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February 2010

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United States Confectionery Market February 2010 2010 USA Economic Trends 2010 USA Retail Trends The 2009 U.S. Confectionery Market % $ Change Retail ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: February 2010


1
United States Confectionery Market
  • February 2010

2
U.S. Confectionery Market Overview
3
  • 2010 USA Economic Trends
  • Recession ending??? GDP grew 6 in 4th Quarter
    2009
  • Stock market DJ 10,500 and growing
  • Retail sales surprise in 3rd and 4th quarter 2009
  • Interest rates remain low
  • Consumer spending ????
  • Issues to watch!
  • Unemployment still at 10
  • Housing market still down
  • Oil prices rising again
  • Still difficult to borrow
  • Commodity prices head even higher
  • Savings rate up spending down

4
  • 2010 USA Retail Trends
  • Uptick in third and fourth quarter sales
  • Shopping trips declined
  • Big spending shift to value channels
  • Increased coupon usage
  • Confectionery seen as a recession resistant
    category
  • Organic sales decline
  • Whats going to happen with Holiday retail sales?
  • 2009 3.6 growth (SpendingPulse projection)
  • 2008 - declined 2.3
  • 2007 - 2.4 growth

5
Cocoa Prices at Historic Highs
Cocoa price per ton
2003
2005
2004
2007
2006
2008
2009
6
Sugar Prices near Historic Highs
Refined beet sugar f.o.b. Midwest
U.S. Cents per pound
2003
2005
2004
2007
2006
2008
2009
7
Corn Sweetener Prices near Historic Highs
Corn Sweetener Prices have stabilized but are
high by historical standards.
U.S. per pound
2003
2005
2004
2007
2006
2008
2009
8
Commodities Pricing
Milk significantly lower in 2009 Peanuts
lower than 2008 but increasing Walnuts prices
jumped at end of 2009 Pistachios Iranian crop
shortages drive prices higher Almonds
9
The 2009 U.S. Confectionery Market
The U.S. Retail Confectionery Category generates
approximately 29 billion in retail sales
  • Change
  • Retail Sales (NCA projection) 29.3 3.6
  • Manufacturers Shipments (NCA projection) 18.7 3
    .4
  • Domestic Manufacturer Shipments 17.9 3.4
  • Imports 2.0 0.9
  • Exports 1.2 -1.3

The retail profit margin is approximately 35 for
the confectionery category.
Estimated sales in billions NCA Shipment Data and
Global Trade Atlas Import/Export Data
10
Chocolate Candy represents approximately 58 of
total confectionery dollar sales.
2009 Confectionery Categories Analysis
  • This analysis shows figures for 2009 shipments
    and retail sales.

NCA estimates based on Source 2008 US
Department of Commerce, Census Bureau 311D,
Confectionery Report and NCA Manufacturer
Shipment Reports, IRI Data
11
Confectionery Sales Steady
  • Due to price increases in the confectionery
    industry in 2009 the industry saw an increase in
    dollar sales combined with a decrease in tonnage.

2009- US Dept of Commerce 311 D Report and NCA
Manufacturers Shipments
12
2008 Per Capita Retail Sales
  • The average U.S. Consumer spent 93 on
    confectionery products in 2008

2008 US Department of Commerce 311D Confectionery
Report
13
U.S. Confectionery The Retail Market
14
Candy and Gum Ranked 4thAmong Food Categories-
December 2009
IRI Food, Drug Mass Excluding Wal-Mart
12/27/2009
Candy and Gum Ranked 4th among 2009 Food
Categories in Food, Drug and Mass Outlets
15
Candy and Gum is the 2nd Largest Snack Category
IRI Food, Drug Mass Excluding Wal-Mart
12/27/2009
16
2009 Retail Channel Performance
Based on 52 Week Sales Ending December 27, 2009
Channel 2009 Sales 2009 Growth Supermarkets
4.9 5.7 Wal-Mart 4.0 3.4 Mass X
Wal-Mart 1.4 2.2 Convenience
Stores 4.6 3.0 Drug Stores 2.8 3.0 Wareh
ouse Clubs 2.5 4.7 Dollar Stores 1.2 6.1
Vending 1.1 -1.9 Bulk 1.2 2.1
The confectionery retail market grew across all
trade channels but supermarkets, dollar stores,
and warehouse clubs outpaced the overall retail
market in 2009.
  • Source NCA estimates based on input from
    Information Resources, Inc. NCA/CMA Monthly
    Shipment Reports and U.S. Department of Commerce.
  • Sales Figures in billions

Indicates NCA estimate
17
Confectionery Seasonal Merchandising
18
  • What Affects Seasonal Sales?
  • Date/Day of Holiday
  • The Economy
  • Consumer Confidence
  • Merchandising Strength/Visibility

19
Confectionery Seasonal Sales ( in millions of
dollars)
  • 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 projections
  • Valentines Day - 971 1,036 1,024 928 935
  • Easter - 1,884 1,987 1,846 1,990 1,970
  • Halloween - 2,146 2,202 2,209 2,207 2,225
  • Christmas - 1,389 1,420 1,376 1,401 1,420
  • projections for 2010

Seasonal confectionery sales grew 1.2 in 2009
Results and Projection as of February
2010 Source Sales figures are compiled by
National Confectioners Association based on
input from Information Resources, Inc. NCA/CMA
Monthly Shipment Reports and U.S. Department of
Commerce
20
Seasonal Confectionery Trends
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005
VALENTINES 0.7 -9.4 -0.2 6.7 0.1
-4.0 EASTER -1.0 7.9 -7.1
5.4 7.0 -7.6 HALLOWEEN
0.8 Even 0.1 2.6 2.8 2.3
CHRISTMAS 1.4 1.8 -3.1 2.2 1.0
2.4 IRI FDM
NCA projects a 0.4 increase in 2010 for total
seasonal sales.
21
Holiday Dates/Days
Holiday 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 Valentines Sat. Sunday Monday
Tuesday Thursday Easter 4/12
4/4 4/24 4/8 3/31 Halloween Sat.
Sunday Monday Wed. Thursday Christmas F
riday Sat. Sunday Tuesday
Wed Thanksgiving 11/26 11/25
11/24 11/22 11/28 Shopping Days
29 30 31 33 27
Indicates negative date for holiday sales
Indicates positive date for holiday sales
Indicates neutral date for holiday sales
22
U.S. Confectionery Trends
23
Trends - for 2009/2010
  • Core mass brands grew in units and dollars
  • Consumers moved to value channels and value
    brands
  • Seasonal sales rebound with improving economy
  • Dark chocolate sales continue to grow but at a
    slower pace
  • Dark chocolate sales increased 9 in 2009
  • Everyday gourmet chocolate flat in 2009
  • Consumers want gourmet product at a value price
  • Emerging trends in 2010
  • More private label chocolates
  • Upscale private label/gourmet packaging
  • Mass brands introducing more dark chocolate items
  • Exotic chocolate flavorings citrus, spice, salt,
    fruits
  • High cocoa content chocolates
  • Gourmet packaging for chocolates

24
Trends - for 2009/2010
  • Value products grew significantly
  • Nut/Coconut Candy grew 12.1
  • Gummies and chewy candy grew 11.6
  • Licorice grew 4.7
  • Theater Box candies grew 6
  • King sized candies up significantly
  • Sugar Free gum - 7.3 sales
  • Exotic fusion flavors
  • Fortified products
  • Seasonal candy increased in in 2009
  • Reflection of difficult economy
  • More favorable dates in 2009
  • Seasonal confectionery will grow 2.0
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