Chapter 6 Nonmarital and Teen Fertility

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Chapter 6Nonmarital and Teen Fertility

• facts and trends
• causes
• consequences

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I. Data trends nonmarital births

• nonmarital fertility rate
• births to unmarried women per 1000 women, age
  15-44
• nonmarital birth ratio
• births to unmarried mothers as a of all births

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• 1940
• 4 of births nonmarital
• 2001
• 33.5 of births nonmarital

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data teen fertility

• 1960s
• most teen births are to young married mothers
• pressure for marriage
• abortion illegal

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• today
• today most teen births are nonmarital
• BUT
• most nonmarital births are NOT to teenage mothers

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II. Causes

• focus on teen fertility
• welfare
• marriage prospects
• abortion contraception
• wages social change

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The role of welfare marriage opportunities

• recall AFDC
• cash benefits to single mothers
• only attractive to low income HH

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rational choice model

• compare utility
• with teen birth UTB
• without teen birth UN
• considers impact on education, work, marriage,
  income

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• If UTB gt UN
• then a teen birth is likely
• If UTB lt UN
• then a teen birth is not likely

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• does more generous welfare lead to more teen
  births
• across states?
• over time?

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evidence

• compare teen fertility across states
• teen fertility rate is NOT higher in states where
  benefits are higher
• figure 6.6

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• compare teen fertility to AFDC benefits over time
• real AFDC benefits fell 1975-95
• but teen nonmarital fertility rose at same time
• figure 6.7

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• conclusions
• AFDC has little or no impact on probability of
  teen birth
• potential future income has a small negative
  impact on probability of teen birth
• both effects are small
• too small to explain changes

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Abortion Contraception

• we observe
• big decline in the shotgun marriage since 1960
• explains over 50 of increase in nonmarital birth
  ratio

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game theory approach

• describe behavior of men women
• difference preferences
• jointly determine outcome

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preferences (w/out abor., cont.)

• Men
• sex w/out marriage promise
• sex w/ marriage
• no sex

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• Type I Women
• cost of pregnancy high
• sex w/ promise
• no sex
• sex w/out promise

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• Type II Women
• pregnancy wanted or low cost
• sex w/promise
• sex w/out promise
• no sex

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what will happen?

• Type I women will not have sex w/out a promise
• men can promise
• men can refuse to promise and try to find Type II
  women
• but men would rather promise than go without

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• if there are few Type II women (20)
• men will end of promising
• Type II women will demand promises knowing men
  will give them
• result a lot of shotgun marriages

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with abortion, contraception

• Type I women will use this
• no long insist on promise,
• men no longer offer the promise,
• Type II women can no longer demand the promise
• result fewer shotgun weddings, rising
  nonmarital birth ratio

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Wages

• rising real wages for women
• single parenting more of an option
• true for older women more than teens

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cohabitation

• a substitute for marital childbearing
• (a common substitute in Europe)
• BUT, not a perfect substitute
• non marital relationships are less stable

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other factors

• many sociological factors that economics does not
  model well

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declining social stigma of single motherhood

• greater acceptance, particularly for older women
• resources for teen mothers
• daycare, programs in special high schools

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status of motherhood

• for teens w/ little else, motherhood gives
• identity as mother
• self-esteem, unconditional love
• attention

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III. Consequences

• studies show teen mothers fare worse than teens
  who do not give birth
• lower incomes
• lower education level
• less likely to be married
• less likely to be employed

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• but why?
• because they gave birth?
• or other factors cause both teen births and poor
  outcomes?

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early studies

• control for measurable differences in teens
• family income, parents education, race
• still find negative effects due to a teen birth
  (but smaller)

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problem w/ early studies

• certain unmeasured factors course affect
• likelihood of teen birth AND
• life outcomes
• examples
• parental involvement, attitudes

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• as a result,
• the impact of teen birth appears larger than it
  really is

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later studies control for this bias

• compare sisters
• one is teen mother, one is not
• compare teen mothers
• single birth to twins
• compare teen mothers to teens who miscarry their
  pregnancy

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sister studies

• teen births 1975-85
• effects of teen births still significantly
  negative
• but less negative than earlier studies

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twins vs. single birth

• negative but small effect to having twins
• but 1vs. 2 children NOT the same as 0 vs. 1 child
• underestimates effect

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miscarriage study

• most controversial
• teen mothers did BETTER than teens who miscarried
  by mid-20s

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• problems
• underreporting of miscarriages
• especially among women who go on to do well
• many in the miscarry group went on to be teen
  mothers
• miscarriage itself may cause negative effects

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conclusion

• poor outcomes of teen mothers due to many
  factors, not just birth
• policy needs to address all factors, not just
  teen pregnancy