CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN KERALA-AN OVERVIEW

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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN KERALA-AN OVERVIEW

• Dr.Roy KunjappyConvenor, FANSA-Kerala Chapter/
  Director CCHR
• Centre for Community Health Research (CCHR),
• Sadanathil bungalow, Vettikavala, Kottarakara ,
• Kollam ,Kerala India. Tel [phone] Mob
  09847282833 E-mailroycchr_at_sify.com
  http//www.cchrindia.org

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Kerala- Map
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Kerala Geography

• Location Kerala is a small strip of land lying
  at the south-west corner of India. It lies to the
  north of the equator between 8 18' and 12 48'
  north latitude and 74 52' and 77 24' east
  longitude.
• Extend Kerala extends over an area of 38,863
  sq.km which is only 1.03 percent of the total
  area of India. It has a total coastline of 580
  km. Its width varies greatly from west to east.
  It is about 120 kilometres at its maximum and
  just 30 kilometres at its minimum.

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Physiography

• Kerala is divided into three geographical
  regions-
• Highlands
• Midlands
• Lowlands

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Highlands

• The Highlands slope down from the Western Ghats
  (also known as the Sahyadri) which rise to an
  average height of 900m, with a number of peaks
  well over 1800 m in height. It is 18650 sq.km in
  area and accounts for 48 percent of the total
  land area of Kerala.
• This is the area of major plantations like tea,
  coffee, rubber and various spices. This area is
  often known as the Cardamom Hills. This region is
  one of the largest producers of many spices
  especially cardamom from which it earns its name
• Most of the rivers of Kerala originate from the
  Western Ghats.

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Midlands

• The Midlands, lying between the mountains and the
  lowlands, is made up of undulating hills and
  valleys. It is 16200 sq.km in area ie, about 40
  percent of the total land area.
• This is an area of intensive cultivation. Cashew,
  coconut, arecanut, tapioca, banana and vegetables
  of different varieties are grown in this area.

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Lowlands

• Lowlands are also known as the Coastal Area. It
  covers an area of almost 4000 sq.km. It is made
  up of numerous shallow lagoons known locally as
  kayels, river deltas, backwaters and shores of
  the Arabian sea and is essentially a land of
  coconuts and rice.
• This area is very fertile and most of the paddy
  cultivation is along this area. Kuttanad region
  of Kerala is one of the very few places in India
  where cultivation is done below sea level.

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Climate

• Although Kerala lies close to the equator, its
  proximity with the sea and the presence of the
  fort like Western Ghats, provides it with an
  equable climate which varies little from season
  to season.
• The temperature varies from 28 to 32 C.
  Southwest Monsoon and Retreating Monsoon (
  Northeast Monsoon ) are the main rainy seasons.

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Climatic seasons

• The temperature in Kerala normally ranges from
  28 to 32 C (82 to 90 F) on the plains but
  drops to about 20 C (68 F) in the highlands.
• Owing to its diversity in geographical features,
  the climatic condition in Kerala is diverse. It
  can be divided into 4 seasons - Winter, Summer,
  South-West Monsoon and North-East Monsoon.

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Climate in Kerala

• Kerala receives an average rainfall of 118 inches
  (3,000 millimeters) annually.
• The rainfall amount in the State decreases
  towards the south with decrease of height of
  Western Ghats. The southern most district of
  Thiruvananthapuram where Western Ghats are
  nearest to the sea coast and its average height
  is also least in the State receives minimum
  amount of rainfall.
• Kerala would have been a dry land because of the
  dry winds blowing from the north, but for the
  Western Ghats which prevent this wind from
  entering the land.

