El Archivo Historico de la Municipalidad de Hidalgo del Parral

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Http//www.hist.umn.edu/rmccaa
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Http//www.prb.org/prb
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PRB World Pop Sheet, 1997 (a quick lesson on
hope and truth)
19975840 24 9 1.5
476,8948,036 59 3.0
19925420 26 9 1.7
417,1148,545 68 3.3
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Demographic transitions in historical
perspective fertility, epidemiology, and
mortality

• The demographic transition paradigm
• Fertility transitions examples from Latin
  America
• Mortality transition and the AIDS epidemic in
  historical perspective

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Malthus, Marx, and Boserupvs. the Billions

• Demographic transition in the contemporary
  worldtheories, facts and trends(see handout)

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Three social philosophers Malthus, Marx and
Boserup

• Thomas R. Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of
  Population (1798) Population increases
  geometrically subsistence, arithmetically.
  Poverty is the result unless there is moral
  restraint.
• Karl Marx, Das Kapital (1867) Each mode of
  production has its corresponding mode of
  reproduction.

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Three social philosophers Malthus, Marx and
Boserup

• Esther Boserup, The Conditions of Agricultural
  Growth (1965), demographic pressure (population
  density) promotes innovation and higher
  productivity in use of land (irrigation, weeding,
  crop intensification, better seeds) and labor
  (tools, better techniques).

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Demographic transition phase shifts in
mortality and fertility
growth rate
Decline
A post-modern phase?--low death rates, lower
birth rates, negative growth rates.
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Population (in millions) by world regions, 1950
- 95

• Population Increase
• Region 1950 1995 1975 1995
• Africa 219 720 2.5 2.8
• Asia 3451 1.7
• Latin Amer 164 481 2.7 1.9
• U.S.A. 165 263 - 0.7
• Developed 832 1169 1.1 0.2

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Fertility transitions in 15 countries 1962-1995
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• I. Fertility TransitionIn Historical
  Perspective

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Three fertility transitions in Latin America,
compared with USA
fertilitytransitions
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Transitions, revolutions, baby booms, and busts
Cuba, Mexico USA
fertilitytransitions
baby booms
baby busts
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Politics, fertility and transition in Mexico,
1895-1995
Revolution
Family planning
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Cuban Revolution Baby boom (1960-1970) and bust
(1977-)
baby boom
baby bust
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Fertility decline in Latin America, 1952 - 1992
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Mexicos fertility transition 7 children in
1970 to 3.2 in 1992
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Age patterns of fertility USA, 1988 and 1970
vs. Mexico
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Mexicos fertility in 1971 lagged USA by a century
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By 1992, Mexico lagged USA by 2 - 3 decades.
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Fertility of married Mexican women by educational
levels compared with natural fertility
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The educational revolution will precipitate
further declines in Mexican fertility rates
None
Primary
Secondary
Post
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The fertility transition in China, Mexico, India,
Bangladesh, and Nigeria 1962-1995
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• II. EpidemicsA Historical Perspective

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The Age of Pestilence and Famine an example
from colonial Mexico
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Second example, 1630-1930 (northern Mexico)
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• III. Mortality TransitionIn Historical
  Perspective

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Mortality transitions Examples from Latin
America

• Earlier and faster in Argentina, Uruguay, Cuba,
  and Costa Rica
• Later and slower in Chile, Mexico, Brazil and
  Peru
• Slowest in Guatemala, much of Central America,
  and Haiti

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Life Expectancy, 1900-1980, 4 LA countries
(unequal in 1900 now converging)
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The Mortality transition in Mexicocatching up
with the USA
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Infant mortality declined from 13 in 1950 to 3
in 1992 (still more than 3 times the US rate).
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Does HIV/AIDS contradict the epidemiological
paradigm (see Bongaarts in PDR 3/96)?

• HIV/AIDS is a pandemic-- 20 million cases
  worldwide 2/3rds in Africa, 20 in S SE Asia.
  
• AIDS deaths rates will continue to rise,
  reaching, by 2005, 0.3-0.4 per thousand
  population world-wide.
• Behavioral change is the best hope rates of
  increase in infection are slowing everywhere
  except in Asia.

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Conclusions

• Minimal levels of economic and social development
  are sufficient to initiate the fertility
  transition.
• Modest investments in preventive public health
  could improve quality of life and longevity in
  many regions of the globe.
• The demographic explosion is nearly over
  everywhere, except in Africa.