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Global Automotive

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Title: Global Automotive


1
Global Automotive
2
Presenter
  • Industry----Frank
  • GM----Raymond
  • Toyota----Angela
  • Volvo---Lillian

3
Global Auto Sales
4
The growing importance of Emerging Market
5
Surprise! Surprise!
  • QUICK EXPANSION
  • The production for the next 20 years will be more
    than whats been made for the entire 110 years of
    auto industry history
  • BRIC, especially China has been, and will be the
    major driving force of global Auto industry
  • Expected to replace Japan as the second largest
    market

6
Continuous Growth in Global Automobile Industry
  • Global Vehicle Ownership Estimation Over 1
    billion units in 2010

7
Major Countries
Click here
8
Major Manufactures
9
Major Manufacturer operating Margin
10
Excess production capacity-NA
11
Industry Characteristics---Major Cost
  • Labour Pension plans
  • N.A companies face a large amount of pension
    cost----approx. 1500 per vehicle
  • Jap companies have none pension cost
  • Material
  • Hundreds of pieces purchased from suppliers
  • Automakers absorb only part of the increase in
    material cost
  • Advertising

12
Cost Breakdown---Typical American
13
Cost Breakdown---Typical American
14
Industry Characteristics---Sales cycle
  • Highly sensitive to aggregate economic
    performance
  • U.S economy will slow down from 3.2 GDP growth
    to about 2
  • The effect of democratic victory in congress??

15
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Industry characteristics---M/A, Alliance
  • Technology, R/D
  • Market penetration
  • Global cooperation

17
Industry characteristics---M/A, Alliance
  • GM---200 Garage Car makers in early
    days
  • ---SAAB, Daewoo
  • ---Isuzu, Subaru, Suzuki
  • Ford---Jaguar, Land Rover, Volvo,
  • ----Mazda
  • Benz---Chrysler
  • Renault---Nissan

18
Porters Five Forces
19
Threat of New entrants
  • Emergence of foreign competitors with Capital,
    technology and management skills
  • Chinese India brands within their own countries

20
Suppliers
  • Had little power before
  • Been hit hard in Major Automaker cost cutting
  • Globalization
  • merger and acquisition
  • Increased tension b/w suppliers and Automakers

21
Supply Chain (traditional)
Tier 3 Raw Material
Tier 2 Small parts
Tier 1 components
OEM Design assemble
22
Supply Chain (emerging)
Raw Material Supplier
Global StandardizedSystems Manufacturer
Component specialist
Systems Integrator
23
Merger of suppliers
24
Outsourcing production---to more suppliers
Percent of Car Value outsourced
25
--Cost cutting requirement of Automakers
Suppliers
26
Suppler (cont)
  • A major suppler Collins Aikman halted delivery
    to Ford on Oct 19th
  • Caused temporary shut down of one of the biggest
    assembly line of Ford
  • Foreseeable---

27
One of the largest supplier Dana has been added
to the list (April 2006)
28
Substitutes
  • Public transportation on the rise

29
Rivalry
  • Fierce competition
  • High competition cost
  • Low return
  • Historically avoid price competition
  • More and More price competition

30
Buyers
  • Historically, the automaker power went
    unchallenged
  • As the market saturate, more options made
    available, buyers have significant amount of
    power

31
Increasing Models and Decreasing Scale, US Market
32
Regulation
  • Regulations
  • Emission standard
  • Safety standard

33
  • European Union ACEA agreement seeks 25
    reduction in vehicle CO2 emissions levels by 2008
    (from 1995 levels). Agreement may be extended an
    additional 10 by 2012.
  • Japan requires 23 reduction in vehicle CO2
    emissions by 2010 (from 1995 levels).
  • Australia voluntary commitment to improve fuel
    economy by 18 by 2010.
  • Canada has proposed a 25 improvement in fuel
    economy by 2010.
  • China Introduced new fuel economy standards in
    2004 weight-based standards to be introduced in
    2 phases (2005 and 2008).
  • California CARB approved GHG emissions
    reductions for automobiles, currently under
    legislative review.
  • New York Clean Cars Bill proposing to follow
    California standards is currently in committee.
    Several other NE states have indicated they will
    follow CAs lead.

