Coalitions and Social Cleavages

1
Coalitions and Social Cleavages

• Societies have different social divisions
  (cleavages)
• Class divisions (upper/middle/lower class)
• Regional divisions (North/South...provinces vs.
  Capital)
• Economic-sector divisions (industries vs.
  agriculture)
• Racial divisions (white vs. Black vs. Latinos,
  etc.)
• Every country has different social cleavages
• Chile United States
• Upper/middle/lower class Upper/middle/lower class
• Rural/Capital Rural/Capital
• NO South/North division South/North econ.
  division
• NO State divisions State divisions
• Mestizos/Natives White/Black/Hispanics/natives

2
The example of Argentina

• Argentina A rich country with high political and
  economic instability, why?
• Coalition politics --gt intra-elite conflicts
  explaining political and economic instability.
• Coalitions that exclude great sectors of society.
  Different cleavages
• Provinces vs. Capital (conflicts among elites)
• Landowners vs. Industrialists/workers (during the
  Peronist period)
• Landowners/Financial sector vs. Workers (during
  Menem)
• (NO significant racial division)
• (NO significant peasant groups)

3
The Example of Brazil

• Brazil mid-level country in terms of human
  development.
• The most unequal country in Latin America. High
  level of poverty, political and economic
  instability, why?
• Different cleavages in society explaining
• North vs. South States
• Landowners vs. Peasants
• Industrialists vs. Workers
• Rich vs. Poor
• White/mulato vs. black

4
BrazilGod is Brazilian (really?!)

• Today Overview 160 million
• mid-level of human development
• High industrialization in LA
• Nuclear capability
• Rich in natural resources
• Highest level of income inequality in LA
• High levels of poverty (close to 50)
• The best soccer players in the world
• Samba, jazz, musicians, and rhythm!

5
Brazil Brief Historical Overview

• Brazil colonized by Portugal
• 1600s-1822 Colony with high level of autonomy
  from Portugal
• Common path of economic development export raw
  material to Portugal. Examples Sugar, beans,
  coffee, rubber
• Important trade of slaves from Africa (mixed
  society)
• 1822-1889 Brazilian Empire (1870-1889 End of
  Slavery)
• 1889-1930 First Republic (Governors
  decentralization)

6
BrazilSocio-Economic cleavages

• 1600s-1930s Economy based on raw material exports
• 1800s- Sugar plantations in the North of Brazil
  (blacks)
• Early 1900s Rubber boom North and East
• 1900s Coffee (South of Brazil) (70 world
  market 1900/ 18 1978)
• Brazil depended on world economic up and downs
• 1940s- Industrialization in the South (Sao
  Paulo)
• Brazil two worlds
• North South
• Landlords sugar Landlords-coffee/industrialists
• middle class in cities middle class in cities
• Black/peasants peasants/industry workers

7
Brazil overviewPolitical development in the 20th
century

• Before 1930 Landlords controlling political
  development.
• State governors disputed power (South-coffee,
  North-Sugar)
• 1930-1945 Estado Novo (New State)
  Industrialization
• Getulio Vargas
• 1946-1964 New Republic
• Several unstable governments
• Military interventions (46/54/55/61/64)
• 1964-1985 Military regime (economic
  miracle/political repression)
• 1985- today Democratic time

8
The main conflicts

• Intra -elites conflicts (between the Sugar
  landowners and coffee landowners between
  landlords and industrialists)
• Among States. Governors control politics in each
  state. Central government has to deal with
  different states
• Peasants fighting for land
• Workers fighting for more rights
• Middle class looking for safety/better income
• Poor in cities (mostly blacks) fighting for
  food/housing

9
One solutionEstado Novo (Vargas 1930-1945)

• What are the main changes Vargas tried to
  introduce?
• Economically?
• Politically?
• Institutionally?
• How did he do it?
• Why did he fall in 1945?

10
Another solutionMilitary regime (1964-1985)

• Military high history of intervention in
  politics
• 1930/1937/1945/1954/1955/1961
• Bureaucratic-Authoritarian regime
• Coalition of military officers/Technocratic/admini
  stration
• highly anti-politics and anti-communists
• 1964? Reaction toward Goulart social policies
• Economic politics based on
• repression of labor unions
• Incentives to investment through big projects
• Impressive economic growth 1969-1978 (Brazilian
  Miracle)--Growth but increasing foreign debt.

11
Transition to DemocracyTransition to neo-liberal
model

• Politically Economically
• 1985-1990 Sarney no growth/Inflation
• 1990-1992 Collor de Mello (Empeachment) Neo-libera
  l reform
• 1992-1994 Franco Mixed
• 1994-1999 Cardoso Neoliberal reform
• 2000- Cardoso (reelection) Neoliberal
  reform
• Main issues in Brazilian Politics
• a) Political corruption/ police corruption/
• b) Landless movement. Cardoso promoted land
  reform
• c) Need to stabilize economy (fiscal deficit/no
  growth/no revenues)
• d) Conflicts between states and federal state
  spending

12
Poverty Some data on LA and Brazil

• Latin America
• Brazil
• 10 of population earn 1 a day
• (officially) 22 are below the poverty line
• (extra-officially) 40 are below poverty line
• 60 of population without access to basic drugs
• 10 of the population is undernourished

13
The Structural Adjustment in Brazil

• Inflation in Brazil 1990-2000

14
Structural Adjustment in Brazil Unemployment

• Unemployment in Brazil 1992-2000

15
Structural Adjustment in BrazilEconomic Growth

• GDP per capita

16
Structural Adjustment in BrazilFiscal
DeficitDifference between Total State Expenses
and Revenues
17
The main tensions today

• States pressure Federal state to increase state
  budgets
• IMF, elites pressure to reduce taxes
• Landless movement ask for land
• Middle class want to keep jobs in the state
• International organizations trying to protect the
  Amazons
• Poor people protesting for lack of food, and
  basic rights

• Federal State needs to reduce fiscal deficit--gt
  pressures over states
• Federal Sates needs revenues --gt pressures over
  mid/upper class
• Government give land in Amazons border
• IMF and government try to reduce state apparatus
• Corporations trying to influence the government
  to exploit natural resources
• Government controlling social unrest