Polarization:

1
Polarization a 50/50 Nation?

• - U.S. opinion from 1972-2002
• sorting of partisanship
• weak vs. strong identifiers
• ABORTION views polarized?
• the GENDER GAP myths
• GAY MARRIAGE polarized?

2
Opinion polarization, 1972-2002 ? on 35
different issue measures, isthe public farther
apart than before? Age, educ, race, gender,
ideology NO! Slightly more polarized public
on abortion The two parties are farther
apart, but this is caused by REPs DEMs
correctly choosing the right party more often
than in past years! ? PARTISAN SORTING

3
Why better partisan sorting? FEWER Liberal
Republicans, except in the Northeast US!
Conservative Democrats are rare, except in
South...rise in INDEP voters!! (1) The movement
of old SOUTHERN DEMS into the Republican and
Independent column (2) YOUTH new to political
system who pick a partisan affiliation are
choosing more correctly!

4
MEASURING party identification Strong D D Lean
IND Lean R Strong R
7 category
scale To clarify earlier findings (i.e. better
sorting ) ACTIVISTS / STRONG PARTISANS are
sorting much better, but not necessarily the
case for WEAK IDENTIFIERS the party leaners!

5
ABORTION views in U.S. 3 traumatic
circumstances support 70-85 rape, health
endangered, serious birth defects 3 elective
circumstances support only 40 poor, doesnt
want to marry father, just no more
kids QUESTION are we as far apart as we
think??? last ten years, American opinion moved
in PRO-LIFE direction due to partial birth
issue?
6
Are different groups polarized on ABORTION? 6
circumstances South vs. Pacific Coast 3.5
vs. 4 Religions difference greater
among leaders than among followers High
vs. Never church attendance the BIGGEST gap
2.5 vs. 4.5 Party surpisingly, REPUBs were
more pro-choice party before 1980 (now DEMs
are) gap between parties has grown slightly
since 1990
7
Gender gap and abortion myth Gender gap
(def.) Are Women more pro-choice than Men?
NO! is this a surprise to you? Gender gap
real causes (1) use of force / war (2)
govt aid for poverty ? Gender gap is mainly
White Men moving REP! ? Marriage vs. singleness
is a better predictor of views on abortion /
other culture war issues
8
Gay Marriage views in the U.S. Gay marriage /
civil union / traditional marriage Despite
media frenzy (and interest group rage) over this
issue, it rates as 14 out of 14 issues
prioritized by Americans in M.I.P.
surveys by the wayabortion is 13, guns are
12 economy, jobs, Iraq, terrorism, health
1-5 Thermometer rate 0-100 on warm/cold
scale for gays is rising from avg. of 30 to
almost 50!
9
Gay Marriage contd Youth opinions
replacing older is driving trend PARTY
difference betw. DEM / REP only 6 pts. Still,
a majority (60) say homosexual behavior is
wrong, BUT most dont want to legislate on it
2004 election myth about gay marriage bans
effects in states did the bans increase turnout
for Bush with traditional voters win the race?
NO. Bush vote up 2 with almost all
subgroups
10
Gay Marriage conclusions About 40 of
Americans support gay marriage! About 40 of
Americans favor a constitutional (U.S.) ban on
gay marriage So there is at least a 20
group who dont want gay marriage, BUT also dont
support any change to U.S. Constitution to ban
the practice
11
QUESTIONS ? . . .