34
Comparison of Fuel Economy and GHG Emission
Standards
An and Sauer, 2004 for the Pew Center on Global
Climate Change
35
Aggregate Value ExposureEstimated cost per
vehicle to meet most likely carbon constraint
scenarios in US, EU and Japan
8
25x difference in Value Exposure across the
industry
36
Management Capacity for Low-Carbon Technologies
Measure of OEMs capacity to develop and
commercialize main low-carbon technologies
hybrids, diesels fuel cells
9
37
In addition
  • Political issues
  • Trade barrier
  • tariff
  • Energy crisis
  • OPEC
  • Political Natural reasons
  • Technology development
  • Hybrid, Fuel cells, Hydrogen, Electronic,
    ethanol. Etc
  • System feature design

38
Key success factors
  • Pension fund management
  • How well the company digest whats been eaten
  • Supplier relationship management
  • Risk management (i.e. exchange exposure risk,
    commodity price risk)
  • design, marketing of new models
  • New technology development

39
General Motors
  • Symbol GM
  • Exchange(s) NYSE
  • Industry Consumer Products (Automotive)

40
As of Nov 7, 2006
  • Dividends Per Share 1.00
  • Number of Shares 565,610,000

41
1 Year Chart
42
30 increase within 1 year
43
5 Year Chart
44
20 decrease within 5 years
45
Company Profile
  • The world's largest automaker
  • has been the global industry sales leader for 75
    years
  • employs about 327,000 people around the world
  • manufactures its cars and trucks in 33 countries
  • Engaged in automotive production and marketing
    and financing and insurance operations
  • largest operating presence in North America

46
EXECUTIVE PROFILES
  • G. Richard Wagoner, Jr.GM Chairman Chief
    Executive Officer
  • Since June 2000
  • BA in economics from Duke University
  • MBA from Harvard Business School
  • Frederick (Fritz) A. HendersonGM Vice Chairman
    and Chief Financial Officer
  • BBA from the University of Michigan
  • MBA from Harvard Business School
  • Robert A. LutzGM Vice Chairman, Global Product
    Development
  • BA in production management from the University
    of California-Berkeley
  • MBA from the University of California-Berkeley
  • degree of doctor of management from Kettering
    University

47
Brands
  • Buick
  • Cadillac
  • Chevrolet
  • Fleet Commercial Operations
  • Holden
  • Vauxhall
  • GMC
  • GM Daewoo
  • HUMMER
  • Pontiac
  • Saturn
  • Saab
  • Opel

48
GMAC Financial Services
  • A finance company
  • offers automotive, residential and commercial
    financing and insurance

49
GM's OnStar subsidiary
  • a provider of vehicle safety, security and
    information services
  • use (GPS) satellite and cellular technology to
    link the vehicle and driver to the OnStar Center
  • advisors offer real-time, personalized help 24
    hours a day, 365 days a year

50
Global Partnerships
  • majority shareholder in GM Daewoo Auto
    Technology Co. of South Korea
  • Product, powertrain and purchasing collaborations
    with Suzuki Motor Corp. and Isuzu Motors Ltd. of
    Japan
  • Advanced technology collaborations with
  • DaimlerChrysler AG
  • BMW AG of Germany
  • Toyota Motor Corp. of Japan
  • Vehicle manufacturing ventures with
  • Toyota
  • Suzuki
  • Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. of China
  • AVTOVAZ of Russia
  • Renault SA of France

51
Market
  • GM's largest national market is the United
    States, followed by China, Canada, the United
    Kingdom and Germany

52
GM in 2005
  • One of the most difficult years
  • Reported loss of 10.6 B

53
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  • The size of GMs 2005 loss, most of which related
    to its North American operations

