How Select President

1
How Select President?

• How to select President was the most difficult
  question to our Framers.
• 4 times adopted then defeated election of
  President by Members of Congress.
• 2 times defeated direct election of President by
  people (who?).
• Did NOT want chosen by either Congress or by
  popular vote. So

2
Electoral College

• Electoral College was a compromise.
• Allow those eligible to vote to express
  preference for President.
• But, employ elite electors as independent check
  to make final decision in case voters choose
  wrong candidate.

3
Article II, section 1, clause 2

• State law (legislatures) governs appointment of
  electors equal to number of U.S. Representatives
  and U.S. Senators in each state.
• 100 Senators, 435 House Reps, plus 3 DC equals
  538.
• Electors may not hold any Federal office. They
  are state officers.

4
Electors as Free Agents

• Electors intended to be free agents to exercise
  an independent nonpartisan judgment as to who
  best qualified. Were to be distinguished,
  enlightened citizens.
• Select according to own will without concern for
  wishes of the people.
• However, almost from beginning they have been
  partisan. At first chosen by state legislatures,
  but by 1828 changed to popular vote. Voters vote
  for candidates, but are really voting for
  electors pledged to a candidate, who then
  actually votes for President.

5
Appointment of Electors

• By public vote for electors on statewide or
  district ballot.
• Madison wrote that district vote was method
  intended as most equitable. (Maine Nebraska)
• How Texas appoints?

6
Electoral College

• This produced an evolution into something Framers
  did not intend.
• Did not want development of political parties,
  but parties did.
• Did not want parties to control nomination of
  Presidential candidates.
• Would be appalled at partisan party selection of
  electors to destroy independence. Pledge.

7
Evolution

• In the beginning, electors voted for 2 persons
  for president on a single ballot. The majority
  winner was president and the runner-up was VP.
• Framers hoped none would receive a majority of
  total electoral votes so election would be
  decided by the House. But in 1789 1792 every
  elector voted for GW, so Adams was VP.
• Problems 1796 Adams (Federalist) and Jefferson
  (DR) finished 1st and 2nd, so Adams was Pres and
  Jefferson VP and they hated each other.

8
Election of 1800

• Democratic Republican (DR) candidates
• Thomas Jefferson 73 electoral votes
• Aaron Burr 73 electoral votes
• DR electors intended Jefferson to be President
  Burr to be VP but overzealously voted for both.
• Federalist candidates
• John Adams 65 electoral votes
• Charles C. Pinckney 64 electoral votes
• Federalist elector refused to vote for Pinckney
  to help Adams.
• Election thrown to Congress 20 state delegations
  voted for Jefferson, 4 for Burr and 2 did not
  vote.
• Resulted in 12th Amendment to prevent problem
  now requires separate ballots for Pres VP.

9
Amendment 12 (1804)

• Supercedes Article II, sec 1 to make impossible
  situation of election of 1800.

10
Amendment 12 (1804)

• President Vice President shall not be
  inhabitants of the same state.
• Texas voters sued Cheney 11/2000 as ineligible
  since both he Bush were residents of Texas.

11
Elector Voting

• Electors met in state capitols to cast separate
  votes for President Vice President.
• Congress decided 2nd Wednesday after 1st Monday
  in December

12
Amendment 12 (1804)

• Each states certified signed separate lists of
  electoral votes for President VP sealed sent
  to President of the Senate (VP) who counts in
  joint session of Congress. (Also sent to
  directors of US General Services Administration,
  the states secretary of state, and to the
  federal district judge of the district where each
  states electors met).
• 1/6/2005 Congress observed counting.
• 1/7/97 results were 379 for Clinton to 156 for
  Dole.
• 1870, Congress passed law if state vote not
  certified by Governor, they will not be counted
  unless Congress counts.

13
Amendment 12 (1804)

• If no presidential candidate receives majority
  (today 270 of 538 votes) ...
• House (2/3 quorum) chooses from (3) candidates
  with most electoral votes.
• Then each states US House delegation gets one
  vote for president. 50 total votes!
• If no decision made by March 4, then the VP is
  acting president.

14
Election of 1824

• Pop Electoral Vote
• 108,740(30.5) 84
• 153,544(43.1) 99
• 47,136(13.2) 37
• 46,618(13.1) 41
• Total Pop votes cast 356,038
• Total Electoral votes cast 261/132(maj)
• Thrown to Congress. Adams 13, Jackson 7, 3 cast
  for another.

• Demo-Rep candidates
• John Quincy Adams
• Andrew Jackson
• Henry Clay
• William H. Crawford

15
Amendment 12 (1804)

• If no vice presidential candidate receives 270 of
  538 votes ...
• Senate (2/3 quorum) chooses from (2) with most
  electoral votes. Each senator has 1 vote. 100
  votes!
• VP must be eligible to be president.