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Temperature rise

• Temperature data for seven IMD stations of kerala
  were collected from National Data Centre of IMD,
  Pune from 1956 to 2004.(49years)
• There was an increase in maximum temperature over
  Kerala by 0.64 C during the period of 49 years,
• Increase in minimum temperature was 0.23 C.
• Overall increase in annual average temperature
  was 0.44 C.
• It indicated a clear upward trend in surface air
  temperature of Kerala

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Temperature rise

• Between 1961 and 2003 ( India Meteorological
  Department ) the mean annual maximum temperature
  over Kerala has risen by 0.8 degree centigrade,
• The mean annual minimum temperature has risen
  by 0.2 degree Celsius and
• The average increase by 0.5 degree centigrade

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Temperature riseIndian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology,Pune)

• Place of study Kozhikode (North
  Kerala)Trivandrum(South Kerala)
• Period of study 19012007
• Annual max. temp. of North kerala increased by
  1.2.degree celsius per 100 years
• Annual max.temp. of South kerala increased by
  1.0.degree celsius per 100 years
• The increase in temp. was 0.4 degree celsius per
  decade during the past three and half decades

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INCCAReport 2010

• Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment
  Report-November 2010
• Climate Change and India A 4X4 Assessment -A
  sectoral and regional analysis for 2030s

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Temperature-(IMD)Indian Meteorological
Department,Pune
All-India annual mean, maximum and minimum
temperature variations during 1901-2007
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Increase in temperature projected

• Projections for the 2030s indicate an all-round
  warming over the Indian subcontinent associated
  with increasing GHG concentrations.
• The annual mean surface air temperature is
  projected to rise by 1.7C and 2.0C in 2030s

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Western coastal region

• In the western coastal region, mean annual
  temperatures are likely to increase from a
  minimum of 26.80.4oC to 27.50.4oC in the 2030s.
  
• The rise in temperature with respect to the 1970s
  will be between 1.7oC and 1.8oC

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Precipitation

• Kerala showed decreasing trend in monsoon
  rainfall for the period 1901-2007
• After 1999,rainfall was below long term average
  rainfall (except in 2006)
• Another study showed that Kerala experienced
  decline in annual monsoon rainfall during the
  recent past decades(1961 and 2003 )

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Projected increase in precipitation (INCCA
Report,2010)

• All the regions namely the Himalayan region, the
  Western Ghats, the Coastal Area and the
  North-East Region in India show a small increase
  in annual precipitation in the 2030s with respect
  to the baseline, that is 1970s.

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Coastal region

• Projections for the western coast indicate a
  variation in rainfall from 935185.33mm to
  1794247mm, which is an increase of 68 with
  respect to the1970s an increase that is ranging
  from 69 to 109 mm.
• Though June, July and August (monsoon)show an
  average increase of 8mm rainfall in 2030s with
  respect to 1970s,
• The winter rainfall is projected to decrease on
  an average by 19 mm during the period January and
  February in 2030s with reference to 1970s.
• The period March, April and May also show a
  decrease in rainfall with respect to1970s

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Shift in rainfall pattern

• Rainfall data for the IMD stations of the State
  of Kerala for the period from 1871 to 2008(140
  years) revealed a declining trend in annual and
  southwest monsoon rainfall during the past 60
  years
• and an increasing trend in post monsoon
  rainfall, indicating likely shifts in rainfall
  patterns.

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Trends in seasonal precipitation extremes-an
indicator of CC

• A study on seasonal precipitation pattern in
  Kerala during five decades(1954-2003) showed that
  the seasonal extremes in rainfall cause floods
  and water scarcity which are indicators of
  climate change (Indrani Pal and Abir Al
  Tabbaa,2008)

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Kerala state faces problems

• Kerala state was facing serious crisis in major
  areas of food security, agriculture, health and
  marine resources due to climate change.
• The agriculture sector in Kerala was badly
  affected due to continuous rain.
• Similarly continuous rain has affected
  maintenance and construction of roads
  (Achuthanandan,2010)

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Crop Damage Due to Untimely Rain in Kerala

• The untimely rain in Kerala, which hit the entire
  region since March 14, 2008 has caused crop
  damage and flooding.
• It is estimated that farmers could not harvest
  paddy worth about Rs. 128 crores  (1280 million
  rupees) due to unexpected flooding in the
  Kuttanad fields.extending to 2000 hectares which
  is quite unusual with the normal summer rain.
• Experts suggest that this untimely rain
• is a clear evidence of climate change.

