The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020

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The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020
3rd AD-HOC FISH PRICE INDEX WORKSHOP

• by Stefania VannucciniFishery Statistician
  (Commodities)FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture
  Statistics and Information Service

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Outlook models

• Key role of outlook models
• Importance to have a good understanding on
  perspectives of developments in the food and
  agriculture sector
• Need to develop a model to analyze the outlook of
  the fisheries and aquaculture sector

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Importance of fisheriessector

• In terms of food security
• The significant growth of aquaculture production
• The expansion of the coverage of food products
  and of the oil and feed markets
• The links and interactions with the agriculture
  sector

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Interaction fisheries-agriculture

• Integrating farming
• Ecosystems, markets, products, prices,
  innovation, technology
• Competition on water and land resources
• Feed
• Fish meal, fish oil
• Raw material from agriculture and livestock

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Aglink-CO.SI.MO.

• OECD FAO Aglink-CO.SI.MO. modelling system
• Partial equilibrium model for international
  agriculture and food markets
• Medium term projections
• Perform alternative scenarios
• OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook publication

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AGLINK Model

• OECD
• Dynamic, partial equilibrium supply-demand model
• Yearly basis since early 1990s
• Medium-term projections
• Agricultural key commodities
• Assumptions
• Coverage
• Close collaboration with member countries
• Influence of agricultural policy

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CO.SI.MO. Model

• FAO World Food Model
• FAO COmmodity SImulation MOdel
• Yearly basis since 2004
• Updating Cycle
• Coverage
• Commodities
• Macro economic assumptions
• Parameters

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

• Country views are the starting point
• AGLINK CO.SI.MO is used to get a consistent and
  coherent picture
• Model outcomes adjusted through expert opinions
• Final reviews in OECD commodity working groups
• The datasets are available at
  www.agri-outlook.org

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Fish model

• Construction of a satellite model on fish and
  fishery products
• After a few years of use as a stand alone
  component, possible merging to the AGLINK-COSIMO
  model
• Benefit also for the model as will expand the
  coverage of food consumption and in particular of
  protein as well as of the oil and feed markets

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Fish model

• Two supply functions (capture and aquaculture)
• Capture either exogenous, endogenous but only
  affected by el Niño and endogenous but responding
  to price (13)
• Aquaculture, 99 endogenous and responding to
  price of output and feed
• Fish meal and oil are composed by two components
  from whole fish and from fish residue

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Fish model

• Demand is split to three end uses, food,
  fishmeal/fish oil and other uses (kept exogenous)
• Demand for fish meal and oil responds to the need
  of aquaculture, the own price and the price of
  the respecive oilseed products
• Imports and exports of fish are either exogenous
  or a function of domestic and world prices
  adjusted for tariffs and transport costs

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Fish model assumptions

• El nino will affect South American capture in
  2010, 2015 and 2020.
• Fishing quota under-fill will be minimal.
• Aquaculture productivity gains will be smaller
  than in the previous decade.
• New feeding technics will not prevent increase in
  the ratio of fish to oilseed meal price.
• Japan fish and seafood production affected by
  tsunami in 2011 and gradually returning after.

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OECD-FAOAgricultural outlook 2011-2020
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Agricultural outlook 2011-2020

• Agricultural commodity prices in real terms
  higher compared to 2001-2010.
• Production costs are rising and productivity
  growth is slowing (1.7 compared to 2.6)
• Energy related costs and feed cost will continue
  to increase
• Resource pressures on water and land are
  increasing
• Need of further investments into productivity
  enhancements
• Per capita food consumption will expand most
  rapidly in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin
  America, with highest increases for vegetable
  oils, sugar, meat and dairy products
• Trade is expected to grow by 2 per year, slower
  than the previous decade

