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Title: Chapter 10 Demographics & School Finance Improving student

Chapter 10 Demographics School Finance
  • Improving student learning and ensuring that
    all children receive an adequate education in the
    21st century will be complicated by changing
    demographics of the students to be educated, as
    well as of the adults who must pay for education
    through taxes. - Janet S.
    Hansen, 2001.

Demographics Finance
  • Demographics describe changes in population.

Demographics Finance, cont.
  • Demographics significantly impact the costs of
    providing public education.

Changes in Our Understanding of Demographics
  • For the most part, we were not concerned with
    changing racial ethnic demographics.
  • Until 15 or 20 years ago, demographics only
    involved the number of students enrolling each
    fall and if they were coming from different
    neighborhoods than last year.

Todays Schools Have More More Diverse Students
  • These increasing racial, ethnic, and economic
    groups have a large impact on where and how
    education dollars should be spent
  • Equity and adequacy issues face schools with
    changing demographics

Demographic Changes Affect Teaching Learning
  • Without proper planning and budgeting, students
    issues of language, values, traditions,
    behaviors will likely prevent otherwise effective
    teachers from understanding, developing strong
    relationships with, successfully teaching
    students from backgrounds different than their

Demographics Impact Student Achievement
  • School leaders must be aware of the trends in
    demographics if schools are to teach all students
    to high levels of learning.

This Chapter Will
  • Analyze state and local demographic shifts in
    student population and examine the associated
    financial impact on public schools
  • Make some predictions as to what the future
    demographics will look like in your locality
  • Examine some demographic issues involved in
    teacher recruitment, selection, professional
    education to meet the students needs in schools

Understanding Diverse Students Learning Needs
  • When the school districts population changes,
    families from other cultures or economic
    backgrounds move into the neighborhood and enroll
    their children in school
  • Middle class teachers beliefs and behaviors
    typically do not prepare them to understand,
    motivate, or instruct students from other

U.S. Schools Operate on Middle Class Norms
  • For example, many believe that wealthy people
    are smarter
  • Teachers believing this myth will not have
    sufficiently high expectations for students from
    poverty backgrounds and will be less likely to
    teach these students to high achievement levels

Students Bring Own Rules
  • Students from poverty backgrounds bring their own
    hidden rules into the school that make
    classroom management and a learning focus
    difficult for teachers who do not understand
    these behaviors

Students Bring Own Rules, cont.
  • Students from poverty homes are likely to believe
    that security comes from relationships rather
    than school or work
  • They are used to higher noise levels receiving
    key information nonverbally

Teacher Student Classroom LearningComfort
Levels Differ
  • Students
  • Relationships matter most
  • Noise is good
  • Non-verbal tells REAL story
  • Other students are entertaining
  • Teachers
  • Desks in
  • straight rows
  • Teachers lecturing
  • Only one speaker at a time
  • Teachers giving information

Teacher Student Disconnects Achievement
  • The results for student achievement are likely to
    be discouragingly self-fulfilling
  • Poor student achievement among students in the
    new demographic would greatly increase community
    school distrust and would eventually require
    significant educator time and resources to

Teacher Attitudes Student Achievement
  • Unless teachers recognize their personal biases
    ignorance about students from different
    backgrounds --and appropriately adjust their
    views and instructional practices -- students
    families will perceive teacher attitudes as
    disrespectful or worse
  • Results for student achievement are likely to be
    discouragingly self-fulfilling

Student Achievement Community Trust
  • Poor student achievement among students in the
    new demographic would greatly increase community
    school distrust and would eventually require
    significant educator time and resources to

Suburban School District A
  • 10 Years Ago
  • Students
  • 98 White, affluent
  • 5 Free or Reduced Price Lunches
  • Teachers
  • Mirrored students
  • Local Economy
  • Began outsourcing
  • Today
  • Students
  • 47 White 27 Hispanic
  • 23 Black
  • 93 Free/Reduced Lunches
  • 30 Second Language Learners
  • Teachers
  • Still mostly White, middle class
  • Local Economy Loss of well-paying jobs loss of
    fiscal resources