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Thermo-sensitive crops

• The thermo-sensitive crops like black pepper,
  cardamom, tea, coffee and cocoa will be badly
  affected as temperature range (the difference
  between maximum and minimum temperatures) is
  likely to increase and rainfall is likely to
  decline

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Pepper output likely to fall in 2009

• Heavy pre-monsoon showers (and a lethal attack by
  wasps) may hit pepper production in Kerala, the
  main producer of the commodity in India.
• The industry estimates that production in fiscal
  2009 would be 40,000-45,000 tonnes compared with
  the 50,000 tonnes produced last year(2008).

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Production declines

• Increase in maximum temperature of 1-3 C
• during summer 2004 adversely affected
  thermo-sensitive crops like black pepper and
  cocoa in Kerala (Rao et al.,2008).

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Crops affected

• The prolonged wet spell in kharif 2007(summer
  crop) and unusual rains in 2008 devastated the
  paddy production to a large extent in kerala.
• Records show that almost all the plantation crops
  suffered to a great extent in 1983 and 2004 due
  to disastrous summer droughts

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Shift from foodgrain crops

• A clear shift was noticed from foodgrain crops
  (Paddy) to non-foodgrain crops in Kerala over a
  period of time(1952-2008).
• Increase in area under coconut, arecanut, banana,
  black pepper and rubber was noticed at the cost
  of phenomenal decline in rice area.
• One major reason was frequent floods in monsoon
  season and droughts during
• summer season, apart from various other reasons

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Cashew production declines

• Though Kerala stood first in cashew production a
  decade ago, at present it occupies only fourth
  position and likely to go down further.
• It was due to steady decline in cashew area and
  also occurrence of weather aberrations during the
  reproductive phase of cashew (Rao et al.,2008).

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Climate change hits mango production

• Nearly 2,500 farmers in Muthalamada grama
  panchayat in Palakkad district are engaged in
  mango farming on an acreage of 4,000 hectares.
  The annual production is 35,000 tonnes of high
  quality mangoes such as Alphonso, Malgova,
  Sindhooram, Kalapadi, Banganapilly, etc.

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• MANGO
• Climate change and unseasonal rain in November
  and January
• over the last two years(2009 and 2010) have
  dampened the
• prospects of mango farmers in Muthalamada, known
  for its
• early mango harvest and large-scale export of
  the fruit.
• Late flowering of the fruit and the resultant
  delay in harvest
• has hit the annual export market.
• Muthalamada mangoes fetch a high price in the
  international
• fruit market mainly on account of early
  availability,from January.

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Climate change is affecting the growth of fruits
in Kerala.

• Kanthalloor in Idukky district, the only winter
  fruit-growing centre of Kerala, bordering Tamil
  Nadu, is experiencing unprecedented weather
  changes.
• Apple, strawberry, orange, cherimoya, plum,
  guava, gooseberry, peach and passion fruit The
  fruit bowl of the hill station is rich and
  diverse.
• The variations in weather-the rain patterns have
  changed and there is unprecedented heat(
  temperature rise)
• The flowering season of apple and many other
  fruit trees has changed. Apple trees used to
  bloom in February, indicating the beginning of
  spring. Now it is advanced.
• All have badly impacted on the quantity of fruit
  production.

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CoastalCoconut

• As per INCCA report(2010), yields of
  coconut are projected to increase in the west
  coast of India (includes kerala) by up to 30 due
  to temperature increase.
• Increase in coconut yield IN THE WEST COAST may
  be mainly attributed to projected increase in
  rainfall (10) and relatively less increase in
  temperatures, apart from CO2 fertilization
  benefits

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Effect on small pelagic fishes

• The oil sardine Sardinella longiceps and the
  Indian mackerel Rastrelliger kanagurta are
  tropical coastal and small pelagic fish, forming
  massive fisheries (21 of marine fish catch of
  India).

