Net games won (NGW) with Ruth as a hitter

1
Specialization
absolute advantage ability to produce
more comparative advantage ability to produce
at a lower opportunity cost law of comparative
advantage more is produced when resources
specialize according to their comparative
advantage.
Do most athletes have an absolute advantage at
multiple positions or sports? No Which athlete
had an absolute advantage as a pitcher and a
hitter? Babe Ruth
2
BABE RUTHS ABSOLUTE ADVANTAGE AS A HITTER AND
PITCHER1 Babe Ruth broke into the major leagues
with the Boston Red Sox as a pitcher in 1914 but
pitched in only four games that year. He began to
pitch regularly the following year. In 1918, Ruth
began to divide his time between pitching and
every day positions (outfield and first base).
Tables I and 2 contain summary data on Ruths
record with the Red Sox between 1915
and1919. Experts agree that Ruth was not only
the best pitcher on the Red Sox staff in these
years, but was among the finest pitchers in the
major leagues. In his best year, 1916, he led the
American League in earned-run average and
shutouts and finished third in both strikeouts
and wins. Ruth was not only Bostons best, he
was the best pitcher in the league that year,
including Walter Johnson (Creamer 1974,
123). In the 1918 World Series, which the Red
Sox won four games to two against the Chicago
Cubs, Ruth extended his string of consecutive
scoreless innings pitched in World Series play to
twenty-nine (the streak began in the 1916
series), a record that stood for over forty
years. Even as a part-time hitter, Babe hit
eleven home runs in 19i8, good enough to tie for
first in home runs in the American League (see
Table 2). None of his Boston teammates had more
than one home run. Ruth also led Boston in runs
batted in and in batting average. By the
beginning of the 1919 season, Ruth actively
campaigned to play in the lineup every day Ill
win more games playing every day in the outfield
than I will pitching every fourth day (Creamer
1974, 187). The teams management was reluctant
to retire Ruth as a pitcher. Ultimately, however,
Ruth did play 111 games as an outfielder and 4 as
a first baseman in 1919, in addition to 17 as a
pitcher. Of the thirty-three home runs hit by the
Red Sox that year, Ruth hit twenty-nine. His
total not only led the American League but
shattered the previous league record of twelve
(the National League record was twenty-four at
the lime). He also led the league in slugging
average, runs batted in, and fielding average
(Reichier,1985). The Red Sox, beset by financial
problems and declining attendance, sold Ruth to
the New York Yankees in 1920. The Yankees sought
to capitalize on Ruths ability as a power
hitter, as well as a drawing card, by playing him
in right field. Clearly, Ruth had established
himself as the premier power hitter in the major
leagues, Yet, Ruths record with the Red Sox
suggests that he would have been effective as a
pitcher as well. Is it possible that the Yankees
would have been better off (i.e., the teams win
ratio would have been greater) if he had been
used as a pitcher?
1 Did Babe Ruth Have a Comparative Advantage
as a Pitcher? Edward M. Schall, Journal of
Economic Education, Fall 1990.
3
Develop a model that will determine whether
Ruths comparative advantage was as a pitcher or
a hitter for the New York Yankees, i.e., would
the Yankees been better off using Ruth as a
pitcher?
4
Did Babe Ruth Have a Comparative Advantage as a
Hitter or a Pitcher?
5
Net games won with Ruth as a hitter (NWRH)

• What portion of NYY win percent (?) can be
  attributed to Ruth?
• Ruths cont. to ? team AB by Ruth x SA x (?
  ? /?SA)
• .112
  x .777 x .92
• .08
• Calculate ? if Ruth does not hit.
• ? with Ruth - Ruths contribution to ? ? w/o
  Ruth
• .622 - .08
  .542

6
Net games won with Ruth as a hitter (NWRH)

• Calculate the number of games NYY would win if
  Ruth does not hit.
• ? w/o Ruth x no. games played
• .542 x 767
  416
• Actual number of games won by NYY 477
• NWRH 477 - 416 60

7
Net games won with substitute hitter (SH) if Ruth
is a pitcher (NWSH)

• Assume SASH average SA NYY w/o Ruth .412
• SHs cont. to ? team AB by Ruth x SASH x (?
  ? /?SA)
• .112
  x .412 x .92
• .042
• NWSH .042 x 767 32

8
Net games won with if Ruth is a pitcher (NWRP)

• Assume Ruths annual record is same as 1915-1918
  Red Sox record
• 30 decisions
• 19.5 wins
• 10.5 losses
• ? 19.5/30 .650
• Over the 5 year period of 1920 24
• Wins decisions x ? (30x5) x .650 150 x .650
  97.5
• Losses decisions wins 150
  97.5 52.5
• NWRP wins losses 97.5 52.5 45

9
Net games won with as Ruth pitcher and a
substitute hitter (NW)

• NW NWRP NWSH
• NW 45 32 77
• To be indifferent between RP and RH, NWSP 17
  since indifference requires
• NWRH NWSP 77
• 60 NWSP 77
• NWSP 17
• Therefore
• if NWSP gt 17, Ruths comp. adv. is as a hitter
• if NWSP lt 17, Ruths comp. adv. is as a pitcher

10
What ? yields NWSP 17 over the 5 year period?

• 17/5 3.4 net wins per year thus
• W L 3.4 or W L 3.4
• The model assumes 30 decisions per year. Thus
• 30 L W
• 30 L (L3.4)
• 26.6 2L
• L 13.3 and W 13.3 3.4 16.7
• Therefore
• ? 16.7/30 .557

11

• Thus
• ?SP gt .557 ? NWSP gt 17 ? Ruths comp. adv. is as
  a hitter
• ?SP lt .557 ? NWSP lt 17 ? Ruths comp. adv. is as
  a pitcher

Conclusion Given the strength of the Yankees
pitching staff, Ruths comparative advantage was
as a hitter.
12
Did Babe Ruth have a Comparative Advantage as a
Pitcher for Boston?
Summary Table for Boston Red Sox
Year Wins Losses SA
1915 101 50 .339
1916 91 63 .318
1917 90 62 .319
1918 75 51 .327
Totals 357 226 .325
13
Net games won with Ruth as a hitter (NWRH)

• ? w/o Ruth Ruths cont. to ? ? with Ruth as
  hitter
• 357/583 .08
  
• .612 .08
  .692
• NWRH wins w/ RH - wins w/o RH
• (.692 x 583) - 357
• 403 - 357
• 46

14
Net games won with substitute pitcher (SP) if
Ruth is a hitter (NWSP)

• Assume ?SP average ?team w/o Ruth
• wins w/o Ruth 357 78 279
• losses w/o Ruth 226 40 186
• decisions w/o Ruth 279 186 465
• ? w/o Ruth 279/465 .6
• wins by SP (30 x 4) x .6 72
• losses by SP 120 72 48
• NWSP 72 48 24

15
Net games won by Ruth as a pitcher (NWRP)

• NWRP 78 40 38
• Compare
• NWRH 46
• NWSP 24
• 70

NWRP 38 NWSH ? 70
vs.
? 32 ? What SA must the substitute hitter have
for NWSH 32 ?
16
NWSH team AB by Ruth x SA x (? ? /?SA) x
583 32 ( .112 x SA x .92)
x 583 32 SA .532 if SASH gt .532 ? Ruths
comparative advantage is a pitcher if SASH lt .532
? Ruths comparative advantage is a
hitter SA1915-1918 .325
Conclusion Given the weakness of the Red Sox
hitters, Ruths comparative advantage was as a
hitter.