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The Texas Dropout Crisis

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Editorial Projects in Education ... Brown University, John Tyler. Used longitudinal, student-level data. ... Compared to Lofstrom/Tyler Analysis. Summary ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The Texas Dropout Crisis


1
The Texas Dropout Crisis

Magnitude and Impact A LEGISLATIVE BRIEFING ON
THE TEXAS DROPOUT CRISIS January 23, 2007, 815 -
1000 AM Texas State Capitol, E2.026
2
IDRA Attrition Research 1986 - 2006
  • Numbers
  • Causes
  • Solutions
  • Dr. Albert Cortez
  • Intercultural Development Research Association

3
Texas Public School Attrition Rates
1985-86 33
1996-97 43
2005-06 35
4
Minorities - Persistently Highest Rates
1986 2006
Hispanic Attrition 47 47
African American Attrition 36 40
White Attrition 28 21
5
IDRA Estimates of Students Lost To Attrition
Year Percent Number of Students
1987-88 33 86,276
1996-97 43 147,313
2005-06 35 137,162
6
Cumulative Students Lost 1986 to 2006
  • 2,533,169

7
Texas Graduation RatesComparative Data
  • Dr. Eileen Coppola
  • Rice University Center for Education

8
Texas Graduation RatesComparative Data
  • Sources
  • Texas Education Agency
  • Editorial Projects in Education Research
    (Education Week)
  • University of Texas in Dallas/Brown University
  • The Civil Rights Project at Harvard University
  • University of Texas in Austin

9
TEA Secondary School Completion and Dropouts in
Texas Public Schools 2004-2005
2003 Reported Graduation Rates
Statewide 84.2
African American 81.1
Hispanic 77.3
White 89.8
Asian/Pacific Islander 91.5
Economically Disadvantaged 77.8
10
TEA Secondary School Completion and Dropouts in
Texas Public Schools 2004-05, District
Supplement, Large Districts
District Annual Grade 7-12 Dropout Rate Longitudinal Grade 9 Cohort Class of 2005 Graduation Rate Longitudinal Grade 9 Cohort Class of 2005 Dropout Rate
Houston ISD 2.4 73.8 12.5
Dallas ISD 1.5 77.8 7.9
Austin ISD 1.1 80.7 5.6
El Paso ISD 1.2 76.1 5.6
San Antonio ISD 1.7 76.0 8.0
11
Editorial Projects in Education Research Center
Diplomas Count
  • Used the Common Core of Data, an annual federal
    census
  • Cumulative Promotion Index, which tracks grade to
    grade promotion
  • The 84.2 statewide graduation rate reported by
    the TEA is 17 percentage points higher than the
    rate of 66.8 reported in Diplomas Count

12
Comparison of CPI versus TEA Graduation Rates
Statewide and by Ethnicity
13
Comparison of CPI versus TEA Rates for Major
Texas Districts
14
The High School Pipeline (CPI)
15
University of Texas in Dallas,Magnus
LofstromBrown University, John Tyler
  • Used longitudinal, student-level data.
  • A student belongs to the graduating class during
    the year s/he turns 18.
  • A student is defined to be a school dropout if
    s/he is observed enrolled in a Texas public
    school at age 15 and by the year s/he turns 20
    has not yet graduated nor is enrolled.
  • Study also found that in 1999 GED recipients
    fared only slightly better than dropouts in the
    Texas economy.

16
Texas Official Completion Rate Compared to
Lofstrom/Tyler Analysis
17
Summary
  • Statewide, the graduation rate is estimated by
    researchers as currently about 67, not the 84
    estimated by TEA.
  • The difference comes from removing missing
    students from the denominator count, and through
    use of leaver codes that obscure the extent of
    the crisis.

18
Summary
  • For African American, Latino, and Economically
    Disadvantaged students statewide, the graduation
    rate is approximately 60.
  • In our major urban districts, we see graduation
    rates that hover around 50.
  • In addition, one study by Heilig-Vazquez of UT
    Austin shows ELL graduation rates as low as 20
    for a major urban district.
  • These figures are consistent with IDRAs
    attrition research.

