Chemical Weapons

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Chemical Weapons

• How are they unconventional?

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I. History of CW See Readings

• Note the process of agent escalation tear gas
  ? chlorine ? phosgene ? mustard ? lewisite, etc.
  
• Note also the efforts to control CW
• Finally, compare military effects of CW to
  conventional explosives

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II. Effects of CW

• Distinction between protected / unprotected
  targets CW seldom kills protected troops.
  
• Specific Agents Have Different Effects

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1. Poison Gas Blood Gases and Pulmonary Agents

• Casualties High within small areas
• Uses on the battlefield Quickly dispersed by
  wind and diluted by air
  
• Recent uses Used for executions in enclosed
  areas, used by Iraqi insurgents

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d. Sources of Condemnation

• Use for executions and mass murder (Holocaust)
• Secondary effect on medical personnel during
  surgery (release of toxic gases)
  
• Agent Escalation and Mass casualties in WW I

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2. Vesicants

• Casualties
• Mustard Few in short-term but many over long
  period. High proportion of wounded to killed.
  
• Lewisite Many casualties quickly death can
  occur within minutes.
  
• Uses on the battlefield Mass casualties to
  overload medical systems, force use of bulky CW
  equipment, secondary area contamination
  
• Recent uses Most common agents used in modern
  wars (Yemen, Iran-Iraq)

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d. Sources of Condemnation

• Invisibility of threat Soldiers can acquire
  lethal doses without realizing it, then die
  painfully days later
  
• Nature of injuries Blistering and burns.
  Example (Iranian casualty from Iraqi mustard
  attack)

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3. Nerve Agents

• Casualties Very high within area of exposure.
  Decline with distance and time
  
• Uses on the battlefield Mass fatalities, Area
  contamination, force use of bulky CW equipment
  
• Recent uses Iraqi use against Kurds, Aum
  Shinrikyo
  
• Sources of condemnation Invisibility,
  pre-existing norms against CW

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4. Incapacitants (CS, BZ, Fentanyl)

• Casualties Designed to temporarily disable
  without killing. Overdoses can be lethal.
  
• Uses on the Battlefield Flush enemies from
  bunkers, disable command/control, avoiding
  civilian deaths in riots and hostage rescue
  situations
• Recent Uses US in Vietnam, Iraq against Iran and
  Kurds, Waco and Moscow theater sieges
  
• Sources of condemnation Agent escalation in WW I
  and subsequent conflicts

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III. The Law of CW Use (Proliferation will come
later)

• Declaration of St. Petersburg (1868) Renounces
  use of small (inflammable projectiles in war (explosive
  bullets) between signatories
• Hague Convention (1899) Renounces use of
  projectiles that diffuse asphyxiating or
  deleterious gases (Germany claims chlorine
  cylinder attack doesnt violate later claims
  Mustard isnt a gas)

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C. Geneva Protocol (1925)

• Prohibited the use of "asphyxiating gas, or any
  other kind of gas, liquids, substances or similar
  materials
  
• Only applied to interstate wars (states reserved
  the right to use CW against their own people or
  colonies)
  
• Many nations reserve right to retaliate against
  violators
  
• Ambiguous use of other is interpreted to allow
  nonlethal CW

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D. The Chemical Weapons Convention

• Outlaws all use of CW agents except
• 1. Industrial, agricultural, research, medical,
  pharmaceutical or other peaceful purposes
  
• 2. Protective purposes, namely those purposes
  directly related to protection against toxic
  chemicals and to protection against chemical
  weapons
• 3. Military purposes not connected with the use
  of chemical weapons and not dependent on the use
  of the toxic properties of chemicals as a method
  of warfare
• 4. Law enforcement including domestic riot
  control purposes.
  
• Note that riot control agents are now prohibited
  in warfare
  
• Also note that toxic chemicals are OK if their
  other properties (flammability, explosiveness,
  etc) are the key to their military effectiveness

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E. Which countries can legally use CW?

