
  of natural resources.

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Cork drivers and uncertainties

• DRIVERS
• Existing bio-technology cluster
• Impacts of global warming
• Collaboration between the city, UCC and CIT
• Decline in rural population in West Cork Kerry
• Strong food and drink sector
• Collaboration within the CASP (Cork Area
  Strategic Partnership)

• UNCERTAINTIES
• Success of Docklands development
• Achieving the regional balance on national scale
  (success of NSS)
• United entity or unified governance for Cork
• Reliability on FDI
• Flooding extent response

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Cork vision

• Developing Corks brand around water
  recreational use of Lough, the harbour, Docklands
  development, water sold as a resource to others,
  tidal barrages as flood protection, advanced
  water technologies, water based energy
  generation, essential stop for cruise ships
• Cork as a centre for Irishness culture,
  music, creativity, urban heritage and coastal
  landscapes.
• High-value added employment in pharmaceutical and
  food sectors.

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Limerick drivers and uncertainties

• DRIVERS
• Location between Cork Galway
• Shannon airport access to the region
• Negative image of Limerick
• River Shannon as a great resource
• Strong third level education sector UL LIT

• UNCERTAINTIES
• High reliance on FDI, e.g. Dell
• Regeneration of highly disadvantaged areas
• Extension of the boundaries
• Rejuvenation of the city centre
• Major development of Shannon Estuary
• Change of the image

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Limerick vision

• Limerick as a campus city, known worldwide for
  its multicultural learning environment, arts and
  sporting facilities. Centre for languages study.
• Change of Limericks image through successful
  regeneration of the disadvantaged areas,
  rejuvenation of city centre and creation of open
  and friendly environment for non-nationals.
• Non-nationals contribution to business and
  education.
• Use of River Shannon for leisure, sports
  recreation alongside with its protection as a
  source of clean water.

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Waterford drivers and uncertainties

• DRIVERS
• Development of the port
• Location at the end of the Eastern Corridor
• Competing with Cork
• Drainage of the young and educated population
• Boundary tensions with Kilkenny
• Improvement of accessibility

• UNCERTAINTIES
• WIT gets university status!!
• Development of the airport
• City expansion and repositioning of the city
  centre
• Ability to attract high-value added employment
• Integration of non-nationals

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Waterford vision

• Development of a new identity and brand for
  Waterford building upon the existing features
  (such as Viking origins, Waterford Crystal, Tall
  Ships).
• Regional centre for the South East region
  (education, health and professional services) and
  the southern gateway to the Eastern Corridor
  (proximity to Southern England).
• Garden city vibrant city centre with high
  quality of life, supported by outer lying towns
  and villages for energy, food production, tourism
  products and recreation.

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Sligo drivers and uncertainties

• DRIVERS
• Remote location in respect to Dublin and the rest
  of EU
• Attractive location for tourism and people
  looking for quality of life
• Decline in population ageing population profile
• Development of cultural quarter around the Model
  Gallery

• UNCERTAINTIES
• Integration between NI RoI
• Dependence on the multinationals pharma
  medical devices sectors
• Improved accessibility to the rest of Ireland /
  world
• Changes in the agriculture
• Government commitment to regional development

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Sligo vision

• Sligo offers highest quality and slower pace of
  life - a combination of outstanding natural
  environment and creative, diverse and tolerant
  society.
• Eco image (renewable energy, organic farming,
  green tourism).
• Collaboration of Sligo IT with local businesses
  and communities in order to foster innovative
  solutions and entrepreneurship.

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Letterkenny drivers and uncertainties

• DRIVERS
• Relationship with Derry NI
• Significant non-national population (15)
• Good collaboration of local stakeholders
• People relocating to Donegal for quality of life
  reasons
• Prime conditions for tourism and renewable energy
  generating

• UNCERTAINTIES
• Good access to Dublin and the rest of the world
• Retaining quality of life during times of strong
  growth
• Derry/NI growing at expense of Letterkenny
• Ability to develop stable employment base
• Return of violence in NI

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Letterkenny vision

• We are different up here strong identity and
  distinctiveness from the rest of Ireland.
  Emphasis on quality of life good work-life
  balance. People and environment as the main
  focus.
• Growth of tourism based on natural beauty,
  heritage, culture and specific tourism product.
• Development in synergy with Derry NI trade,
  investment, transport links.

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Galway drivers and uncertainties

• DRIVERS
• High population growth
• Strongly recognised image linked to arts and
  culture
• Location within the Atlantic Corridor and the
  West (high quality of natural environs)
• Development of creative industries
• Pressure on natural amenities agricultural land
  arising from overdevelopment

• UNCERTAINTIES
• Ability to retain ICT medical devices sectors
• Plannings ability to provide high quality urban
  environments to cater for high rates of growth
• Risk associated with impacts of climate change
  flooding
• Becoming a centre for ocean-based energy

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Galway vision

• Development of indigenous industry based on arts
  and crafts, creative sector and multicultural and
  multilingual population. Translation of the
  creative spirit of Galway into innovative
  solutions for high quality natural and built
  environment.
• Collaboration of NUI Galway and GMIT with
  industry to develop ICT, cultural tourism, life
  sciences and medical devices sectors.
• Renewable energy potential wind and wave.