What is Financial Impact of Educating These
  • 10 Years Ago
  • Students
  • 98 White, affluent
  • 5 Free or Reduced Price Lunches
  • Teachers
  • Mirrored students
  • Local Economy
  • Began outsourcing
  • Today
  • Students
  • 47 White 27 Hispanic
  • 23 Black
  • 93 Free/Reduced Lunches
  • 30 Second Language Learners
  • Teachers
  • Still mostly White, middle class
  • Local Economy Loss of well-paying jobs loss of
    fiscal resources

Planning for Schooling 10 Years Later Requires
  • Revised curriculum
  • Professional development for staff
  • Equipment facility needs
  • Recruited a more diverse staff
  • Programs practices to decrease the achievement
    gap if the schools are to remain responsive to
    their communitys needs

Demographics Impact School Finance
  • School leaders must be aware of local demographic
    trends if schools are to teach all students to
    high levels in a public accountability
  • Keeping pace with changing demographics requires
    funding at higher levels than before

Poverty School Leadership
  • Educational leaders in high poverty areas must
    plan to meet these challenges with highly
    qualified teachers and meaningful programs that
    address the real at-risk behaviors facing
    students, while building community support for
    the direction being taken

Percentage Change in Public K-12 Enrollment
by State,Fall, 1996 Fall, 2001
States Localities Must Plan for Increases,
Decreases, Cultural/Ethnic Differences in
Student Populations Their Costs
Enrollment Trends, 1980-2010, in Thousands
Expected Changes in Student Populations
  • The racial/ethnic backgrounds of the school-aged
    population have changed
  • While white, non-Hispanic persons will still be
    the majority, this demographic is projected to
    decrease as a part of the overall population by
    30age points

Expected Changes in Student Populations
  • The Black non-Hispanic population is predicted to
    maintain consistently around 14 of the
  • The Hispanic group has increased and is projected
    to almost double between 2000 and 2040 to 28 of
    the population
  • The Asian/Pacific Islander/Other group continues
    to rise by 1age point per
  • decade

Special Needs Students in New Demographics
  • Medically fragile students
  • Second language learners
  • Students from other countries bring still more
    learning (and occasionally physical) needs into
    the classroom

Demographics Can Help Us Plan for Potential Costs
  • The Statistical Abstract of the United States,
    2001, indicating 2000 data, can help us predict
    what the kindergarten class of 2005 might be
  • For example, it is known that poverty increases
    risk of low birth weight, low birth weight is a
    good predictor of a child having learning
    disabilities in schoolwith increased enrollment
    of poverty students, we can expect increased
    special education services and related costs

Racial/Ethnic Background of School-Age Population
15 Risk Factors Young Childrens Success in
  • Poverty
  • Infant child mortality
  • Low birth weight
  • Single parents
  • Teen mothers
  • Mothers using alcohol, tobacco, or drugs
  • Transience
  • Child abuse neglect
  • Lack of quality day care
  • Low wage jobs
  • Unemployed parents
  • Lack of access to health and medical care
  • Low parent education
  • Poor nutrition
  • Lack of contact with English as the primary

Poverty is a Risk Factor
  • Poverty impacts enlarges all other risk factors
  • Fully 22 of Americas children live in poverty
  • America has the highest percentage of children in
    poverty of any of the 28 advanced industrial
    democratic countries
  • The U.S. also has the largest gap between rich
    and poor children
  • Poorest children experience difficulty in general
    and specifically in school

Poverty Statistics
  • 1/3 of Black Hispanic children live in poverty
  • Only 10 of White children are raised in poverty
  • 14 million school-aged children in poverty in
  • 9 million were White children
  • 4 million were Black children
  • 4 million were Hispanic children (included above)