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Outlook GDP GROWTH
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Growth of per capita consumption 2011-20 vs
2008-2010
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TOTAL FISHERY PRODUCTION
million tonnes
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Projections for capture fisheries
million tonnes
El nino
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Capture fisheries
Indicates excluding USA, China and EU27
respectively
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Projections for aquaculture production
1 000 tonnes
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Growth rate of fish production by decades
Source FAO
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Aquaculture production
Total 54.6 mt
Total72.4 mt
Indicates excluding USA, China and EU27
respectively
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Fish meal production
million tonnes
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Chile and Peru, fish meal
million tonnes
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World utilization and consumption projections
kg/capita
Utilization in million tonnes
Source FAO
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Increasing role of aquaculture in human
consumption
Source FAO
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Surpass in 2015
million tonnes
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World per capita fish consumption
kg per capita
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General growth of fish consumption
Source FAO
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Trend in world trade of fish and fishery products
million tonnes live weight
Trend
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2020 trade of fish food by countries in quantity
Exports
Imports
Source FAO
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Share of 7 major exporters to increase
Total 43.4 mt
Total 34.8 mt
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Share of major importing countries to remain
rather stable (about 68)
Total 34.1 mt
Total 43.46 mt
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Fish price projected to increase as prices of
other commodities
Traded products
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Growing prices
Source FAO
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Outlook fish vs meat prices
Source FAO-OECD
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Growing prices
Source FAO
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Conclusion

• Projections indicate a continuous rise in demand
  for fish and fishery products, with growing trade
  and consumption
• Need to long-term resource conservation and
  effective management of resources as well as of
  aquaculture
• Differentiation of consumption, opening of new
  markets
• Risk of increase of costs of production due to
  stable production of fishmeal/fish oil
• Too high prices in the market will risk the
  effect of substitution with other emerging
  commodities

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Outlook for fish supply

• Major increases will depend on aquaculture.
• Factors to influence future growth of
  aquaculture
• costs/availability of feed for selected species
  access and availability of areas/water
• environmental impacts
• availability of technology and finance
• effects on biodiversity
• climate changes
• governance
• food safety and traceability issues
• Capture importance of implement more cautious
  and effective fisheries management

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Outlook for fish demand

• Population/rural/urban
• Income
• Retail concentration in developed and developing
  which will affect demand
• Product development, technological innovation
• Continuous increase of trade
• Increased imports from developing countries
• Outsourcing of processing will continue
• Slow growth in per capita consumption

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Improvements of the model

• obtaining better transport cost data
• obtaining more representative tariffs for the
  aggregated components
• obtaining or estimating FH food demand
  elasticities
• obtaining or estimating FHA supply elasticities
• identifying a better way to estimate value of
  capture fisheries

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Next steps

• Present the fish model to the OECD Committee of
  Fisheries
• Ameliorate the fish model. Possible inclusion of
  the Fish Price Index in the Fish model
• Establish a better collaboration with OECD
  Fisheries
• Prepare a new run of the fish model and insert a
  new fish chapter in the OECD-FAO Agricultural
  Outlook 2012-2021
• Final goal inclusion of the Fish Model in the
  Aglink-CO.SI.MO. overall model

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Links FH model and AGLINK-CO.SI.MO

• Three major links exist
• introduction of the FH consumer price in the food
  demand functions of AGLINK/COSIMO
• the feed demand system
• the interaction between the FM and FL markets
  with their oilseed counterparts

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Other integrations

• The Fishery and Aquaculture Department of FAO is
  also investigating for the possible integration
  of a fisheries and aquaculture component in some
  of the already existing models as well as to look
  for other potential models of FAO and other
  institutions/organizations

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Fish to

• Fish to 2030 report, updating of Fish to 2020
  (Delgado, et al. 2003)
• IMPACT model of the IFPRI
• Database prepared
• Modeling in development phase

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FAO Global Perspective Studies for food and
agriculture

• Review
• Long-term projections (30-40 years)of consumption
  and production of agricultural products and food,
  and of trends in world food security
• Recommandations by consultant to include fishery
  component in the studies

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UK FORESIGHT

• Project run by the UK Government for Science
• The project looks out to 2050 and take a global
  view of the food system, considering issues of
  demand, production and supply as well as broader
  environmental issues

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THANK YOU!!!