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Midlands drivers and uncertainties

• DRIVERS
• Location in the middle of Ireland
• 3 different towns in 2 counties developing
  Midlands identity collaboration
• Bogs - energy resource
• AIT cluster of medical devices ICT industries
  around it

• UNCERTAINTIES
• Ability to retain population encourage its
  growth
• Development of an airport (movement out of
  Dublin)
• Provision of renewable (cheap) energy for
  potential investors
• Effects of improved transport links

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Midlands vision

• Potential for the development of support
  services, such as waste treatment management,
  water processing, energy generation and logistic
  hub.
• Provision for alternative lifestyles, such as
  country living, niche activities and sports in
  proximity to large urban areas.
• AIT as a driver for developing new technological
  centres of excellence in the Midlands,
  nanotechnology perhaps?

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Emerging territorial future

• Eastern Corridor Key drivers
• The political and economic integration of the two
  parts of the Ireland.
• The weak urban structure outside the
  Dublin-Belfast conurbation.
• The economic strength of the Greater Dublin Area
  with availability of infrastructure and proximity
  to the UK and Europe.

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National Spatial Scenarios

• East-West Divide Dublin Belfast corridor will
  increase momentum in terms of urban development
  population concentration aided by the increased
  political, economic cultural integration
  between NI RoI. This will be driven by
  increases in the infrastructure capacity
  improved transport connections between Dublin
  Belfast.
• Atlantic Gateway Atlantic Gateway has achieved
  critical mass by combining Cork, Limerick, Galway
  Waterford is providing counterweight to
  Dublin. This was assisted by increasing
  congestion of GDA slow economic integration
  between NI RoI. Improved transport links
  between the gateways. Shannon airport serving
  long haul flights.
• Urban Sprawl Sprawl continues unabated,
  encouraged by congestion of GDA. People moving
  further out. Edge city dispersed employment
  nodes reduce commuting times. Sprawl encouraged
  by policy to allow one-off housing. Weak urban
  structure.

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Eastern Corridor - the most robust option

• Three possible alternative scenarios for Ireland
  Eastern Corridor, Atlantic Gateway and Urban
  Sprawl.
• Eastern Corridor as most likely and robust
  option.
• Atlantic Corridor requires strong public
  investment, not robust in the times of economic
  decline.
• Urban Sprawl vulnerable in energy
  shortages/high prices situation and unsustainable
  for cutting the carbon emissions.

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Transversal transport network

• Is the radial model ill-conceived?
• Development of a transversal transport network
  running in West-East direction.
• Potential for linking all parts of Ireland to the
  Eastern corridor within a 40 minute travel time.

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Risks associated with the current policies

• Planning policies fighting trends are often
  doomed to fail.
• Shift of population from rural to urban. As a
  result political support for shifting resources
  from East to West may not be there in the future,
  as the voters base becomes increasingly urban.
• NSS concentrated on the weak pupils in the
  class?
• Counties growing the fastest in the past five
  years, were these without the gateways.

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The Gateways Population story to date

• 10 out of 26 counties contain a gateway town/city
• In only 4 counties (Galway, Louth, Offaly
  Westmeath) the population growth since 2002 was
  above the average.
• In other 6 counties was below, often
  significantly, the national average.
• Out of non-gateway 16 counties, in only 4
  counties growth was below the average (Kerry,
  Mayo, South Tipperary Monaghan).
• In other 12 counties growth was above the
  average.
• Counties without a designated gateway have
  generally done better in attracting population
  growth!

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What about the gateways?

• Gateways of the West not competing with but
  complementing Dublin.
• Gateways as niche markets serving the demands
  related to leisure, quality of environment and
  cultural identity, while Eastern coast becoming
  increasingly globalised.
• Main opportunity lies in developing unique
  functions, e.g.
• Cork city based around water
• Galway city of performing arts
• Sligo based on literature and breath-taking
  landscapes
• Midlands back office for the Eastern
  Corridor

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Twice the Size? Or Half the Size?

• Preferred vision
• Need to review the critical mass argument in
  Balanced Regional Development.
• Testing of planning and infrastructure policies
  against the possible development of a single
  urban centre along the Eastern seaboard.
• Gateways outside the Eastern Corridor should be
  encouraged to develop distinctiveness instead
  of population growth.

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Values, Visions and Vectors for Collaborative
Leadership

How can Ireland prepare for possible futures that
could develop? How can the gateway cities and
towns prepare and position themselves for
possible futures that could emerge?