Predicting School Population from Local Poverty
  • The poorest families (those with income less than
    10,000 per year) have yearly birth rates of 73
    per 1,000 females
  • Families with incomes greater than 75,000 per
    year have yearly birth rates of 50 per 1,000
  • If poverty rates are increasing in a school
    district or a state, it may be safe to predict
    greater enrollment growth than where income is

Fiscal Planning Needed with Increased Local
  • Localities with increasing rates of children
    qualifying for free and reduced lunch programs
    need to plan for early intervention programs
    dealing with resultant school issues from a
    prevention perspective instead of a reactionary

Fiscal Planning Needed with Increased Local
Poverty, cont.
  • If poverty rates are increasing in a school
    district or a state, it may be safe to predict
    greater enrollment growth than where income is
  • It is a wise fiscal investment to adequately meet
    poor childrens educational needs as education
    appears to be the only intervention that breaks
    the poverty cycle

School Finance Planning to Teach Children of
  • Preschool programs
  • Expanded Head Start programs
  • Parent education programs
  • Quality day care programs
  • Professional development programs for educators
    to better meet students learning needs
  • Early intervention programs address school issues
    from a prevention perspective, include

Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs
  • America has the highest known migration level of
    any first world country
  • 43 million Americans move each year
  • 14 stay within the same county, 4 within the
    same state, but to a different county, and 4 to
    a different state

Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs,
  • Low-income children move more frequently than
    their higher income counterparts
  • They lose continuity of instruction learning
    along with having to adjust to a new home,
    friends, teachers

Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs,
  • Losing continuity of instruction, learning,
    relationships often reduces students
  • Frequent moves contribute to the Achievement Gap

Transience Varies State to State
  • Approximately 80 of those who live in
    Pennsylvania were born there
  • Florida, on the other hand, has a relatively high
    transience rate only 30 of the residents were
    born in the state

Transience Varies State to State
  • Teachers in Pennsylvania and Florida may start
    and end the year with 25 students
  • The Florida teacher, however, unlike the
    Pennsylvania teacher, may have 20 different
    students from the 25 who started the year

Transience is a Risk Factor
  • Educational leaders need to plan programs that
    ease the educational disadvantages of transience
    for students provide professional development
    for those who deal with these students

Transience Increases Risk for School Problems
  • Increases family stress and conflict
  • Increases feelings of alienation, loss
  • Linked to psychiatric disorders behavior
    problems for preschool children
  • Increase probability of needing special education
    in schools
  • Areas with transience issues, include
  • Military bases locales
  • High poverty areas
  • Agricultural areas with migrant workers
  • Should be aware of the related emotional
    problems implement programs for these children

Illegal Immigrants School Finance
  • It is estimated that the U.S. has approximately 5
    million illegal immigrants
  • Almost sixty five percent of these individuals
    live in one of three states California
    (2,000,000), Texas (700,000), and New York
  • Estimate that one in five illegal immigrants is
    school-aged, means more than 1 million such
    children attending U.S. schools

Illegal Immigrants School Finance, cont.
  • In the early to mid-1970s Texas was
  • spending millions of state dollars each
  • year educating children of illegal immigrants
  • The legislators thought that since these students
    were in the country illegally, Texas should not
    have to spend its tax dollars educating them
  • In May 1975, the Texas legislature revised its
    laws to withhold state education funds to those
    school districts for children who were not
    legally admitted into the United States

Illegal Immigrants School Finance, cont.
  • The United States Supreme Court
  • in Plyler v. Doe, 1982, determined
  • that undocumented children of alien parents
    could not be denied a public education
  • The court reasoned that the Fourteenth Amendment
    provides that No State shalldeprive any person
    of life, liberty, or property, without due
    process of law nor deny to any person within its
    jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws

Illegal Immigrants School Finance, cont.
  • The financial impact on Texas was enormous
  • There may have been 50,000 children of illegal
    immigrants in the Texas public schools
  • The state share per pupil in 1975 may have been
    2,000 with the total yearly spending over

Second Language Learners School Finance
of Hispanic School-Aged Children
  • The fastest growing racial/ethnic group in the US
    is Hispanic
  • The lack of contact with English as the primary
    language is a risk factor in school

