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Global Climate Change Scenario

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SAARC Training Program on Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in South Asia Global Climate Change Scenario Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Global Climate Change Scenario


1
Global Climate Change Scenario
SAARC Training Program on Climate Change
Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in South
Asia
Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam
Associate Professor, IWFM Coordinator , Climate
Change Study Cell
Bangladesh University of Engineering and
Technology
2
Outline
  • Introduction to Climatic System
  • Green House Effect and Global Warming
  • Status of Global Climate Change
  • Climate Change Predictions
  • Climate Change Scenarios
  • Climate Change Scenarios for Bangladesh
  • Overview of the Impact of Climate Change

3
Climate Systems
  • The complicated system consisting of various
    components, including the dynamics and
    composition of the atmosphere, the ocean, the ice
    and snow cover, the land surface and its
    features, the many mutual interactions between
    them, and the large variety of physical, chemical
    and biological processes taking place in and
    among these components.
  • Climate refers to the state of the climate
    system as a whole, including a statistical
    description of its variations.
  • Atmosphere
  • 78 nitrogen, 21 oxygen, and 1 other gases.
  • Carbon dioxide accounts for just 0.03 - 0.04.
  • Water vapor 0 to 2

4
Components of Climate System
5
Green house gases
  • CO2 and some other minor gases
  • Absorb some of the thermal radiation leaving the
    surface of the earth.
  • Emit radiation from much higher and colder levels
    out to space.
  • These radiatively active gases are known as
    greenhouse gases.
  • They act as a partial blanket for the thermal
    radiation from the surface which enables it to be
    substantially warmer than it would otherwise be,
    analogous to the effect of a greenhouse.

6
Green house effect
7
Human induced climate variation
  • Perturbations of the atmospheric composition
    the enhanced greenhouse effect
  • Effect of aerosols
  • direct effect (scattering of incoming solar
    radiation)
  • indirect effect (affecting the radiative
    properties of clouds)
  • Land-use change (agriculture, deforestation,
    reforestation, afforestation, urbanisation,
    traffic, )

8
Sector wise Green house gas emission
9
Increasing trends of CO2
10
Human induced changes of green house gases
11
Global temperature and Greenhouse gases
12
Temperature variation past 1,000 years
13
Increase of Temperature past 140 year
14
Surface Air temperature (1960-1990)
15
Ice melting
  • Images gathered from the Defense Meteorological
    Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic
    sea ice concentration 1979 (left) and 2003
    (right).

1979
2003
16
Cracks in Ice bars
17
Trends of Sea Surface temperature
18
Sea Level Rise (1980-2000)
  • 20 cm rise of Global Sea Level in last century.
  • Prediction of another 80 cm rise by 2100.

19
Trends of Precipitations
20
Climate Models to predict climate change
  • Climate models are computer-based simulations
    that use mathematical formulas to re-create the
    chemical and physical processes that drive
    Earths climate. 
  • To run a model, scientists divide the planet
    into a 3-dimensional grid, apply the basic
    equations, and evaluate the results.
  • Atmospheric models calculate winds, heat
    transfer, radiation, relative humidity, and
    surface hydrology within each grid and evaluate
    interactions with neighboring points.
  • Climate models use quantitative methods to
    simulate the interactions of the atmosphere,
    oceans, land surface, and ice.

21
(No Transcript)
22
GCM typical horizontal resolution of between 250
and 600 km, 10 to 20 vertical layers in the
atmosphere and sometimes as many as 30 layers in
the oceans.
23
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
  • The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
    was a report prepared by the Intergovernmental
    Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Third
    Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001, on future
    emission scenarios to be used for driving global
    circulation models to develop climate change
    scenarios.
  • It was used to replace the IS92 scenarios used
    for the IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995.
    The SRES Scenarios were also used for the Fourth
    Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007.

24
SERS Emission Scenarios
  • A1 - a future world of very rapid economic
    growth, global population that peaks in
    mid-century and declines thereafter, and the
    rapid introduction of new and more efficient
    technologies. Three sub groups fossil intensive
    (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a
    balance across all sources (A1B).
  • A2 - A very heterogeneous world. The underlying
    theme is that of strengthening regional cultural
    identities, with an emphasis on family values and
    local traditions, high population growth, and
    less concern for rapid economic development.
  • B1 - a convergent world with the same global
    population, that peaks in mid-century and
    declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline.
  • B2 - a world in which the emphasis is on local
    solutions to economic, social and environmental
    sustainability.

