Underlying Science and Technology Workforce Statistics and Trends

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Underlying Science and Technology Workforce
Statistics and Trends

• Paula E. Stephan
• Burroughs Wellcome Fund
• February 27, 2003

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Four Dimensions

• Change in international composition of Ph.D.s
• Change in gender composition of Ph.D.s
• Change in composition of underrepresented
  minorities of Ph.D.s
  
• Change in career outcomes of recent doctoral
  recipients
  
• Data come from Survey of Earned Doctorate and
  Survey of Doctorate Recipients, SRS, NSF. SE
  includes life sciences, physical sciences, earth
  sciences, math, computer science and engineering.
  Excluded are psychology and the social sciences.

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International Issues

• Changing composition of doctoral recipients
• Countries of origin of U.S. awarded Ph.D.s
• Countries of origin special registration
• Stay rates of Temporary Residents
• Composition of U.S. workforce by birth origin
• Contributions of foreign-born to U.S. Science
• Changing patterns in Ph.D. production abroad

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Figure shows

• Dramatic increase in the number of Ph.D.
  recipients holding temporary visas during the
  period 1981-1992
  
• Followed by a decline and then a moderate
  increase
  
• In 1981 fewer than 2,500 Ph.D. recipients in SE
  held temporary visas (20 of all those receiving
  Ph.D.s in SE)
  
• By 1992 number stood at close to 7,000 (38.4 of
  all Ph.D.s awarded in SE that year)

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Figure shows - continued

• By 1999 number had decreased by approximately
  1,000, with temporary-visa recipients receiving
  slightly more than 32 of all Ph.D.s awarded in
  SE that year
• Decrease undoubtedly related to passage of the
  Chinese Student Protection Act of 1992, which
  permitted Chinese nationals temporarily residing
  in the U.S. to switch to permanent-resident status

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Fields of Growth

• Growth has been especially dramatic in the fields
  of
  
• the biological and agricultural sciences (13 to
  26 from 1981 to 1999)
  
• math and computer sciences (23.5 to 39 from
  1981 to 1999)
  
• Change less dramatic in engineering, but
  proportion is substantial, hitting a high of
  50.5 in 1991 and closing the decade at 39.6

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Proportion of Temporary Residents Receiving SE
Ph.D.s in the U.S. in the 1990s by Country of Cit
izenship

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Particularly Striking

• Large concentration of Ph.D. recipients from
  Asia
  
• 60 come from four countries Peoples Republic
  of China (21.0) Taiwan (13.7) India (12.2)
  and South Korea (11.1)
  
• Next six most frequent countries are
  geographically dispersed (Canada, Brazil, Turkey,
  Greece, Germany and Mexico)
  
• Recipients from these six countries collectively
  make up less than 11 of doctoral recipients with
  temporary visas. Indeed, the distribution is so
  highly skewed that no countries fall in the range
  of 3.0 to 11.0

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Paula Stephan
SE Ph.D.s Earned during 1981-99 by Temporary
Residents who are Citizens of Countries Considere
d for Increased Security Monitoring
Source NSF/SRS, Survey of Earned Doctorates,
1981-99 ssuppressed (5 or less doctorate recip
ients during the period, or reporting would
permit counts of 5 or less to be inferred)
Djibouti is excluded from the overall totals to
prohibit inference of its suppressed counts
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Paula Stephan
SE Ph.D.s Earned during 1981-99 by Temporary
Residents who are Citizens of Countries
Considered for Increased Security Monitoring
continued
Source NSF/SRS, Survey of Earned Doctorates,
1981-99 ssuppressed (5 or less doctorate recip
ients during the period, or reporting would
permit counts of 5 or less to be inferred)
Djibouti is excluded from the overall totals to
prohibit inference of its suppressed counts
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Paula Stephan
Summary for 25 Targeted Countries

• Total of 10,234 represents
• 10.8 of SE Ph.D.s awarded to temporary
  residents during 1981-99
  
• 3.2 of all SE Ph.D.s awarded in the U.S. during
  1981-99
  
• Egypt, Iran, and Pakistan account for 44.9 of
  the 10,234 SE Ph.D.s awarded during 1981-99 to
  the 25 targeted countries Iran alone accounts
  for 20.0.
• Substantial declines in 1990s from Iraq, Iran and
  Egypt increases from Pakistan, Indonesia and
  Lebanon.
  