55
Global Sales
  • GM had its second highest sales volume globally
    last year, with nearly 9.2 million vehicles sold
  • More than half of GMs sales globally came
    OUTSIDE the United States
  • In the Asia Pacific region, GM sold more than 1
    million vehicles
  • GM became the No. 1 car manufacturer in China
    along with their joint venture partner
  • Significant growth in Latin America, Africa and
    the Middle East region, with sales up 20 percent
  • Eighth consecutive year of sales leadership in
    region such as Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela, South
    Africa and the Middle East
  • GM Europe cut its losses significantly

56
GM Production Schedule

57
GM Car Deliveries
58
Challenges and Weakness
  • Due to
  • huge legacy cost burden
  • inability to adjust structural costs in line with
    falling revenue
  • global overcapacity
  • falling prices
  • rising health-care costs
  • higher fuel prices
  • reducing demand for some of the highest-profit
    product
  • global competition
  • international exchange rates tend to help
    Japanese and Korean imports

59
  • Rising retiree health care costs and Other Post
    Employment Benefit (OPEB) fund deficit prompted
    the company to enact a broad restructuring plan
  • For every active GM employee in the United States
    last year, GM supported 3.2 retirees and
    surviving spouses
  • GMs health-care bill in 2005 5.3B

60
Financial Burden - Health care and pensions.
  • Number of U.S. retirees and surviving spouses
    who received pension plan benefits
  • Est. number of U.S. employees, dependents,
    retirees and surviving spouses covered by health
    benefits

61
Delphi Chapter 11 proceedings
  • Delphi is an automotive parts company spun-off
    from GM
  • GM recorded a charge of 5.5 billion (3.6
    billion after tax) as an estimate of contingent
    exposures relating to the Chapter 11 filing of
    Delphi Corporation
  • GM receiving only a portion of amounts owed by
    Delphi to GM
  • obligations in excess of amounts recognized by GM
    in 2005 in connection with benefit guarantees

62
Consolidated Results
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64
GM North America
65
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66
GM North America
  • The loss due to
  • declines in sales of higher margin large cars
  • Unfavorable material costs
  • Increased health-care expenses
  • Advertising and sales promotion cost increases
  • restructuring charge

67
GM Europe
68
GM Europe
  • In February 2005, GM successfully bought itself
    out of a put option with Fiat for 2 billion USD
  • Restructuring charges
  • negative pricing
  • unfavorable exchange rates
  • Pricing declines

69
GM LATIN AMERICA/AFRICA/MID-EAST
70
GM LATIN AMERICA/AFRICA/MID-EAST
  • significant industry growth in 2005
  • 19 increase in vehicle unit sales
  • net sales and revenues improved by approximately
    34
  • Lost due to
  • quarter impairment charges of 99 million for
    assets
  • A full valuation allowance charge

71
GM Asia Pacific
72
GM Asia Pacific
  • General Motors is the top-selling foreign auto
    maker in China
  • unit sales in the Asia Pacific region increased
    approximately 6.3
  • the fastest growing automotive region
  • Unit sales increase by 20
  • Lost due to
  • Write-down of GMs investment in FHI (Fuji Heavy
    Industries )
  • asset impairment charges
  • restructuring activities
  • Continue to take advantage of the strong position
    and growth in China, leverage its capabilities at
    GM Daewoo, and execute the turnaround at GMs
    Holden unit

73
GMAC
74
GMAC
  • goodwill impairment charges
  • lower net interest margins

75
North America Turnaround Plan
  • Four-point turnaround plan
  • Keep raising the bar in the execution of great
    cars and trucks
  • Revitalize sales and marketing strategy.
  • Significantly improve cost competitiveness
  • Address health-care and pension legacy cost
    burden.