16
Electoral Map 2000-2010
17
1876 Electoral College

• Samuel Tilden(D), 51 pop vote, 4,284,020, and
  184 elector votes.
• Rutherford B. Hayes(R), 48 pop vote, 4,036,571,
  185 elector votes. 247,449 votes less than
  Tilden! 2.97 of vote difference.
• Disputes over 15 Electoral College votes in 4
  states threw decision to Congress.

18
1876 Electoral College

• 15 member Commission set up to decide outcome.
• Decisions by party lines, 8 to 7.
• Southern Democrat conservatives (Republicans
  today) cut secret deal.
• Throw election to Hayes in exchange for GOP
  pledge to pull Federal troops out of South
  permit return of white supremacist rule.

19
1876 Electoral College

• Finally took office March 5, 1877, 2 days after
  secret deal!
• Withdrew troops from the South.
• Hayes, dogged by taunts of President
  Rutherfraud.
• Hayes looses in 1880.

20
1888 Electoral College

• Grover Cleveland (D), 48.6 5,540,050 popular
  votes.
• 168 electoral college votes.
• Benjamin Harrison(R), 47.8 5,444,337 popular
  votes.
• 233 electoral college votes.
• Narrow wins in states tainted by vote fraud in
  NY Indiana
• 95,713 less pop votes than Cleveland. .8713 of
  popular vote.
• Cleveland defeats in 1892

21
Other Presidential Elections

• 1960 JFK 34,227,096/49.9
• 303 electors
• Nixon 34,108,546/49.6
• 219 electors
• 118,550 vote difference or .1735

22
Other Presidential Elections

• 1968 Nixon 31,783,783/43.4
• 301 electors
• Humphrey 31,271,839/42.7
• 191 electors
• 511,944 vote difference
• Wallace 9,899,557/13.5
• 46 electors

23
Other Presidential Elections

• 1976 Carter 40,828,587/50.1
• 287 electors
• Ford 39,147,613/48
• 240 electors
• 1,680,974 vote difference

24
2000 Presidential Election

• Gore 50,996,116
• 266 Electoral College votes
• Bush 50,456,169
• 271 Electoral College votes
• Gore gets 500,000 more votes than Bush! This the
  way we want winners?
• All else(mostly Nader) 3,835,594.

25
2000 Presidential Election

• Florida 25 depended on 537 of 6 million popular
  votes during vote recount challenge! Bush got all
  25.
• Florida SC said count 4/3 US SC said no count
  5/4!
• 2001 study concluded that had limited count
  continued, as Gore requested, Bush would get
  narrow win. However, had over-votes been
  counted, Gore would win.

26
Big 12 Electoral States

• California 55/1
• New York 31/-2
• Texas 34/2
• Florida 27/2
• Pennsylvania 21/-1
• Illinois 21/-1
• Michigan 17/-1
• New Jersey 15

• North Carolina 15/1
• Massachusetts 12
• Ohio 20/-1
• Indiana 11/-1
• 279 total electoral votes
• 270/538 needed to win!

27
If 3 Voters Vote in Each of 12

• Candidate X gets 24 popular votes.
• Winner take all/279 electoral votes.
• Candidate Y gets 12 popular votes.
• Earns 0 electoral votes. 
• But, in other 38 states, 1 million go to polls in
  each state (38,000,000).
• All vote for "y". Election results
• X has only 24 popular votes but 279 electoral
  votes. Winner!
• Y has 38,000,012 popular votes only 259 electoral
  votes. Looser.

28
Winner Take All

• Pennsylvania/21 electors
• A/4,500,001(50.1)
• B/4,5000,000(49.9)
• A gets all electors
• B gets nothing

• 7 smallest states 21 electors
• A/1,500,000(49.9)
• B/1,500,001(50.1)
• A gets nothing
• B gets all electors
• Therefore, small states with less population have
  same influence as PA! Voter in small state has
  more influence than voter in big state. One man
  one vote?

29
Article II, Section 1, clause 4

• Congress chooses day to select.
• 1st Tuesday after 1st Monday in November.
• No representative, senator, or other person
  holding an office of trust can be an elector.

30
14th Amendment electors

• Section 2 if any eligible is denied the right to
  vote
• Except those participating in rebellion or other
  crime,
• Then the States electors are reduced in
  proportion to the voting eligible population of
  the State.

31
Arguments Against Electoral College?

• Can cause election of minority president.
• 3 or more candidates split electoral vote so
  none get majority. 1824. In such case today, the
  US House elects.
• Solve with direct popular vote if above
  happened, have general election runoff, like
  Louisiana, which would cost more time money but
  how much is more confidence in democracy worth?
• Under current system, 3rd party candidate earns
  enough popular votes so none get over 50 of
  popular vote.
• How can have popular support of people?
• Happened in 15 presidential elections, like 1912,
  1916, 1948, 1960, 1968, 1992 1996. How can have
  popular support? Solve with runoff between 2
  highest vote getters.

