Urban Land Market Assessment in Brazil: A Progress Report

1
Urban Land Market Assessment in Brazil A
Progress Report

• Cities Alliance-World Bank-Habitat/LAC-IPEA
• December 2002

2
Format of Presentation

• Goals of Project
• Research Approach
• LMA Policy Questions
• Work steps
• Discussion Questions

3
Goals of the Project

• Systematic assessment of residential land supply
  in Brasilia, Recife and Curitiba
• Systematic assessment of residential land prices
• Analysis of effects of infrastructure, titling
  and location on land prices and residential land
  stock
• Demonstrate feasibility and value of LMA in
  Brazil

4
Definition of Study Area

• Metropolitan scope
• Interest in fringe area urban development

5
Establish Geographic Zones for Data Organization

• Homogeneous
• More zones are better, but more zones require
  more fieldwork

6
Basic Land Use and Population Data for
Tabulation

• 1. zone identification number
• 2. size of zone in hectares
• "x" and "y" coordinate of the zone centroid
• total urbanized land in base year in hectares  
• 5. total urbanized land in current year in
  hectares  
• 6. total residential land area in base year
  (gross area)  
• 7. total residential land area in current year
  (gross area)  
• 8. total housing units in base year  
• 9. total housing units in current year  

7
Basic Land Use and Population Data for Tabulation
-2

• 10. vacant land area in base year  
• 11. vacant land area in current year  
• 12. vacant land with infrastructure in base year
   
• 13. vacant land with infrastructure in current
  year  
• 14. change in urbanized land, base-current year
  in hectares  
• 15. change in residential land area,
  base-current year  
• 16. change in total housing units, base-current
  year  
• 17. change in vacant land area, base-current
  year

8
Basic Land Use and Population Data for Tabulation
-3

• 18. change in vacant land with
  infrastructure, base-current year
• 19. population in base year
• 20. population in current year
• 21. change in population, base-current year
• 22. population density in base year
• 23. population density in current year
• 24. change in population density,
  base-current year

9
Land Value Information  

• Questionnaire survey of formal/informal brokers
• Cover all active markets
• Variety of methods used to identifiy brokers
• Each survey response tabulated on a questionnaire
  
• The survey data organized according to geographic
  zones

10
Land Value Information-2

• 25. median land value (per square meter) for
  residential plots types A, B, C D base year
• 26. median land value (per square meter) for
  residential plots types A, B, C D current year
• 27. change in median land value (per square
  meter) for residential plots types A, B, C D,
  base-current year

11
Types of plots

• A. plot with street
• B. plot A electricity
• C. plot B water
• D. Formal complete
• E. parcels

• property title y/n
• property title y/n
• property title y/n
• property title yes
• property title y/n

12
Speadsheet Layout of data
13
Using Aerial and Satellite Images

• Tabulating Residential land uses
• Analysis patterns of urban development of land
• Estimating Current and Future Developable Land
  Supply

14
Adding Project Information to Land Market Data
Base

• Drawing a Sample of Projects
• Project Surveys
• Combining Project Surveys with Market Information

15
Project Surveys

• 1. land area of project  
• 2. number of housing units or plots by model
  type or size  
• 3. the selling price of units or plots by model
  type or size  
• 4. the sales rate of units or plots per month
  by model type and size  
• 5. the terms of financing available for the
  project and  
• 6. profiles of buyers of units or plots
  including income, occupation, prior residence
  and whether they were first-time buyers.  

16
LMA Policy Questions

• impact of regulation on land prices
• impact of title on land prices
• impact of taxes on land prices
• impact of infrastructure on land prices
• impact of location on land prices

17
Work Steps

• 1. Agree on research design and approach (now)
• 2. Prepare questionnaires and data sources and
  systems (1st month)
• 3. Complete 50 of field work (2nd month)
• 4. Complete remaining field work (3rd month)
• 5. Summit draft report and data bases and maps
  (4th month)
• 6. Finalize report, databases and maps (5th month)

18
Discussion and Questions