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G. I. Science in 2015: Predictions and Visions

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Title: G. I. Science in 2015: Predictions and Visions


1
G. I. Science in 2015 Predictions and Visions
  • Shashi Shekhar
  • McKnight Distinguished University Professor
  • Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering
  • University of Minnesota

2
Source http//archive.salon.com/comics/tomo/2001/
07/09/tomo/index.html, www.gpsworld.com/gpsworld/a
rticle/articleDetail.jsp?id360842
3
Consumer Applications
  • Location-based Services
  • E.g. MapPoint, MapQuest, Yahoo/Google Maps,

Courtesy Microsoft Live Search
(http//maps.live.com)
4
Consumer Applications
  • Cell-phone, watch, custom
  • For in-vehicle or portable use

5
Application Domains
  • Spatial data mining is used in
  • NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Earth science
    data
  • National Inst. of Justice crime mapping
  • Census Bureau, Dept. of Commerce census data
  • Dept. of Transportation (DOT) traffic data
  • National Inst. of Health (NIH) cancer clusters
  • Commerce, e.g. Retail Analysis
  • Sample Global Questions from Earth Science
  • How is the global Earth system changing
  • What are the primary forcing of the Earth system
  • How does the Earth system respond to natural and
    human included changes
  • What are the consequences of changes in the Earth
    system for human civilization
  • How well can we predict future changes in the
    Earth system

6
Example of Application Domains
  • Sample Local Questions from Epidemiology
    TerraSeer
  • Whats overall pattern of colorectal cancer
  • Is there clustering of high colorectal cancer
    incidence anywhere in the study area
  • Where is colorectal cancer risk significantly
    elevated
  • Where are zones of rapid change in colorectal
    cancer incidence

Geographic distribution of male colorectal cancer
in Long Island, New York (Courtesy TerraSeer)
7
Planning and Simulation Applications
  • Evacuation Route Planning

8
Spatial Statistics Hotspots
  • The 1854 Asiatic Cholera in London

9
Academics GIS across Disciplines
10
Future of GIS Related Work
  • Steven Reader
  • Has not progressed beyond mapping, querying,
    spatial data inventory
  • Potential analytical power of technology to help
    solve complex societal and environmental problems
    has yet to be realized
  • Ron Briggs
  • future (e.g. traffic when I get there)
  • UAVs
  • K. Clark (Textbook on GIS)
  • Impact of computing trends,
  • Social issues geo-privacy,
  • Dobson (1983)
  • Automated geography

11
Future Prediction Vs. Vision
  • Predictions
  • 640K ought to be enough for anybody.
  • I think there is a world market for may be five
    computers.
  • Everything that can be invented has been
    invented.
  • People
  • Bill Gates, Chairman, Microsoft, 1981,
  • Thomas Watson, Chairman, IBM, 1943
  • Charles Duell, US Office of Patents, 1899.
  • Hard to predict future
  • despite tools like induction, deduction
  • Stochastic nature of natural and social processes
  • Why engage in futurology ?

12
Visions are important!
  • If you do not shape the future, someone else
    will!
  • Tim Phillips
  • many are short of really big ideas focus on
    immediately (day to quarter) issues, sometimes
    they forget that they got to be around in 10, 20,
    or 30 years.
  • SCOPE
  • The futurologists are not trying to make them
    happen, they are just considering the
    implications of them happening.
  • GIS Implicatons of Societal Needs
  • GIS Implications of Disrupting technologies and
    basic research

13
Societal Needs and Implications for GIS
  • Is G.I.Science relevant to Global Challenges ?
  • Next Decade Global Challenges World Fed. Of
    United Nations Asso.
  • Sustainable development for all
  • Clean water
  • Balance population and population growth
  • Policy making more sensitive to global long-term
    perspectives
  • Make information and communication technologies
    work for all
  • Reduce threat of new and reemerging diseases
  • Shared values and security strategies to reduce
    conflict, terrorism, WMD
  • Stop transnational organized crime networks
  • Meeting growing energy demands safely and
    efficienly
  • (6 more)
  • What are the implications for GIS ? Ex. Energy
  • Shortest path ? Fuel efficient routes, e.g.
    UPS/DHL reduce left tuens
  • Vehicle fuel efficiency vs. luxury
  • control increase A/C airflow on sunny side

14
NGA The Changing Challenge
Denial and Deception
Above Surface
Moving
Static
0 - 4 Hours
12 - 24 Hours
4 - 12 Hours
Traditional NTM Coverage
Below Surface
Uncharacterized
Characterized
Source Greg Smith - NGA
15
Technology Evolution and Implication for GIS
  • Time
  • Continuous time, e.g. vehicle tracks, events.
  • Slow update rate - Rarely real-time
  • Future Limited Predictive capabilities,
    Spatio-temporal statistics
  • Network
  • Statistics on Spatial Networks (e.g.road maps)

16
Geospatial Intelligence
Predictive View
Recorded View
Situational Awareness
(2)
(4)
Knowledge Discovery
Situational Awareness
Knowledge Discovery

(correlating signatures to predict events)

How many SAMS have moved more than 25 miles today?
What other events could occur with this pattern?
Problem Complexity
(1)
Data Base Maintenance
(3)
Predictive Analysis
GKB-F