Second Language Learners School Finance, cont.
  • In 2005, if 15 of new students enrolling in U.S.
    public schools is Hispanic, 4,791,200 children
    fall into this category
  • If 10 of these children are ESOL (needing
    English language instruction) and we use the
    Florida model of pupil weighting at 1.298, the
    yearly additional cost to educate these children
    is 10,742,598,662

According to the U.S. Census Bureau
  • For infants born to black mothers, the of low
    birth weight babies is 13 almost double that
    of the average
  • We may predict, therefore, that black children
    may be at greater risk of being identified for
    special education services than other children

According to the U.S. Census Bureau , cont.
  • If your state or locality is experiencing higher
    enrollment of black students, one might expect a
    larger enrollment in special education students

Infant Child Mortality Rates School Finance
  • The United States has a rather surprisingly high
    rate of infant mortality
  • In the United States in 1998, there were 681
    deaths per 100,000 babies under the age of one
  • The infant mortality rate for white babies in the
    first year of life is 571 per 100,000 babies
    while the rate for black babies is 1,363 per

Infant Child Mortality Rates School Finance,
  • Infant mortality can lead to childrens
    parents feelings of alienation
  • This condition has been linked to psychiatric
    disorders behavior problems for preschool
  • These children have a high probability of needing
    special education programs later as they enter
    public schools especially in LD and DD
    (developmental delay) programs

Rate of Single Parenthood School Finance
  • In the United States, about 1/3 of all births
    were to unmarried parents
  • This is a risk factor is associated with poverty
  • Of births to unwed mothers, 26 were white, 68
    were black, 42 were Hispanic, 58 Native
    American, and 5 Asian
  • For every ethnic/racial group a child raised by a
    single mother is 2 to 3 times as likely to be
    raised in poverty than a child raised in a
    two-parent home

Too Much TV-Watching School Finance
  • Research findings indicate that for each
    additional hour of watching TV per day,
    attention problems increase by approximately 10
  • Toddlers who watched 8 hours of TV per day would
    have an 80 increased risk of attention problems
    than a child who watched no TV

Too Much TV-Watching School Finance, cont.
  • ADHD is a qualifying condition for special
    education services
  • The implications for increased learning problems
    and related practices to address them
    increases the cost of educating these students

Too Much TV-Watching School Finance, cont.
  • School districts with increasing percentages of
    children eligible to receive free or reduced
    lunch need to understand other ramifications of
    this changing demographic
  • Students in the poorest 20 of families watched
    TV 18 hours per week rather than the 11 hours per
    week in the top income group
  • Lack of quality day care may be a significant
    contributor to time in front of TV

Grandparents Raising their Grandchildren
  • 4 million school-aged children live with their
  • Grandparent/s have sole custody of approximately
    1 million school-aged children
  • Factors include
  • Parents in jail or drug rehabilitation centers
  • Parents who for one reason or another are simply
    incapable of caring for their own children

Grandparents Raising Grandchildren School
  • Little is known about the levels of support for
    school funding issues or the voting records for
    these grandparents
  • In school districts where this phenomenon occurs,
    school leaders need to provide support mechanisms
    for these individuals and provide the
    professional development for staff members who
    interact with them

Child Abuse Neglect School Finance
  • In 2002, an estimated 2.6 million referrals were
    made to local or state Child Protective Services
    (CPS) for investigation
  • Involved nearly 4.5 million children
  • Approximately 896,000 children found to be
    victims of child abuse or neglect

Increased Cost of Educating Emotionally Disturbed
  • Using the Florida model, the cost for educating a
    child diagnosed as socially maladjusted costs 2.3
    times the base cost per student
  • If only 1/10 of the 418,600 children referred are
    eventually diagnosed with emotional problems
    the 41,860 students at 2.3 times the average
    pupil expenditure in 2002 of 7,524
  • Yearly cost to society through school costs alone
    would be 724,395,672