• List now out of date. Recent inclusions are
  Turkey and Bangladesh Djibouti not on list.

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Stay-Patterns of Temporary Resident-Ph.D.
Recipients
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Point to Note

• Stayers stay.
• Mike Finn finds that 51 of the 1994-95 U.S. SE
  doctorate recipients with temporary visas were
  still in U.S. in 1999. Only in social sciences
  was rate below 50.

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Particularly Striking

• Stay rates have increased over time
• Stay rates are fairly constant across
  disciplines
  
• Stay rates vary considerably by country Are
  highest for China and India lowest for Brazil
  and Mexico
  
• Higher stay rates are one reason that U.S.
  science and engineering workforce has become
  increasingly composed of individuals who are
  foreign-born

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International Origins of Workforce All Doctoral
Trained

• In 1980 18.3 of all doctoral-trained scientists
  in U.S. were foreign born.
  
• In 1990 24.7 of all doctoral-trained scientists
  in U.S. were foreign born.
  
• 2000 number not yet available.

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International Origins of Workforce Doctoral
Trained in U.S.

• Between 1973-1997 citizen doctorates working in
  science in U.S. grew 300
  
• Between 1973-1997 immigrant doctorates working in
  U.S. grew 760.
  
• Raises question of contribution of foreign-born
  to U.S. science

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Do Foreign-born Scientists and Engineers
Contribute Disproportionately to U.S. SE?

• Study examined individuals who have made
  exceptional contributions to U.S. SE.
  Indicators used include election to NAS, most
  cited author, author of a hot paper, author of a
  citation classic
• Technique involved determining birth and
  educational origin of the individuals and then
  testing to see if individuals making exceptional
  contributions were disproportionately foreign
  born and foreign educated, given their underlying
  representation in the U.S. SE workforce.

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Conclude

• Individuals making exceptional contributions to
  U.S. science have been disproportionately drawn
  from foreign born.
  
• Also find disproportionately drawn from foreign
  educated.
  
• U.S. has benefited from inflow of foreign-born
  and foreign-educated talent.

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International Students Have Increasing
Opportunities to Study Elsewhere

• Ph.D. production outside the U.S. is growing
  faster than within U.S.
  
• Composition of this by non-citizens.
• Source countries and stay rate patterns outside
  the U.S.
  

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South Korea
China
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Source and Stay Rates Differ Outside U.S.

• Major source of UK international students earning
  doctoral degrees is Germany. China makes up only
  4 of SE graduate students in U.K.
  
• Major source regions of French international
  graduate students are Africa and Latin America,
  not Asia.
  
• Stay rates are considerably lower in UK than
  U.S. somewhat lower in France.

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Role of Women and Under-Represented Minorities in
STEM

• Examine proportion of U.S.-citizen-Ph.D.
  recipients who are women or come from an
  underrepresented minority.
  
• Define underrepresented minority as CEOSE does
  African Americans, native Americans, Hispanics
  and other. Exclude Asians.
  
• Specific institutions playing a key role

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Particularly Striking

• Increase of women in life sciences
• Minimal increase of women in earth sciences math
  and computer sciences
  
• Many of the gender patterns that are frequently
  cited include social sciences and psychology in
  the definition of SE. Excluding these fields
  changes pattern somewhat.

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Top Ten Institutions Awarding SE Doctorate
Degrees, 1981-99
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Particularly Striking

• Changes in composition of underrepresented
  minorities in STEM have been modest
  
• Have been largest in life sciences and
  engineering.
  
• Even top producing institutions, have awarded few
  Ph.D.s to underrepresented minorities.

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Career Prospects

• How have job prospects changed over time in terms
  of
  
• Tenure track
• Government
• Industry
• Other including postdoctoral appointments.
• First across all SE fields for those who have
  been out 5 or more years.
  
• Then focus by field for those 5-6 years from
  degree

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Particularly Striking

• Large increase in proportion working in other
  sector. This includes positions as post docs.
  
• Significant decline in prospects of holding a
  tenure track position.
  
• Increase in probability of working in industry
  but varies by field.

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Summary

• Increase in number of degrees awarded in U.S. has
  come primarily from international students and
  women.
  
• Minimal increase in numbers of underrepresented
  minorities receiving Ph.D.s in STEM.
  
• International students increasingly have
  opportunity to receive degrees outside the U.S.,
  including remaining in their home country.
  
• Prospects of working in a tenure-track position
  have declined for new Ph.D.s.