China and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities

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China and Climate Change Challenges and
Opportunities
Trish McCubbinAssociate ProfessorSouthern
Illinois University School of Law
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Research Institute for Environmental Law Wuhan
University School of Law Wuhan, Hubei Province
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Concerns About Unilateral Action by the U.S.

• ? China is now the 1 emitter of greenhouse
  gases (GHGs) by annual volume.
• ? Some assume China is doing nothing to reign in
  its GHGs, just like 10 years ago during the Kyoto
  negotiations.

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Roadmap for Future Negotiations with China

• ? Chinas New Political Will to Address GHGs
• Common but
• Differentiated
• Commitments from Developed and
  Developing Nations
• ? Need for Improvements in the Rule of Law in
  China

5
The New Chinese Political Will to Address GHGs
International Pressures

• Fourth Assessment Report of
  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  (2007)

2008 Olympics in Beijing
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The New Chinese Political Will to Address GHGs
(Continued)
Domestic Pressures

• New study by Chinese government of domestic
  climate change impacts (June 2007) -
  Loss of agricultural production
• - Melting of Tibetan plateau
• - Destruction of habitat for giant panda
• - Flooding of coastal areas from sea
  level rise

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The New Chinese Political Will to Address GHGs
(Continued)
Chinas Severe Domestic Environmental Degradation

• 16 out of 20 of the worlds most
  polluted cities are in China.
• Only 1 of cities meets modern
  air quality standards.
• World Bank estimate 750,000
• premature deaths each year
• from air pollution

Living in Chinas most polluted cities is a
pulmonary disaster equivalent to smoking two
packs of cigarettes a day. State
Environmental Protection Administration Official
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Governments Strong Desire to Address Domestic
Environmental Conditions

• Growing citizen protests
• - est. 50,000 annually
• Government concern
• about social instability

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Governments Strong Desire to Address Domestic
Environmental Conditions

• Governments own Green GDP
  calculation in 2006
• 3 annual loss
• World Banks estimate
• 8 annual loss

October 7, 2009
Prof. Trish McCubbin
9
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Chinas Domestic Commitments on GHGs So Far

• 11th Five-Year Plan (2006)
• ? National Climate Change Programme (June
  2007)
• ? National Energy Plan (December 2007)

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Chinas Domestic Commitments on GHGs So Far
(Continued)

• Commitments
• - Improved energy efficiency (target 4
  reduction each year)
• - Greater fuel efficiency
  standards for vehicles
• - More reliance on non-carbon
  fuels
• - Use of carbon capture and
  sequestration at coal-fired power plants

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Merely Paper Commitments?

• 2006 goal of reducing energy usage not met only
  reduced by 1.23, not 4
• Similar goal for 2007 also missed reduced only
  by 3.27
• 2008 4 goal supposedly met

October 7, 2009
Prof. Trish McCubbin
12
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Important Signals of Cooperation from Chinese
Central Government

• President Hu Jintao
• China can no longer afford the excessively
  high price to the environment caused by the
  nations rapid economic growth. (Oct. 2007)
• Chinese Diplomat at Bali negotiations
• China will follow if the European Union and the
  United States lead in international efforts to
  address GHGs. (Dec. 2007)

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Key Differences BetweenChina and U.S.

• Population
• China1.3 Billion
• America0.3 Billion
• U.S. per capita GHG emissions are
  4 to 5 times Chinas.
• Pollution by Proxy
• Carnegie and
• Tyndall Studies

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Poverty and Chinas Status as a Truly Developing
Country

• World Bank estimates 300 million Chinese
  live below poverty level.
• 100s of millions live above the poverty line
  but are still unable to afford basics like
  education or healthcare.

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U.S. and International Recognition of Common but
Differentiated Responsibilities of All Nations

• Agreements
• ? U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change
  (1992)
• ? APEC Summit Statement (September
  2007)
• ? Bali Action Plan (December 2007)

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Common But Differentiated Responsibilities in
Practice

• For U.S. and other developed nations
• Annual cap on GHG emissions set
  substantially below current levels
• For China and other developing nations
• Growth of GHGs, but with measures to slow
  the growth
• and (ideally) peak in 2020 or 2025
• Bali Plan Measurable, verifiable and
  reportable

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The Need for Improvements in the Rule of Law
Structural Problems with Environmental Legal
Regime
? Low penalties ? Enforcement by provincial
officials with conflicts of interest ?
Limited role for citizens
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The Need for Improvements in the Rule of Law
(Continued)
Broader Challenges to the Rule of Law Generally

• Judiciary subject to
• political pressure
• Corruption found within
• judiciary
• Challenge of modernizing
• judicial system