Teacher Shortage School Finance
  • The U.S. Department of Education estimates that
    schools will have to replace more than 2 million
    teachers over the next ten years, an average of
    200,000 new teachers, annually
  • Teacher shortages are most pervasive in math,
    science, special education, bilingual and ESL

Cumulative of Teachers Leaving Profession Each
Many Reasons for Teacher Shortages
  • Approximately half of all beginning teachers
    leave the profession within their first five
  • Almost 16 percent of beginning teachers leave
    before the end of their first school year
  • Leavers cite
  • Job dissatisfaction
  • Desire for career outside education
  • Working conditions
  • Low salary considering amount of own education
    job responsibilities

High Teacher Turnover Impacts School Finance
  • Replacing 200,000 experienced teachers with
    100,000 experienced 100,000 inexperienced
    (lower salaried) teachers could save 1 billion
    each year that could be redirected to improving
    teacher quality
  • Teachers with many years of experience and
    advanced degrees will be replaced with new,
    inexperienced teachers

High Teacher Turnover Costs Taxpayers
  • Business models cost out employee turnover costs
    to include 25 of the employees salary and
  • Organizational costs of termination, recruitment,
    hiring substitutes, and new training costs,
    estimates are that turnover costs U.S. public
    education approximately 2.1 billion each year

Finance Redirection to Increase Teacher Quality
  • More than 2 billion each year could be
    redirected to teacher salary and benefits
    enhancements to attract retain high quality
  • If the 1 billion annual savings were combined
    with a 50 reduction of the 2.1 billion
    organizational costs

High Teacher Turnover Impacts School Finance
  • In education, induction, mentoring, and training
    costs are concentrated in the early years of
  • Estimates say that a teacher who quits after one
    year cost the school district 13,500 in lost
    recruitment and training
  • The cost jumps to 50,000 for a teacher who quits
    after three years

Alternatively Certified Teachers Have High
  • 80,000 teachers entered the teaching profession
    in the last 10 years through non-traditional,
    teacher prep programs
  • One study found that 60 of those
  • who enter teaching through short-cut
  • programs leave teaching in the first 3
  • years as opposed to the 30 who leave in
  • the same time frame from traditional
  • programs and the 10 to 15 who leave from
  • five-year teacher preparation programs

Induction Programs for Teachers Reduce Later Costs
  • Since faculty stability has been shown to enhance
    school improvement attrition rates for new
    teachers participating
  • in induction programs is 15
  • (compared to 26 for those
  • who had no induction support), it
  • makes financial common sense for the
    educational leader to research quality induction
    programs to minimize personnel costs

Low Salary Hurts Teaching as Career
  • The National Center for Education Statistics
    (NCES) reported
  • 28 of former public school teachers
  • 33 of private school teachers
  • left the classroom and went to work for
    private businesses because of better salary or

Quality Teachers Can Increase Student Achievement
  • ETS study examined math and science scores on the
    National Assessment of Educational Progress
    (NAEP), also known as the Nations Report Card
  • When teachers had strong content knowledge, had
    learned to work with students from other
    cultures, and learned to work with special needs
    students, their students tested more than a full
    grade level above their peers

Teacher Shortage Hurts Urban, Low Income Schools
  • Much research indicates that low income and urban
    schools experience higher degrees of teacher
    turnover and greater teacher shortages than other
    types of schools
  • As a result, urban and low-income students are
    more likely to have under-prepared and
    non-certified teachers than any other group of

Teacher Quality Increases Student Achievement
  • Over time, students placed with high quality
    teachers make significantly higher achievement
  • Grade 3 students scoring at approximately the
    same level, after 3 consecutive years with highly
    effective teachers, score 35 ile points higher
    in reading scores and 49ile points higher in
    math scores than do peers with less effective
  • Students with less effective teachers may even
    lose ground, in terms of achievement scores

Teacher Quality Could Reduce the Achievement
Gap, but
  • Low income and minority students are nearly twice
    as likely to assigned to low quality teachers
    than their more affluent, white counterparts
  • Other research indicates that poor black students
    are less likely to have a well-qualified teacher
    than poor white students, especially at the
    secondary level