76
Turnaround Plan Plant and labor reduction
  • cease production at 12 U.S. plants by 2008
  • reduce manufacturing workforce by 30,000
    positions (cumulative reduction to 38 percent )
  • reduce our retiree health-care obligations by
    about 15 billion
  • cap the companys contribution to salaried
    retiree health-care costs
  • modify pension benefits for salaried and
    executive employees
  • reduced salaries of our top executives
  • reduced our dividend by 50 percent
  • Expected to result in annual cost reductions
    totaling 7 billion

77
Consolidated Balance Sheets - Assets
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Consolidated Balance Sheets Liabilities and
Stockholders Equity
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Available Liquidity
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Cash flows from continuing operating activities
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83
Cash flow from continuing financing activities
84
Q3 financial Highlights
85
2006 Q3 Highlights
  • Record Q3 revenue of 48.8B
  • Adjusted EPS 0.93
  • 529 million Adjusted Net Income r
  • 1,643 million improvement vs. Q3 05 Adjusted
    results
  • Significant improvements continue in GME and
    GMLAAM
  • Lower results at GMAC
  • Cash balance of 20.4B at quarter-end,
  • Favorable results in Corporate Other largely
    driven by reduced

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Goals
  • Automotive operations improved by 1.5B on an
    adjusted basis, on strength of cost actions in
    GMNA and continued momentum in other regions
  • On track to achieve 9B structural cost target on
    a running rate basis by the end of 2006 and
    continuing to work on goal to reduce to 25 of
    revenues by 2010
  • Key priority is to finalize negotiations with
    Delphi
  • Continue to be on track to close the GMAC
    transaction in Q4
  • Automotive liquidity remains strong at 20.4B,
    but
  • continued focus on improving operating cash flow

96
Key Success Factors
  1. Continued demand for GMs most profitable
    products and the maintenance of a strong product
    mix
  2. The introduction of innovative new products on a
    timely cadence, through the integration of global
    architectures, engineering, and procurement
    efforts
  3. The implementation of measures for reducing
    structural costs, offsetting legacy and
    health-care burdens
  4. Maintenance of sufficient balance sheet strength
    and liquidity
  5. Other factors affecting GMs Financing and
    Insurance Operations (FIO) reportable operating
    segment results, including interest rates, credit
    ratings, and demand for mortgage financing.

97
Issues to consider
  • GM is the healthiest of the Big Three !!!
  • ability to compete with Asian automakers ???
  • Jerry York !!!
  • GM's accounting subject of inquiry
  • market share in China ???
  • GM vs. Toyota??
  • cash flow problems??
  • High structure cost?
  • Sustainable?

98
Recommendation
  • HOLD

99
Toyota Motor Corporation
100
Company Snapshot
Data as of 08-Nov-06
  • Industry Consumer Products (Automotive)
  • Ticker Symbol TM
  • Listed on NYSE

Stock Price US 123.460
Net Change US 2.250  Change 1.86
52-Week High US 124.000 EPS 7.90
52-Week Low US 89.800 P/E 15.60
  • Dividend Payout 17.25
  • ROA 8.19
  • ROE 13.5
  • of shares outstanding 3,609,997,492 shares

101
Chart - 1 year (daily)
102
Chart 5 years (monthly)
103
Financial Highlights
104
Company Overview
  • Established in 1937
  • Producing vehicles in 26 countries
  • Marketing vehicles in more than 170 countries and
    regions
  • Toyotas Brands Toyota, Lexus, Daihatsu, and
    Hino
  • Sold 8millions vehicles in 2006
  • More than 280,000 employees

105
Management Team
  • Chairman of the Board/Director (since 2006)
  • Fujio Cho (69 years old )
  • Joined Toyota in 1960
  • Director of Aioi Insurance Co., Ltd
  • Director of Central Japan Railway Company
  • Director of Toyota since September 1988
  • President
  • Katsuaki Watanabe (63 years old)
  • Joined Toyota directly from college in 1964
  • Director of Mitsubishi Securities Co., Ltd.
  • Director of Toyota since September 1992
  • Executive VP/Director (since 2005)
  • Mitsuo Kinoshita (60 years old)
  • Joined Toyota in 1968
  • Director of Toyota since June 1997
  • Vice Chairman of the Board of Gamagori Marine
    Development Co. Ltd.