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Distribution in Malabar coast

• The oil sardines, were known for their restricted
  distribution in Malabar coast (kerala)14degreeN
  along the southwest coast of India where the
  annual average sea surface temperature ranges
  from 27 to 29oC.

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Distribution to North
Until 1985, almost the entire catch of oil
sardine was from the Malabar coast. In the last
two decades, however, the catches from north
beyond kerala are consistently increasing,
contributing about 15 to the all-India oil
sardine catch in the year 2006 (Vivekanandan et
al., 2009). The surface waters of the Indian
seas are warming by 0.04oC per decade, and the
warmer waters (27-28.5oC) is expanding to
latitudes north of 14oN, enabling the oil sardine
to extend their distributional range to northern
latitudes (Maharashtra and Gujarat)
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Distribution to southeast

• Another notable feature is the extension of oil
  sardine distribution to the east coast of India
  as well.
• Until the mid-1980s, the oil sardine did not form
  fisheries along the southeast coast. In the
  1990s, oil sardine emerged as a major fishery
  along the southeast coast

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Warming is beneficial

• It is also found that the catches from the
  Malabar upwelling zone have not decreased,
  indicating distributional extension and not a
  distributional shift.
• These observations indicate that the abundance of
  oil sardine has increased over the decades, ie.
  the current warming is beneficial to herbivorous
  small pelagics

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Indian mackerel

• Compared to the oil sardine, the Indian mackerel
  Rastrelliger kanagurta had wider distribution
  along the Indian coast, but the catches and
  abundance were predominantly along the southwest
  coast.
• Statistics showed that the mackerel catch in the
  south east coast increased from10.6 of all India
  mackerel catch(1961-76) to 23.2(1997-06)
• It is indicative of extension of mackerel to
  northern boundaries

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Mackerels opt north and vertical extension

• Fish catch statistics show that the Indian
  mackerel, in addition to extension of northern
  boundaries, are found to descend to deeper waters
  in the last two decades
• The mackerels are expanding the boundary of
  distribution to depths as they are able to
  advantageously make use of increasing temperature
  in the sub-surface waters. It is a vertical
  extension of distribution, and not a
  distributional shift.

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Global sea level rise

• Globally, sea level is expected to continue to
  rise over the next several decades. During 2000
  to 2020 the rate of thermal expansion is
  projected to be 1.3 0.7mm/year
• In the absence of the availability of regional
  projections, for the 2030s, global projections
  can be used as a first approximation of sea-level
  rise along the Indian coasts in the next few
  decades.

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Sea-level rise

• Global sea-level change results mainly from two
  processes, mostly related to recent climate
  change, that alter the volume of water in the
  global ocean through
• a) thermal expansion and
• b) the exchange of water between oceans and other
  reservoirs (glaciers and ice caps, ice sheets,
  other land water reservoirs, including through
  anthropogenic change in land hydrology and the
  atmosphere).

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Sea level rise by 1.3 mm\year

• Observations based on tide gauge measurements
  along the Indian coast, for a period of 20 years
  and more for which significantly consistent data
  is available indicate that
• the sea level along the Indian coast has been
  rising at the rate of about1.3mm/year on an
  average.

