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Global Warming Facts and Myths

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It s still cold! http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html#q9 FACT http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ FACT The committee was also asked to ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Global Warming Facts and Myths


1
Global Warming Facts and Myths
  • Scott A. Mathews, Ph.D.
  • The Catholic University of America

2
(No Transcript)
3
The Information Problem
  • Who should you believe?
  • Is the internet a reliable source of information?
  • Who has an agenda or vested interest?
  • Does the man in the street understand the
    science.
  • Where can you find reliable facts on the subject?

OPINION
4
Why should you believe me?
  • I am a real scientist
  • B.S. Physics
  • M.S. Engineering
  • Ph.D. Engineering
  • 20 years of RD
  • More 40 scientific publications
  • Every significant statement in this presentation
    is labeled as either FACT or OPINION
  • All FACTS site a specific source.
  • All sources are hyperlinked so you can see the
    original document with single mouse-click
  • I receive no funding from
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  • Green Peace
  • The Oil-Gas-Coal Industry
  • Al Gore, George Bush, Dick Chaney
  • Hippies
  • The Alternative Energy Industry

FACT
5
How do you know what to believe?
  • Unfortunately, you cant believe any single,
    individual scientist.
  • The world is full of quacks, and scientist are
    not immune.
  • The scientific method is based publication, peer
    review, and independent confirmation.
  • Trust professional scientific societies.
  • Trust reputable, peer reviewed, scientific
    journals.

OPINION
6
Some Background and Some Definitions
  • Global Warming An increase in the average
    measured temperature of the Earths near surface
    air and oceans.
  • Anthropogenic Global Warming Global warming
    specifically attributable to human activity.
  • CO2 Related Global Warming Anthropogenic global
    warming specifically attributable to increased
    levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.
  • Greenhouse Effect A commonly observed principle
    of physics that results in the build-up of
    thermal energy in closed systems with specific
    optical properties.

MY DEFINITIONS
7
  • SoWhat are the facts?

8
Global Warming Is the Earth Getting Warmer?
http//environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/
climate-change/dn11639
FACT
9
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.
html
http//www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadC
RUT3_accepted.pdf
FACT
10
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
FACT
11
Global warming my _at_! Its still cold!
12
Effects of Global Warming
  • Global Warming does not mean that you and I
    will notice an increase in temperatures.
  • Most experts believe that an increase in average
    global temperatures will lead to more anomalous
    weather events more extreme weather.
  • Some models predict temperate regions undergoing
    a mini-ice age.
  • Many experts have stopped using the term Global
    Warming and now use the term Climate Change.

13
http//lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.
htmlq9
FACT
14
Arctic Sea Ice
http//nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/
FACT
15
Ice Free Arctic?
The committee was also asked to analyze any
changes in roles and missions of polar
icebreakers in the support of all national
priorities, including consideration of ongoing
and predicted environmental change, and to assess
whether changes are needed to the existing laws
governing U.S. Coast Guard polar icebreaking
operations to address potential new missions and
new operating regimes.
Economic activity is predicted to increase and
move northward as a result of sea-ice retreat.
http//books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id11753
page5
FACT
16
Boulder Glacier Glacier National Park, MT
1932
Jerry DeSanto photo
1988
T. J. Hileman photo Courtesy of GNP archives
FACT
26/150
USGS Repeat Photography Project http//nrmsc.usg
s.gov/repeatphoto/
17
FACT
http//www.whrc.org/resources/online_publications/
warming_earth/scientific_evidence.htm
18
  • Scientific Consensus
  • Journals
  • Examined 928 Peer reviewed journal papers
    published between 1993 and 2003
  • Six Categories
  • explicit endorsement
  • mitigation
  • evaluation of impact
  • methods
  • paleoclimate analysis
  • explicit rejection
  • First 2 categories imply anthropogenic global
    climate change.
  • 3 implies climate change, but not necessarily
    anthropogenic
  • 4 5 do not endorse
  • 75 of papers fall into the first 3
  • 25 of papers fall into 4 5
  • ZERO papers fall into category 6!

www.sciencemag.org
FACT
19
Statements by Concurring Organizations http//en.w
ikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    2007
  • InterAcademy Council Joint science academies
    statement 2007, 2005, 2001 International Council
    of Academies of Engineering and Technological
    Sciences
  • European Academy of Sciences and Arts
  • Network of African Science Academies
  • National Research Council (US)
  • European Science Foundation
  • American Association for the Advancement of
    Science
  • Federation of American Scientists
  • World Meteorological Organization
  • American Meteorological Society
  • Royal Meteorological Society (UK)
  • Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic
    Society
  • Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
  • Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric
    Sciences
  • International Union for Quaternary Research
  • American Quaternary Association
  • Stratigraphy Commission of the Geological Society
    of London

FACT
20
Statements by Concurring Organizations http//en.w
ikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus
  • American Society for Microbiology
  • American Public Health Association
  • American Statistical Association
  • Engineers Australia (The Institution of Engineers
    Australia)
  • Federal Climate Change Science Program (US)
  • Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences
  • Geological Society of America
  • American Geophysical Union
  • American Astronomical Society
  • American Institute of Physics
  • American Physical Society
  • American Chemical Society
  • International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
  • International Union of Geological Sciences
  • European Geosciences Union

FACT
21
Statements by Noncommittal Organizations http//en
.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus
  • American Association of State Climatologists

FACT
22
Statements by Dissenting Organizations http//en.w
ikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus
  • American Association of Petroleum Geologists
    (2006)

OLD FACT
23
Statements by Noncommittal Organizations http//en
.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus
  • American Association of State Climatologists
  • American Association of Petroleum Geologists
    (2007)

FACT
24
Statements by Dissenting Organizations http//en.w
ikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus
  • ??

25
Statements by Dissenting Organizations http//en.w
ikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus
With the July 2007 release of the revised
statement by the American Association of
Petroleum Geologists, no remaining scientific
body of national or international standing is
known to reject the basic findings of human
influence on recent climate.
FACT
http//dpa.aapg.org/gac/statements/climatechange.p
df
26
My Interpretation of the Facts
  • The Earth is getting warmer.
  • Climate change has already started.
  • Few reputable scientists (if any) reject this
    conclusion.
  • It is very highly likely that recent changes in
    climate are due to human activity.
  • There is broad consensus among scientist about
    anthropogenic climate change.
  • The vast majority of scientist believe that CO2
    levels are a major factor affecting climate.
  • There is some real scientific debate as to the
    magnitude of the effect of CO2.
  • There is some real scientific debate over the
    timetable.

OPINION
27
Some Final Thoughts
  • We are not talking about losing some polar bears
    and some beach-front property in Florida.
  • We are talking about changing the very nature of
    the planet and all the life it supports.
  • We dont know, with any certainty, how long it
    will take to reach the tipping point, the point
    of no return.
  • We do know that the process has begun.
  • What are the risks if we try to address this
    problem?
  • What are the risks if we do nothing?

OPINION
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