Administrator Demographics Quality Principal
  • There is a growing shortage of qualified people
    willing to take on the principals job
  • The graying of school administrators linked
    with the increased job complexity, rising
    standards, greater accountability demands have
    led to increased numbers of school leadership
    vacancies nationwide
  • Approximately 40 of the countrys
  • current principals will retire by 2008

Administrator Demographics Principal Shortage
  • In a 2001 Public Agenda survey, superintendents
    in large, urban districts are somewhat more
    likely to experience an insufficient supply of
    principal applicants 61 say they are
    experiencing at least a somewhat serious shortage
    of principals.

Administrator Demographics Principal Shortage,
  • The National Association of Elementary School
    Principals (NAESP) estimates that approximately
    40 of the countrys 93,200 current principals
    will retire by 2008
  • The recruitment and retention of
  • qualified principals has become
  • one of the greatest challenges facing
  • school systems across the U.S

Principal Recruitment Retention Are Costly
  • Approximately 22 of all current principals could
    be eligible to retire
  • Blacks and Hispanics appear to be under-
    represented in the principal population
  • Attracting and retaining quality principals can
    be an expensive proposition for school districts
    with competition for high quality,
    underrepresented racial/ethnic groups

Average Principals Salaries Racial/Ethnic Groups
Issues Contributing to Principal Shortage
  • The varied and enormous demands on school
    leaders time and energies force many to make
    serious compromises in their personal and family
  • Issues of community respect, prestige, and salary
    also make the careers less attractive to
    promising quality candidates.
  • In some cases, principals earn less per diem than
    senior teachers

Principal Quality is Also a Major Concern
  • Many superintendents acknowledge difficulties in
    finding effective, well-qualified principal
  • Just over half (52) say they are happy with
    the job their current principals are doing,
  • Only 41 of large urban district superintendents
    say they are happy with their current
    principals performance

Principal Quality Lacking
  • Barely one in three superintendents say they
    are happy with their districts principals when
    it comes to
  • Recruiting talented teachers (36)
  • Knowing how to make tough decisions (35)
  • Delegating responsibility and authority (34)
  • Involving teachers in decisions (33)
  • Using money effectively (32)

Principal Quality Student Achievement
  • Owings and Kaplans (2004) study finds that
    elementary principals rated highly by supervisors
    using professional standards have significantly
    higher achieving students than principals rated
  • Middle and high school principals ratings were
    in the expected direction although not
    statistically significant

Principal Quality School Finance
  • Knowing how to use precious (and limited)
    school resources effectively to maximize student
    learning and develop and maintain a quality
    teaching staff, quality principals makes a
    measurable difference in the value taxpayers get
    for supporting schools.

Ideas to Improve Principal Quality, Reduce
  • Improving school administrators pay and prestige
  • Improving the quality of principals professional
  • Making it much easier for principals to remove
    ineffective teachers
  • Creating initiatives that encourage teachers to
    consider school leadership careers

Principal Turnover Impacts School Finance
  • The average salary for school administrators in
    the 1999-2000 school year (latest data available)
    was 66,504
  • Approximately 22 of all principals could be
    eligible to retire. Less experienced/expensive
    principals would probably replace them
  • If 10 of the nations 93,200 principals retire
    each year at a savings of 15,000 per year per
    principal, the national savings would be almost
    140 million
  • This personnel cost savings, as with teachers,
    could be redirected to administrator salary and
    benefits enhancements to attract and retain high
    quality principals in the schools

School Finance Issues Principals Daily Needs
  • Budgets have not kept pace with new spending
  • Most superintendents (66) and principals (53)
    say insufficient funding is a more pressing
    problem for them than lack of parental
    involvement, ineffective administrators, or poor
    teacher quality
  • Not only have responsibilities increased but also
    more mandates have been assigned to school
    leaders without the corresponding funds to enact