Title: The Texas Dropout Crisis
1The Texas Dropout Crisis
Magnitude and Impact A LEGISLATIVE BRIEFING ON
THE TEXAS DROPOUT CRISIS January 23, 2007, 815 -
1000 AM Texas State Capitol, E2.026
2IDRA Attrition Research 1986 - 2006
- Numbers
- Causes
- Solutions
- Dr. Albert Cortez
- Intercultural Development Research Association
3Texas Public School Attrition Rates
1985-86 33
1996-97 43
2005-06 35
4Minorities - Persistently Highest Rates
1986 2006
Hispanic Attrition 47 47
African American Attrition 36 40
White Attrition 28 21
5IDRA Estimates of Students Lost To Attrition
Year Percent Number of Students
1987-88 33 86,276
1996-97 43 147,313
2005-06 35 137,162
6Cumulative Students Lost 1986 to 2006
7Texas Graduation RatesComparative Data
- Dr. Eileen Coppola
- Rice University Center for Education
8Texas Graduation RatesComparative Data
- Sources
- Texas Education Agency
- Editorial Projects in Education Research
(Education Week) - University of Texas in Dallas/Brown University
- The Civil Rights Project at Harvard University
- University of Texas in Austin
9TEA Secondary School Completion and Dropouts in
Texas Public Schools 2004-2005
2003 Reported Graduation Rates
Statewide 84.2
African American 81.1
Hispanic 77.3
White 89.8
Asian/Pacific Islander 91.5
Economically Disadvantaged 77.8
10TEA Secondary School Completion and Dropouts in
Texas Public Schools 2004-05, District
Supplement, Large Districts
District Annual Grade 7-12 Dropout Rate Longitudinal Grade 9 Cohort Class of 2005 Graduation Rate Longitudinal Grade 9 Cohort Class of 2005 Dropout Rate
Houston ISD 2.4 73.8 12.5
Dallas ISD 1.5 77.8 7.9
Austin ISD 1.1 80.7 5.6
El Paso ISD 1.2 76.1 5.6
San Antonio ISD 1.7 76.0 8.0
11Editorial Projects in Education Research Center
Diplomas Count
- Used the Common Core of Data, an annual federal
census - Cumulative Promotion Index, which tracks grade to
grade promotion - The 84.2 statewide graduation rate reported by
the TEA is 17 percentage points higher than the
rate of 66.8 reported in Diplomas Count
12Comparison of CPI versus TEA Graduation Rates
Statewide and by Ethnicity
13Comparison of CPI versus TEA Rates for Major
Texas Districts
14The High School Pipeline (CPI)
15University of Texas in Dallas,Magnus
LofstromBrown University, John Tyler
- Used longitudinal, student-level data.
- A student belongs to the graduating class during
the year s/he turns 18. - A student is defined to be a school dropout if
s/he is observed enrolled in a Texas public
school at age 15 and by the year s/he turns 20
has not yet graduated nor is enrolled. - Study also found that in 1999 GED recipients
fared only slightly better than dropouts in the
Texas economy.
16Texas Official Completion Rate Compared to
Lofstrom/Tyler Analysis
17Summary
- Statewide, the graduation rate is estimated by
researchers as currently about 67, not the 84
estimated by TEA. - The difference comes from removing missing
students from the denominator count, and through
use of leaver codes that obscure the extent of
the crisis.
18Summary
- For African American, Latino, and Economically
Disadvantaged students statewide, the graduation
rate is approximately 60. - In our major urban districts, we see graduation
rates that hover around 50. - In addition, one study by Heilig-Vazquez of UT
Austin shows ELL graduation rates as low as 20
for a major urban district. - These figures are consistent with IDRAs
attrition research.