19
The Costs of Dropping Out
  • Frances Deviney, Ph.D., Center for Public Policy
    PrioritiesAlbert Cortez, Ph.D., Intercultural
    Development Research Association

20
Cost of Dropping Out
  • Cost to the Student
  • Cost to the Education System
  • Cost to the State

21
Cost to the Individual
  • 2006 Official federal poverty line
  • Family of 2 lt 13,200/year
  • Family of 3 lt 16,600/year
  • Family of 4 lt 20,000/year

22
Cost to the Individual
Source Median Earnings in Past 12 Months for
Texas Population 25 and Over, 2005 American
Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
23
Cost to the Individual
  • Texas teens 16-19 years old not in school and do
    not have a high school degree
  • Over 98,000
  • Increase in earnings potential if graduated
  • Single dropout 9,211 more / year
  • All dropouts Over 900 million more / year
  • All dropouts 3.6 billion more in four years

Source Tables C14005 B20004, 2005 American
Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
24
Cost to the Education System
  • Student Loss Before Graduation
  • The Class of 2004
  • 9th 10th 68,000
  • 10th 11th 26,000
  • 11th 12th 22,000
  • 12th grad 12,000
  • Total Nearly 130,000

25
Cost to the Education System
  • If all 360,857 students originally enrolled in
    the 9th grade in 2000-2001 stayed in the Texas
    public school system until graduation in 2004 . .
    .
  • Cost an additional 1.7 billion
  • This is just the cost for the Class of 2004!
  • And it is a conservative estimate!
  • Source Deviney, F. P., Cavazos, L. (2006). The
    High Cost of Dropping Out How Many, How Come,
    How Much. Center for Public Policy Priorities.

26
Cost to the State
  • High school dropouts have greater need for
    government assistance
  • 4 in 10 receive government assistance (2001, ages
    16-24)
  • More likely to be unemployed
  • 8 times as likely to be incarcerated (2006)
  • Significant loss in tax revenue

27
Cost to the State
  • IDRA analysis of Social Service Costs
  • Job Training
  • Adult Education
  • Unemployment Job Placement
  • Crime Incarceration
  • Lost Wages
  • Lost Tax Revenue

28
Cost to the State
  • Over time, dropouts from the Class of 1986 cost
    Texas
  • 16.89 billion dollars
  • 137,504 average earnings loss per dropout
  • 58,930 average loss in taxes
  • Source Cardenas, J. A., Robledo, M. R., Supik,
    J. D. (1986). Texas School Dropout Survey
    Project A Summary of Findings. IDRA.

29
Cost to the State
  • Since their initial study, IDRA estimates
  • 2.5 million students lost
  • Cost of 730.1 billion to Texas!
  • Source Johnson, R. (2006). Texas Public School
    Attrition Study, 2005-06. IDRA.

30
Addressing the Dropout Crisis in Texas
  • Principles for Action
  • Dr. Angela Valenzuela, University of Texas, Texas
    Center for Educational Policy
  • Dr. Robert Sanborn, CHILDREN AT RISK
  • Dr. Albert Cortez, Intercultural Development
    Research Association

31
Principles for Action
Principle 1 All students enrolled in Texas
secondary schools should be expected, and must be
supported, to graduate from high school with a
regular high school diploma. Principle 2 The
state must restore the credibility of official
dropout counts by accurately accounting for the
educational status of every pupil that entered
the 9th grade in any Texas secondary school.
Principle 3 Using Texas excellent
student-level longitudinal data, the state should
implement a transparent and simple methodology to
count and report on dropouts. Reporting should be
readily available and easily accessible to the
public. Reporting must directly inform
communities and parents about the status of the
issue and progress being made to address it.
32
Principles for Action
  • Principle 4 State efforts to decrease the
    dropout rate should recognize and address
    systemic issues that affect student graduation,
    documented by research (including teaching
    quality, curriculum quality and access, student
    engagement, etc.) and incorporate both dropout
    prevention and dropout recovery.
  • Principle 5 Ongoing evaluation must be an
    integral part of any effort at the state and
    local level to address the dropout problem.
  • Principle 6 In ensuring that all students
    graduate, schools should incorporate pedagogical
    changes that allow them to better adapt to the
    needs and strengths of their students.

33
Principles for Action
  • Principle 7 No single criterion (e.g. high
    stakes testing) should be used to make high
    school graduation decisions for any individual
    student.
  • Principle 8 The state must acknowledge shared
    accountability for the dropout issue at state,
    district and local levels by investing the
    personnel and fiscal resources needed to help
    schools meet state-established graduation
    targets. Adequate, equitable funding must be
    allocated to address this crisis.
  • Principle 9 Any response to the dropout issue
    must be based on valuing Texas families,
    educators, communities, and students no response
    should promote a deficit model or blame.
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