Ensemble Data

1
THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

• PROBABILISTIC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGH IMPACT
  EVENTS (THORPEX)
• Goal Provide highest quality, coordinated, and
  seamless probabilistic automated guidance
  products, including information on forecast
  uncertainty
• Deliverable Comprehensive suite of ensemble
  forecast systems (forecast engine) that
  facilitate the generation of automated forecast
  guidance as a basis for high impact event
  forecasting for NOAA operations regarding high
  impact events
• Range of use All high impact weather, water, and
  climate forecast applications

2
THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

• Time/spatial scales All spatial and time scales,
  including
• Now-casting (6-12 hrs, local scale modeling)
• Short range (up to 3 days, regional modeling)
• Medium- and extended range (up to 15 days, global
  modeling)
• Sub-seasonal (10-60 days, coupled global ocean /
  land surface / atmosphere modeling)
• Seasonal (2-12 months, coupled global OLA
  modeling)
• New aspects of forecast process
• Integrated from observations to user applications
• Focused on high impact events
• Probabilistic to capture forecast uncertainty
• Seamless guidance from minutes to seasons
• Adaptive to provide best case dependent info
• User controllable to cater to users needs

3
THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

• Activities (with funding sources)
• Design of observing system for high impact events
• Development of observing instruments/platforms
  capable of filling gaps in current system (STI)
• Optimal design of satellite in-situ observing
  network (EMP)
• Adaptive collection and processing of
  observations (EMP)
• Ensemble-based data assimilation techniques
• Ensemble-based forecast error covariance (EMP)
• Initial ensemble perturbations (EMP)
• Numerical modeling for high impact events
• Ensemble techniques for high impact applications,
  e.g., air quality / dispersion, tropical
  cyclones, extra-tropical storms and other events,
  fire weather (EMP)
• Model-related uncertainties in ensemble
  forecasting (EMP)
• Variable-resolution modeling for high impact
  events (EMP)
• Socio-economic applications
• Statistical bias correction of lead time
  dependent systematic errors (EMP)
• Downscaling to fine resolution information (EMP)
• Combination of all forecast information (EMP)
• Product generation (EMP / STI)
• User applications - Decision Support Systems (STI)

4
THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

• Performance measures
• Possible new probabilistic guidance products for
  high impact events
• Hydrometeorology
• Extreme hydro-meteorological events, incl. dry
  and wet spells (CONUS)
• Quantitative extreme river flow forecasting
  (Outside the US)
• Tropical / winter storm prediction
• Extreme surface wind speed
• Precipitation type extreme amounts (related to
  wet spells)
• Storm surge wave height
• Severe weather
• Fire weather index
• Combined severe weather index
• Aviation forecasting
• Flight restriction
• Icing, visibility, fog, clear air convective
  turbulence
• Health / public safety and economic impact
• Hot and cold spells
• Air quality
• Legacy internal probabilistic scores to assess
  long-term progress

5
THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

• Coordination with other programs
• NWS Forecast Uncertainty Service Evolution
• NFUSE Steering Team Provides Coordination within
  NWS and the Weather, Water, and Climate
  Enterprise a process for assessing,
  communicating, and using forecast uncertainty
  information
• NFUSE Team receives Comprehensive plans on
  automated generation of probabilistic guidance
  for high impact events, to be coordinated with
  human factor (LFW) and outreach (conveying and
  using uncertainty information) components of
  NFUSE process
• WW LFW Provides Requirements and primary
  application area for probabilistic numerical
  guidance products
• LFW Receives High quality probabilistic
  numerical guidance for high impact weather
  forecast applications on all spatial/time scales.
  
• LFW considers distribution within NWS,
  manipulation (adding value), display, depository,
  verification of ensemble forecast data, and
  training of forecasters
• WW STI Observing Programs
• STI Observing programs provide Development of
  adaptively configurable new observing instruments
  and platforms
• STI Observing Programs Receive NWP guidance on
  optimal configuration of observing network
• WW STI Socioeconomic Applications Activities
• STI Socioeconomic applications provide Advice on
  forecast products, development of decision
  support tools, outreach to external users
• STI Receives Probabilistic/ensemble numerical
  guidance for HMT and other demo projects

6
THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

• Coordination with other programs - 2
• WW - Hydrology
• Hydrology Provides Major area of quantitative
  high impact applications in water management /
  drought prediction
• Hydrology Receives Bias corrected and downscaled
  precipitation and other relevant probabilistic /
  ensemble forecasts to be used as forcing in
  hydrological modeling and drought forecast
  applications
• WW Air Quality (AQ)
• AQ Provides Important application in area
  affecting public health and safety
• Air Quality Receives High quality probabilistic
  / ensemble forecast information to be coupled
  with AQ modeling system for Homeland Security and
  other dispersion plume applications
• Climate Goal Predictions and Projections
  Program
• Climate Goal Predictions/Projections Provides
  Important application area for ensemble and
  probabilistic forecast concepts, coupling of
  atmospheric model with ocean and land surface
  components, and re-forecasting research
  (identified as a gap for THORPEX)
• Predictions and Projections Program receives
  Ensemble and probabilistic methods suitable for
  sub-seasonal and seasonal operational
  forecasting, contributing to seamless
  weather-climate forecasting capabilities
• Climate Goal - Climate Observations and Analysis
  (COA) Program
• COA Provides Archive and distributed web
  services access to ensemble forecasts through the
  NOAA National Operational Model Archive and
  Distribution System (NOMADS)
• COA Receives Archive of seamless suite of
  weather / water/ climate forecasts

7
THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

• Coordination with other programs - 3
• Commerce Transportation Goal Aviation Program
  
• Aviation Program Provides Application area
  critical to transportation
• Aviation Program Receives Probabilistic /
  ensemble numerical guidance for aviation-related
  parameters
• Commerce Transportation Goal Marine Program
• Marine Program Provides Application area
  critical to transportation
• Marine Program Receives Probabilistic / ensemble
  numerical guidance for marine transportation-relat
  ed parameters
• Building Community Resilience in the Face of
  Coastal Hazards Coastal Resilience
• Coastal resilience Provides Critical application
  area for probabilistic forecast activities
• Coastal Resilience Receives Early numerical
  warning for high impact events