25
Impact of the Changes of Green house gases
  • Summary of changes in the global environment by
    the 2050s and 2080s for the four scenarios
    expressed as changes from the 1961-90 average.
    The current (1999) CO2 concentration is about
    370ppmv. The effects of aerosols on climate are
    not considered. (ppmv parts per million by
    volume)

26
Temperature increase versus SRES
27
Predicted changes of Temperature
28
Projected changes in annual temperatures for the
2050s
BW 11
  • The projected change in annual temperatures for
    the 2050s compared with the present day, when the
    climate model is driven with an increase in
    greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about
    1 increase per year in CO2

29
Sea Level Rise
30
Climatic Condition of Bangladesh
  • Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has
    increased with a rate of 1.03 0C per 100 years

31
Change of mean temperature (0C/year)
32
Predicting Rainfall
Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario
33
Predicting Maximum Temperature
Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario
34
Predicting Minimum Temperature
Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario
35
Predictions over Bangladesh
http//teacher.buet.ac.bd/akmsaifulislam/climate/i
ndex.htm
36
Overview of the Impacts of climate change
  • Human Health impacts
  • Ecosystem Impacts
  • Agriculture Impacts
  • Water Resources Impacts
  • Market Impacts

37
Human Health impacts
  • Expansion of the areas of potential transmission
    of malaria and dengue fever (medium-to-high
    confidence) roughly 300 million more people at
    risk of malaria
  • Increased heat-related deaths and illness,
    affecting particularly the elderly, sick, and
    those without access to air conditioning
  • Increased risks to human life, risk of infectious
    disease epidemics and many other health risks
    where floods, droughts or storms increase in
    frequency and/or intensity
  • Decreased winter deaths in some temperate regions

38
Ecosystem Impacts
  • Coral death from exposure to 3-4 ºC higher
    seasonal maximum sea-surface temperatures for 6
    months or more
  • Substantial reduction in glacier and ice-cap
    volume tropical glaciers particularly vulnerable
    to elimination
  • Loss of unique vegetation systems and their
    endemic species (e.g. vegetation of Cape region
    of South Africa and some cloud forests)
  • Extensive reduction in Arctic summer sea-ice
    extent with benefits for shipping but adverse
    effects on sea-ice dependent animals (e.g. polar
    bears, seals, walrus)
  • Coastal wetland loss from sea level rise (up to
    10 globally for 20 cm rise, higher percentages
    in some areas)
  • Increased disturbances of ecosystems by fire and
    insect pests
  • Increase net primary productivity of many mid-
    and high-latitude forests
  • Extinction of some critically-endangered and
    endangered species

39
Agriculture Impacts
  • General decrease in cereal crop yields in
    mid-latitudes
  • Decreased crop yields in areas of increased
    drought
  • Food prices increase relative to projections that
    exclude climate change
  • Decreased cereal crop yields in most tropical and
    subtropical regions
  • Increased heat stress in livestock and crop
    damage from heat waves
  • Decreased frost damage for some crops

40
Water Resources Impacts
  • Decreased water quantity and quality in some
    areas of increased drought
  • Increased flood damage due to more intense
    precipitation events
  • Decreased water supply in many water stressed
    countries (half-billion people in central Asia,
    southern Africa, and countries surrounding the
    Mediterranean affected)
  • Increased water supply in some other water
    stressed countries (e.g. parts of Asia)

41
Market Impacts
  • Net market sector losses most regions and for
    global aggregate
  • Increased insurance prices and reduced insurance
    availability in response to increased frequency
    and intensity of some extreme climate events
  • Decreased energy demand for heating buildings in
    winter and increased energy demand for cooling
    buildings in summer
  • Net market sector losses in many developing
    countries

42
Emission of CO2 -gtwho is responsible?
  • Per capita emissions of CO2 is less than 0.2 ton
    annually in Bangladesh, compared to 1.6 tons in
    the developing countries

43
Thank you
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