OBJECTIVES:

1
Diagnostics and Prediction of Climate Variability
and Human Health Impacts in the Tropical Americas
Interamerican Institute for Global Change Research
Cooperative Research Network

• OBJECTIVES
• Research Conduct research, both empirical and
  conceptual, aimed at generating knowledge about
  climate/health associations and appropriate tools
  for data analysis, with a focus on malaria and
  dengue.
• Network building a) strengthen the flow of
  information about the impact of climatic
  variability on human health in the Tropical
  Americas b) develop dialogue about
  interdisciplinary research issues with other
  organizations working in public health, ecology,
  climatology and social science c) build regional
  capacity to disseminate and utilize effectively
  data on climate prediction and health.
• Training a) increase opportunities for Latin
  American nationals for training in climate and
  health research b) conduct regional workshops an
  climate and health in the Tropical Americas.

• RESULTS
• Characterization of a natural decrease in malaria
  incidence during ENSO years in northern Amazonia,
  Brazil.
• Development of a conceptual model on the social
  vulnerability of the population to the health
  impacts of climate variability in tropical
  America.
• Dengue epidemics have a pronounced seasonality
  (peaking in the later half of the year) in the
  Caribbean and are more probable in an El Niño or
  El Niño 1 year. There appears to be a close
  association of the epidemic with temperature.
• Temperature strongly affects the life cycle of
  An. albimanus, the main malaria vector in
  Colombia.
• Modeling efforts confirm the importance of
  temperature in explaining malaria incidence in
  Colombia.
• Preliminary analysis (vector control variables
  not included) show an association
  precipitation/malaria stronger than for
  temperature in Mexico.
• Important outbreaks of dengue fever were observed
  during the 1997-1998 ENSO in Mexico.
• Positive correlation of malaria with mean
  relative humidity and monthly minimum temperature
  in Venezuela.

METHODS

• PUBLICATIONS
• ARON JL CORVALAN CF PHILIPPEAUX H (Eds.).
  2002. Climate Variability and Change and their
  Health Effects in the Caribbean Information for
  Adaptation Planning in the Health Sector.
  Conference May 21-22, 2002, Workshop May 23-25,
  2002, St. Philip, Barbados, West Indies.
  WHO/SDE/PHE/02.01, WHO, Geneva (in press).
• CHEN AA, TAYLOR MA. 2002. Investigating the link
  between Caribbean early season rainfall and the
  El Niño 1 year. Int Journal of Climatology, 22
  87-106.
• CONFALONIERI UEC. 2003. Climate Variability,
  Social Vulnerability and Human Health in Brazil.
  Proc. V Brazilian Congress on Geographic
  Climatology (in press).
• DIAZ HF KOVATS RS MCMICHAEL AJ NICHOLLS N.
  2001. Climate and human health linkages on
  multiple timescales. In History and Climate
  Memories of the Future? (Jones PD, Davies TD,
  Ogilvie AEJ, Briffa KR, eds.), Kluwer
  Academic/Plenum Publishers, New York, pp.
  267-289.
• NOBRE AA LOPES HF. 2002. Spatial analysis of the
  relationships between malaria and rainfall in the
  State of Pará. First National Symp. Probability
  and Statistics, A. Lindóia, Brazil, July 2002 (in
  press).
• POVEDA G ROJAS W VÉLEZ ID QUIÑONES M MANTILLA
  RI RUIZ D ZULUAGA J RUA G. 2001. Coupling
  between Annual and ENSO timescales in the
  Malaria-Climate association in Colombia.
  Environmental Health Perspectives, 109 489-493.
• RUA G QUIÑONES ML ZULUAGA JS VELEZ ID POVEDA
  G ROJAS W RUIZ D MANTILLA R. 2002. El
  Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related to
  malaria transmission, density and parity of
  Anopheles albimanus and Anopheles darlingi in two
  areas in Colombia. Medical and Veterinary
  Entomology (in press).

• PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES / INSTITUTIONS
• BRAZIL FIOCRUZ
• USA IRI, NOAA, SCS, Univ. of Florida, Univ. of
  Colorado
• VENEZUELA Instituto de Altos Estudios en Salud
  Pública
• COLOMBIA Univ. Nacional de Colombia, Medellín
• MEXICO Inst. de Salud, Ambiente y Trabajo
• JAMAICA Univ. West Indies, Mona
• 27 Investigators.
• Students 4 Doctoral 7 Master 5 Undergraduate.

• ASSOCIATED PROJECTS
• Assessment of the Vulnerability of the Brazilian
  Population to the Health Impacts of Climate
  Change (Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, funded by the
  Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology).
• The Threat of Dengue Fever Assessment of
  Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Human
  Health in the Caribbean (University of West
  Indies, funded by GEF/UNEP).