106
Current Business
  • Automotive Operations
  • Japan
  • North America
  • Europe
  • Asia and other regions
  • Financial Services Operations
  • Auto sales financing
  • Retail sales of corporate bonds
  • Investment trusts
  • Asset development services for individuals
  • Housing loans
  • Insurance
  • Other Business Operations
  • Manufactured housing
  • Advertising e-Commerce services
  • Industrial aerospace equipment
  • Marine equipment

107
Consolidated Segment Information
  • Revenues segmented by business operations

108
Revenues by Business Operations
Yen in millions
2006
By Business Operations
Revenues
Automotive 19,338,144
Financial Services 996,909
All Others 1,190,291

Operating Income
Automotive 1,694,045
Financial Services 155,817
All Others 39,748
109
Automotive Operations
  • Revenues
  • 19,338.1 billion (13.0)
  • Operating income
  • 1,694.0 billion (16.6)
  • Causes
  • Currency exchange rate fluctuations
  • Increases in vehicle production and sales
  • Cost reduction activities
  • Minus the higher expenses resulting from business
    expansion

110
Vehicle Production and Sales
111
Sales and Production Distribution
112
Products Distribution
113
Manufacturing Companies Distribution
114
Vehicle Production and Sales
115
Market Shares
116
Vehicle Sales Projection by Region
117
Financial Services Operations
118
Financial Services Operations (contd)
  • Revenues
  • 996.9 billion (27.6)
  • Causes
  • Higher financing volume from increasing vehicle
    sales
  • Toyota has the highest credit rating in SPs and
    Moodys
  • Operating income
  • 155.8 billion ( 22.4)
  • Causes
  • Valuation losses on interest rate swaps
  • Accounting adjustment in 2005 for loan
    origination costs by a sales finance subsidiary
    in the US

119
Other Business Operations
  • Revenues
  • 1,190.3 billion (15.5)
  • Operating income
  • 39.7 billion (17.8)
  • Causes
  • Favorable production and sales in the housing
    business

120
Consolidated Segment Information
  • Revenues segmented by region

121
Revenues by Region
Yen in millions
2006
By Region
Revenues
Japan 7,735,109
North America 7,455,818
Europe 2,574,014
Asia 1,836,855
Other Regions 1,435,113

Operating Income
Japan 1,075,890
North America 495,638
Europe 93,947
Asia 145,546
Other Regions 67,190
122
Threats
  • Hikes in crude oil price
  • Hikes in raw materials price
  • Fluctuations in currency exchange rates and
    interest rates
  • Structural changes in demand for automobiles
  • Change governmental regulations in automotive
    industry
  • Political instabilities
  • Fuel shortages or interruptions in transportation
    systems
  • Natural calamities, wars, terrorism
  • Labor strikes

123
Competitive Strengths
  • Superior Quality
  • Brand Image safe, environmental friendly
  • Cost competitive
  • RD - Technology leader
  • Fuel-efficient vehicles
  • Solid financial base
  • Personnel development

124
Cost Reduction Strategies
125
Solution to Hike in Oil Price
  • Hybrid Vehicles
  • Prius has become the top selling hybrid car in
    America.
  • Toyota now has three hybrid vehicles in its
    lineup
  • Prius
  • Highlander
  • Camry
  • The popular minivan Toyota Sienna is supposed to
    join the hybrid lineup by 2010.

126
Financial Statements
  • Annual Balance Sheet
  • Annual Income Statement
  • Annual Cash Flows Statement
  • Semiannual Balance Sheet
  • Semiannual Income Statement
  • Semiannual Cash Flows Statement

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Selected Financial Summary (Contd)
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Semiannual Report Released on Nov. 7, 2006
136
Semiannual Report Released on Nov. 7, 2006
137
Semiannual Report Released on Nov. 7, 2006
138
Semiannual Report Released on Nov. 7, 2006
139
Semiannual Report Released on Nov. 7, 2006
140
Future Strategies
  • Enhancing technology development capabilities
    centered on environmental technology
  • Increasing production through the advancement of
    localization

141
Expand Production Capacity
142
Future Strategies by Region
143
Recommendation
BUY
144
Volvo Group
145
Company Snapshot Data as of Nov-02-06
Last  US 62.420 Net Change US -0.240 Change -0.38 Last  US 62.420 Net Change US -0.240 Change -0.38 Last  US 62.420 Net Change US -0.240 Change -0.38 Last  US 62.420 Net Change US -0.240 Change -0.38
Open 62.240 Bid 0.010
High 62.690 Ask 2,000,000
Low 61.930 EPS 4.64
Volume 19,506 P/E 13.5
52 Week High 63.290 Yield 0.00
52 Week Low 40.800 Div. 0.00
Shares 404.8M
146
Company Snapshot
  • 3 year weekly chart
  • 5 year weekly chart