19The Costs of Dropping Out
- Frances Deviney, Ph.D., Center for Public Policy
PrioritiesAlbert Cortez, Ph.D., Intercultural
Development Research Association
20Cost of Dropping Out
- Cost to the Student
- Cost to the Education System
- Cost to the State
21Cost to the Individual
- 2006 Official federal poverty line
- Family of 2 lt 13,200/year
- Family of 3 lt 16,600/year
- Family of 4 lt 20,000/year
22Cost to the Individual
Source Median Earnings in Past 12 Months for
Texas Population 25 and Over, 2005 American
Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
23Cost to the Individual
- Texas teens 16-19 years old not in school and do
not have a high school degree - Over 98,000
- Increase in earnings potential if graduated
- Single dropout 9,211 more / year
- All dropouts Over 900 million more / year
- All dropouts 3.6 billion more in four years
Source Tables C14005 B20004, 2005 American
Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
24Cost to the Education System
- Student Loss Before Graduation
- The Class of 2004
- 9th 10th 68,000
- 10th 11th 26,000
- 11th 12th 22,000
- 12th grad 12,000
- Total Nearly 130,000
25Cost to the Education System
- If all 360,857 students originally enrolled in
the 9th grade in 2000-2001 stayed in the Texas
public school system until graduation in 2004 . .
. - Cost an additional 1.7 billion
- This is just the cost for the Class of 2004!
- And it is a conservative estimate!
- Source Deviney, F. P., Cavazos, L. (2006). The
High Cost of Dropping Out How Many, How Come,
How Much. Center for Public Policy Priorities.
26Cost to the State
- High school dropouts have greater need for
government assistance - 4 in 10 receive government assistance (2001, ages
16-24) - More likely to be unemployed
- 8 times as likely to be incarcerated (2006)
- Significant loss in tax revenue
27Cost to the State
- IDRA analysis of Social Service Costs
- Job Training
- Adult Education
- Unemployment Job Placement
- Crime Incarceration
- Lost Wages
- Lost Tax Revenue
28Cost to the State
- Over time, dropouts from the Class of 1986 cost
Texas - 16.89 billion dollars
- 137,504 average earnings loss per dropout
- 58,930 average loss in taxes
- Source Cardenas, J. A., Robledo, M. R., Supik,
J. D. (1986). Texas School Dropout Survey
Project A Summary of Findings. IDRA.
29Cost to the State
- Since their initial study, IDRA estimates
- 2.5 million students lost
- Cost of 730.1 billion to Texas!
- Source Johnson, R. (2006). Texas Public School
Attrition Study, 2005-06. IDRA.
30Addressing the Dropout Crisis in Texas
- Principles for Action
- Dr. Angela Valenzuela, University of Texas, Texas
Center for Educational Policy - Dr. Robert Sanborn, CHILDREN AT RISK
- Dr. Albert Cortez, Intercultural Development
Research Association
31Principles for Action
Principle 1 All students enrolled in Texas
secondary schools should be expected, and must be
supported, to graduate from high school with a
regular high school diploma. Principle 2 The
state must restore the credibility of official
dropout counts by accurately accounting for the
educational status of every pupil that entered
the 9th grade in any Texas secondary school.
Principle 3 Using Texas excellent
student-level longitudinal data, the state should
implement a transparent and simple methodology to
count and report on dropouts. Reporting should be
readily available and easily accessible to the
public. Reporting must directly inform
communities and parents about the status of the
issue and progress being made to address it.
32Principles for Action
- Principle 4 State efforts to decrease the
dropout rate should recognize and address
systemic issues that affect student graduation,
documented by research (including teaching
quality, curriculum quality and access, student
engagement, etc.) and incorporate both dropout
prevention and dropout recovery. - Principle 5 Ongoing evaluation must be an
integral part of any effort at the state and
local level to address the dropout problem. - Principle 6 In ensuring that all students
graduate, schools should incorporate pedagogical
changes that allow them to better adapt to the
needs and strengths of their students.
33Principles for Action
- Principle 7 No single criterion (e.g. high
stakes testing) should be used to make high
school graduation decisions for any individual
student. - Principle 8 The state must acknowledge shared
accountability for the dropout issue at state,
district and local levels by investing the
personnel and fiscal resources needed to help
schools meet state-established graduation
targets. Adequate, equitable funding must be
allocated to address this crisis. - Principle 9 Any response to the dropout issue
must be based on valuing Texas families,
educators, communities, and students no response
should promote a deficit model or blame.