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Sea level rise in Kochi (Kerala)

• The mean sea level rise trends in Kochi (kerala),
  based on 54 years of available data, is 1.75mm
  per year

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Inundation of coastal areas

• Estimation of inundation of coastal areas due to
  sea level rise was made for one location (Kochi)
  along the west coast of India.
• The estimate shows that the inundation area will
  be about 169 km2 of the coastal region
  surrounding Kochi for a 1.0 m rise in sea level
• .Since Kochi region covers the backwaters, a lot
  of inland areas far from the coast, but adjacent
  to the tidal creeks, backwaters and lakes will be
  inundated. This causes considerable increase in
  the total area of inundation

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Projected coastal inundationdue to sea- level
rise
Coastal inundation (red in colour) map of Kochi
region for a 1.0 m sea-level rise
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Salinity intrusion

• The potential impacts of global climate change in
  coastal Kerala are salinity intrusion into
  aquifers and rise in salinity of wetlands
  (Thrivikramaji,2008)
• Studies indicate that fall in rainfall and sea
  level rise, along with other factors have
  resulted in salinity intrusion affecting ground
  water resources in the coastal districts of the
  state.

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Salinity in coastal aquifers

• It has also been observed that over exploitation
  of ground water in certain stretches of kerala
  coast has contributed to the entry of salinity
  into the coastal aquifers from the sea.
• Though this tendency is mainly observed during
  the summer months, when recharge is partially
  zero, there is a possibility for aggravation of
  the problem due to increase in withdrawal rate to
  cater to the requirements of dense coastal
  population.
• Further aggravation is possible due to low
  rainfall, sea level rise and other climate change
  impacts

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Sunstroke\Heat stroke (?)Reported

• Sunstroke\Heat stroke has been reported from
  places like Palakkad in kerala in March2010 and
  during previous years
• In the first week of March2010, temperatures
  across all districts in Kerala have risen to an
  unprecedented high. (Palakkad it
  reached41degree celsius )
• Due to the heat, 10 people from the northern
  districts of Palakkad, Kannur and Thrissur
  suffered severe burn injuries and were
  hospitalised for emergency first aid care.

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Sunstroke\Heat stroke

• Sunstroke is a form of hyperthermia, an
  abnormally elevated body temperature with
  accompanying physical and neurological symptoms,
  resulting from exposure to high temperature
• Sunburn
• It is literally a burn on your skin. It is a burn
  from UV radiation. The consequence of this burn
  is inflammation of the skin-reddening of skin
  with some blisters. Skin damage and loss may take
  place.

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Malaria

• Malaria is a climate-sensitive disease and its
  transmission dynamics are greatly affected by
  climatic conditions.
• The development of the parasite takes place in a
  mosquito .Being a cold-blooded creature, the
  mosquito is sensitive to climatic conditions such
  as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and
  wind velocity. There is evidence of increasing
  malaria prevalence throughout India

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Malaria in kerala

• Malaria, which made a comeback in Kerala in
  Thrissur district. In a district, so far 82 cases
  of Malaria have been reported this year (July
  2010,The Hindu).Last year, 154 instances of
  Malaria attack were reported.
• Of the 82 cases this year, 77 cases were due to
  plasmodium vivax infection one due to plasmodium
  falciparum and four due to mixed infections.
• It is reported that Malaria cases identified in
  the district were among migrant labourers, mainly
  from north Indian States of Orissa, Bihar and
  West Bengal.

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Chikungunya

• Chikungunya in Kerala is due to climate
  change(WHO)
• Chikungunya is a viral disease that spreads
  through the bite of infected mosquitoes. It is
  characterised by severe, sometimes persistent
  joint pain, as well as fever and rash.

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CC effect on chikungunya

• There was chikungunya outbreak in Kerala during
  2006 and 2007. In these two years, over 100
  people died, while more than 100,000 were
  affected.
• Aedes aegypti
• 
  Chikungunya virus

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Window period extends

• Due to change in climate, it becomes conducive
  for mosquitoes to spread to new areas and affect
  people.
• The window period (the interval that elapses
  between infection or inoculation with a pathogen
  and the onset of symptoms or of detectability of
  infection by laboratory testing) of disease
  transmission through mosquitoes would increase
  due to climate change. (WHO,2008)

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CONCLUSION

• Kerala has started witnessing the climate change
  and its impacts on various geographic regions and
  economic sectors. These are quite crucial.
• In order to meet these challenges, suitable
  mitigation and adaptation measures are to be
  undertaken

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