• Not bound by Geneva Protocol or CWC
• Bahamas (signed CWC but has not ratified)
• Comoros (signed CWC but has not ratified)
• Congo (signed CWC but has not ratified)
• Myanmar (signed CWC but has not ratified)
• Somalia
• Bound by Geneva Protocol but not CWC
• Central African Republic (signed CWC but has not
  ratified)
  
• Dominican Republic (signed CWC but has not
  ratified)
  
• Guinea-Bissau (signed CWC but has not ratified)
• Israel (signed CWC but has not ratified)
• Angola
• Barbados
• North Korea
• Egypt
• Iraq (bound by UN cease-fire agreement of 1991)
• Lebanon
• Syrian Arab Republic

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III. Are CW WMD?

• Problem Accurate modeling difficult. Examples
• 1. Single release may generate multiple plumes

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2. Buildings affect dispersion
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B. DHS Scenarios

• Mustard/Lewisite released by aircraft over
  stadium of 100,000 people
  
• 150 fatalities 70,000 hospitalized
• Sarin injected into three large office buildings
  using six injectors
  
• 6,000 fatalities (95 of building occupants) 350
  injuries
  

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C. Rough Estimation

• Model plume as if no terrain exists. Plume is
  teardrop-shaped (if wind 10 km/hr) or circular
  (if little wind) from point of release
  
• Plume is more elongated as wind increases, but
  also less concentrated
  
• Divide plume into zones
• Assign each zone a lethality level ( killed)
  based on likely dose
  
• Estimate of people in each zone and apply
  lethality levels to determine deaths

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Sample Lethality Table
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D. Persistence Difficult to estimate economic
damages or area-denial importance

• Since attacks have little effect on protected
  targets, real intent is often to degrade
  efficiency through contamination (requires bulky
  protective gear)

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E. Chemicals compared to bioweapons and nuclear
weapons
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F. Example Attack on NYC(Kings County Census
Tracts)
Map Approx. 7 miles across
0 1 2 3
4 5 6
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Wind 15 MPH
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Attack Parameters

• Nerve Gas (Sarin) sprayed at ground level from
  trucks over 2-block area
  
• About 2000 Gallons used

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Point of attack
0 1 2 3
4 5 6
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Wind 15 MPH
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Plume by Time
3 minutes
6 minutes
12 minutes
0 1 2 3
4 5
Wind 15 MPH
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Plume by Time
3 minutes
6 minutes
12 minutes
0 1 2 3
4 5
Wind 15 MPH
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Next Step Figure out how many are in each plume
area

• Zooming in on affected area.

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Next Step Figure out how many are in each plume
area

• Averaging Population per Census Tract

Average People 845 2363 3717 5649 10934
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Next Step Figure out how many are in each plume
area

• Count Census Tracts in each zone

AvePop 0-3 m 3-6 m 6-12 m 845 1 0 5 2363 2 7
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3717 0 4 4 5649 0 .75 1.5 10934 .67 0 1
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How many were exposed?

• Simple model assumes no protection as if
  everyone was standing outside

AvePop 0-3 m 3-6 m 6-12 m
845 1 0 5 2363 2 7 13 3717 0 4 4 5649
0 .75 1.5
10934 .67 0 1
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How many were exposed?

• Multiply number of tracts by average tract
  population..

AvePop 0-3 m 3-6 m 6-12 m
845 845 0 4225 2363 5726 16541 30719 3717
0 14868 14868 5649 0 4237 8474 10934 7326 0
10934
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How many were exposed?

• Multiply number of tracts by average tract
  population..

AvePop 0-3 m 3-6 m 6-12 m
845 845 0 4225 2363 5726 16541 30719 3717
0 14868 14868 5649 0 4237 8474 10934 7326 0
10934 TOTALS 13897 35646 69220
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Compare to average lethality for each zone

• Problem requires data on aerosol dispersion
  given wind speed and quantities used.
  Pre-calculated tables best.
  
• Sample data for Sarin
• 3 min zone 30 dead
• 3-6 min zone 15 dead
• 6-12 min zone 5 dead

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Adding up deaths