M3
NES
(area limitation study - where could they be?)
MIDB
RMS
NGL
From known patterns, which movement does this
represent?
Captures observations and information needs
Time
Source Greg Smith - NGA
17
Computing Trends and GIS Implications
  • 2020 Information Technology M. Gough, CEO (NCC)
  • PC Terflop CPU, Terabyte memory, Peta-byte
    disks
  • Ubiquitous computing and sensing
  • Spatial Sensors location orientation posture
  • Web 2.0, social networking, virtual life
  • Q? What is the impact on G.I.Sc. ?
  • Point and ask in real world (w/ laser pointer ?)
  • Increase computing capacity
  • Scale up spatial models (e.g. spatial
    autoregression, agent based)
  • Wider use of LIDAR, Global-Hawk UAVs
  • Will web 2.0 change importance of location ?
  • Impact on clustering of brainpower and wealth

18
Technology Trends Beyond Computing
  • Future Shock Livewire, Summer 2007, AI
    Magazine,
  • Robotics
  • Mind-controlled interfaces
  • Personal networking
  • Smart Building
  • Smart Fabric
  • Nano
  • Bio-technology
  • Semantic Web
  • Q? What is the impact on G.I.Sc. ?
  • Bio-technology
  • Neurosurgery how to locate safe pathways to
    target in brain ?
  • Autonomous robots (.g. DARPA grand challenge)
  • Navigation on dessert terrain gt real-time GIS

19
Another Real-Time Application Homeland Defense
Base Map
Weather Data
Plume Dispersion
  • Preparation of response to a disaster
  • Plan evacuation routes and schedules
  • Help public officials to make important
    decisions
  • Guide affected population to safety

Demographics Information
Transportation Networks
( Images from www.fortune.com )
20
If you do not shape the future, someone else will!
  • What do we want G. I. Sc. to be in 2015 ?
  • What are barriers to achieving our 2015 vision?
  • What may we do to make 2015 vision more likely ?
  • Why coordinate GIS academic research and business
    needs?

21
What do we want G. I. Sc. To be in 2015 ?
  • Government An essential part of governance
  • Juliani effect post 9/11
  • Agencies like NGA, Roles like GIO
  • Spatial Budget processes
  • Ex. Gas tax ? Road user charges system
  • Predict Police budget for new developments
  • Business
  • Horizontal Many Fortune 500 leader considers
    GIS essential!
  • Marketing, Logistics, Facility location ?
    Strategy
  • Spatial pricing models for floor cleaning
    machines, ...
  • Academia, University
  • Discipline (department) vs.Interdisciplinary
    (center, institute) ?
  • Research Enterprise Science grand challenges

22
What are barriers to achieving our 2015 vision?
  • What would someone do to stall a 2015 vision?
  • Academic Discipline (department) or
    Interdisciplinary (center)
  • Is it a critical need for the university, state,
    nation and society?
  • Are there deep intellectual issues ? (Is it only
    pretty pictures?)
  • Is it a passing fad ?
  • Will the unit be financially self-sufficient ?
  • Tuition service courses, major
  • Research grants
  • Resource constraints space, faculty lines,
  • Government
  • Business

23
What may we do to make 2015 vision more likely?
  • Work together
  • On hard problems of societal importance
  • Communicate societal benefits to decision makers
  • Academia needs support of Business and Government
    to establish need for new disciplines,
    departments, centers, institutions
  • And vice versa
  • Goodchild, Haining and 12 others (IJGIS, 1992)
  • if GIS as science is to continue to garner
    academic recognition and funding, be able to
    demonstrate the important and usefulness of its
    research to GIS applications so that wider GIS
    industry becomes an advocate and financial
    partner.

24
Personal view on interesting research?
  • Personal view on interesting research
  • Problem, why is it important? Why is it
    challenging?
  • Solution / Approach, Is it novel? Is it better
    than state of the art?
  • Role of industry (beyond resources)
  • Source of problems of societal interest
  • May help assess state of the art in industry
  • Contribute new ideas to solution and approach
  • Expose entrenched academic assumptions

25
Complicated Hotspots
  • Complication Dimensions
  • Spatial Networks
  • Time
  • Challenges Trade-off b/w
  • Semantic richness and
  • Scalable algorithms

25
26
Example Basic Research Needs
  • Location Prediction and
  • Spatial interest measure e.g., avg, dist(actual,
    predicted)

Actual Sites
Prediction 2. Spatially more accurate than
Prediction 1
Pixels with actual sites
Prediction 1
27
Spatial Data Mining - Example
Nest locations
Distance to open water
Vegetation durability
Water depth
28
Implication of Auto-correlation
Computational Challenge Computing determinant
of a very large matrix in the Maximum
Likelihood Function
29
Example of Computational Process
  • Teleconnection
  • Find (land location, ocean location) pairs with
    correlated climate changes
  • Ex. El Nino affects climate at many land
    locations

Global Influence of El Nino during the Northern
Hemisphere Winter (D Dry, W Warm, R Rainfall)
Average Monthly Temperature (Courtsey NASA,
Prof. V. Kumar)
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