147
Stock Analysis (Volvo VS Market)
  • 2 Year
  • 1 Year

148
Competitor
Volvo Paccar
Market Cap 26.60B 14.90B
Employees 81,860 21,900
Qtrly Rev Growth 10.20 18.80
Revenue 35.93B 15.86B
Gross Margin 22.83 15.43
EBITDA 4.58B 2.42B
Oper Margins 8.13 12.61
Net Income 1.93B 1.43B
EPS 4.761 (404.8M) 5.651 (248.30M )
P/E 13.80 10.62
P/S 0.73 0.93
149
Management Team
  • Leif Johonsson
  • 43,538 Series B shares and 50,000 employee stock
    options
  • President and CEO
  • Master of Engineering
  • With Volvo since 1997
  • Jorma Halonen
  • 2,000 Series B shares and 25,000 employee stock
    options
  • Executive Vice President
  • Bachelor of Science in Economics
  • With Volvo since 2001

150
Company Overview
  • Establish 1927
  • Employees more than 80,000
  • Product Service

151
Company Overview
  • A global group
  • Conducts sales in about 185 countries
  • Has production facilities in 18 countries
  • Most of the Volvo Groups sales are to markets
    in Western Europe and North America
  • Brands

152
Production Facilities
153
Sales by Business Area
  • Volvo Trucks (67)
  • Volvo Buses(7.2)
  • Construction Equipment(15)
  • Volvo Penta (4.2)
  • Volvo Aero (3.3)

154
Sales by Business Area (Cont)
155
Sales by Market Area
156
Business Strategy
  • Customer oriented
  • Develop the dealer networks improve service to
    customers
  • Strong product portfolio
  • Invest in future technologies such as
    alternative drivelines and supplementary fuels
    offer various applications
  • Capitalize on economies of scale
  • Volvo Powertrain provides engines and other
    driveline components
  • Volvo Parts optimizes inventory management and
    distribution of parts
  • Volvo Logistics handles optimal logistics
    solutions for materials flow

157
Key Drivers
  • Cyclical industry
  • Intense competition
  • Unstable prices for commercial vehicles
  • Operations exposed to currency fluctuations
  • Profitability depends on successful new products
  • Relies on suppliers
  • Government regulation

158
Quarterly Income Statement3/2005 3/2006

(1 SEK0.1398 USD)
159
Key Operating Ratios
160
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161
Nine Month Ended Report
Sep 30 2006(1 SEK0.1398
USD)
162

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2005 Financial Highlights
  • Net sales increased by 14
  • Income for the year increased by 32
  • Earnings per share increased by 37
  • Proposed dividend SEK 16.75 per share

166
2005 Financial Highlights (Key Ratio)
167
Consolidated Income Statement
(1 SEK0.1398 USD)
168
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169
Sales Margin
170
Operating Income / RD Cost
171
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
(1 SEK0.1398 USD)
172
Cash Flow Statement 2005
173
Capital Expenditures
  • Current past
  • Future

174
Consolidated Balance Sheet
(1 SEK0.1398 USD)
175
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Change in Net Financial Position
177
Dividend Payout
178
Recent News
  • Strategic decision on closure of Volvo Aeros
    operations in Bromma
  • Volvo initiates a Traffic Accident Research
    Centre in China
  • Volvo Aero Norway to be supplier to the General
    Electric Engine for the Joint Strike Fighter
  • Volvo Trucks laying off 600 at Powertrain Plant
    in Hagerstown
  • Volvo Aero expands in US

179
Recent News (cont)
  • Volvo Construction Equipment invests in China
  • Plans bus body cooperation in India
  • AB Volvo increases its holding in Nissan Diesel

180
Hold !
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