OnBoarding

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AEDC-AIAA U.S. Air Force TE Days 6-8 December
2005
Flight Testing - A Look Ahead
Paul Metz Vice President F-35 Integrated Test
Force (Flight Test)
122104-1 On-Boarding
Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company
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• The Strange Paradox of
• Coolidge, Augustine, Eskew and Moore
• Or
• The Role Of Flight Testers in Acquisition

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(No Transcript)
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Thomas P. ChristieDirector of Operational Test
and EvaluationDoD National Defense Magazine May
2004

• In the post-9/11 era, testers are facing
  formidable challenges, he noted. They
  (testers) often are perceived as impediments to
  progress that slow down the acquisition process.
  Program offices and developers appear at times
  to be learning faster how to avoid testing than
  we are learning to do it better, he said. Right
  or wrong, the concept of milestone-driven OTE
  appears to be becoming a process of the past.
• Either we change our way of doing business,
  adapt to the new acquisition paradigms and the
  realities of the war on terrorism, or we will
  find ourselves becoming irrelevant with dire
  consequences for our operational forces.

There seems to be a message here..
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Changes In Acquisition Ahead??

• USAF's New Chief Eyes Speeding Up Acquisition
  (Posted Tuesday, September 13, 2005) Aerospace
  Daily Defense Report, Sept. 13, 2005
• USAF Meeting with MIT To Develop 'Lean'
  Acquisition Process (Posted Friday, September
  16, 2005) Aerospace Daily Defense Report,
  Sept. 16, 2005

Why This Increased Emphasis on Testing and the
Acquisiion Process?
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The Appearance of Change 1911-1990
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Speed of Change 1911-1918

• Bristol Scout C of Captain Lanoe G. Hawker
• circa March 1915

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Speed of Change 1911-1918
Approximately 6 Week Development and Test Time in
WW I

• Morane Saulnier of Roland Garros
• circa April 1915

Anthony Fokker Countered in May 1915 Requirement
on Tuesday, Demo of Design on Friday
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Speed of Change 1938-1945
Approximately 4 Years of Technology Improvements
P-51A 4 Months Contract to First Flight
Approximately 1-2 Year Development and Test Time
in WW II
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Speed of Change a Technical Revolutioncirca1943
Revolutionary Change
USAAC RFP June 1943 First Flight June 1944
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The Appearance of Change Today
Approximately 25 Years of Technology Improvements
Q Whats Really Happening Here?
A The Driving Technology Cycle Time Is
Decreasing. Development and Test Time Is
Increasing
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The Strange Paradox of Coolidge, Augustine,
Eskew and Moore

• Coolidges View of Military Aviation- circa 1926
• Why Cant They (the fledgling Army Air Corps)
  Just Buy One Airplane, and Take Turns Flying It?
• May 1926

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(From Augustines Laws)
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(From Augustines Laws)
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Costs of Aircraft in 30 Years 1950-1980Dr Henry
L. Eskew PhD, Center for Naval Analysis
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Time is Money Dr Henry L. Eskew PhD, Center for
Naval Analysis
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(Gordon Moore 1965)
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• Cross Plot
• Calvin Coolidges Revenge
• Eskews Development Times
• Moores Law

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My Head Hurts!
Moores Law Construct
Relevant Technology Cycle Time
Development Time
Aircraft Unit Costs
The Coolidge-Augustine Construct
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The Technology-Development Cycles
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The Realities of Acquisition - 2005

• Elusive Enemy Not Based On Technology
• Attempting To Counter With Technology
• Relevant Technology (Computers) Changing Faster
  Than Development Cycle (Moores Law Effect)
• Weapons Acquisition Must Accelerate To Stay
  Ahead of Enemy

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The Worldwide Challenge
How Do We Stop Terrorism?
Answer

• State Acceptable Behaviors
• Observe Behavior
• Be All Knowing
• Be All Seeing
• Punish Transgressors
• Mongoose Quick
• Pinpoint Precision

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The WorldwideChallenge
What is required To Do This??

• Exploit Technology
• Get Our Friends To Help

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The Testers Challenge

• Field Weapons Systems Faster
• Engage in Total Validation Process (It Isnt
  Just About Flight Test)
• Offer Up New Flight Test Methods
• New Testing Tools
• Reduce Test Granularity
• Reduce Test Costs
• Help Move Us Back Inside the Technology Loop