32
Arguments Against Electoral College?

• Risk of faithless electors (pledged to vote for
  party candidate but votes for another). Dozen or
  so have defected from pledge.
• 1968 Republican voted for Wallace instead of
  Nixon 1988 Democrat elector voted for Lloyd
  Bentsen instead of Dukakas 12/18/2000 DC Gore
  elector Barbara Letot-Simmons left ballot blank
  to protest DC lack of voting rights 2004 West
  Virginia Republican mayor Richie Robb NOT voting
  for Bush.
• Popular vote eliminates problem, but if kept
  electoral college, could amend Constitution to
  eliminate individual elector voting (and their
  independence) in favor of pure math process
  where electors divided proportionally.

33
Arguments Against Electoral College?

• Can depress voter turnout.
• Since a State gets same number of electoral
  votes, regardless of popular turnout there is
  no incentive to encourage high turnout,
  especially if know by polling who will win!
• Candidates only campaign in battle ground
  states.
• In 2004 the candidates only campaigned in 15
  states. Ignore other 35 - in the bag!
• Citizens in other 35 states have a right to be
  involved in presidential election!

34
Arguments Against Electoral College?

• Failure to reflect national popular will.
• Rural states are over represented, such as 7
  smallest states totaling 3 million people have
  the same electoral votes (21) as does
  Pennsylvania (21) with 9 million people.
• Electoral college gives small states more voting
  weight largest states less voting weight than
  their populations. At 55, Californias share of
  538 is 15 less than its share of US pop.
  Wyomings share of the EC, 3, is over 200
  greater than its share of the pop.
• Pop votes count more in some states than others.
  Kerry wins California 55, while Bush wins Texas
  34, but pop vote for each does not justify the
  disparity in EC vote.

35
Arguments Against

• Unless you vote for the winner, your vote makes
  no difference (Unit rule or winner takes all).
• If you are a Republican in California or a
  Democrat in Texas, your vote doesnt matter. Red
  blue states polarize and distort true support.
• Unit rule or winner takes all law distorts
  popular will by allowing popular vote winner
  (majority or plurality) to obtain all electors.
• 2000 Bush got 4.6 million votes in California but
  Gore got all 55 electors. Gore received 2.4
  million votes in Texas but lost all 32 electors.
  It also makes it difficult for 3rd parties to
  earn any electoral votes, unless win them all.
  No matter if one looses by 1 vote or million.

36
Arguments Against

• While there are many other democratic countries,
  NONE use the electoral college. Why?
• Even in Iraq Afghanistan they do not want we
  do not encourage using the electoral college.
• The world pokes fun at US You mean the one who
  wins the popular vote is NOT always elected?

37
Arguments against

• It is a 19th century mousetrap from time when we
  had no confidence in democracy.
• Founders feared a candidate could dupe majority
  electoral college places a check on voters.
• The elites in the electoral college can
  overturn what they deem a poor choice by the
  voters. (Gore v. Bush) But today they are NOT
  independent but dupes of the party under Unit
  rule/winner take all.

38
Arguments for

• Unifies the country by requiring distribution of
  popular support.
• Prevents domination by large populous area over
  rural. Now no one region has enough electoral
  votes to elect.
• Supporters point out problems in China, Russia,
  India.
• The EC requires a winning candidate to
  demonstrate BOTH sufficient popular support AND
  distribution of support to govern.

39
Arguments for

• Protects federalism.
• by dividing power between national state
  governments giving states power. State view
  points more important than minority voter view
  points.
• Protects small states.
• by giving disproportionate number of electoral
  votes compared to small population. Prevents big
  states from controlling power.
• Protects 2 party system, thus, political
  stability.

40
Arguments for

• Popular vote would focus attention on high
  population areas at expense of rural areas.
• If elected by popular vote, could weaken major
  parties and give rise to 3rd parties. Could
  encourage many 3rd parties to fragment major
  party support so extremist could get in a runoff.
• A runoff election would prevent and is the way
  primaries are conducted and would avoid a
  plurality winner.
• Election by popular vote would change campaigning
  cause candidates to campaign in friendly areas
  of a state. Candidates would visit more states
  than do now.

41
Reform

• John Anderson Illinois want states to enter
  into interstate compact (Art. 1 section 10)
  agreement requiring a states electors to vote
  for the presidential candidate who wins the
  national presidential vote! (Remember, states
  have the constitutional power over electors).
• This would prevent the election of a presidential
  candidate in the future, who only received a
  minority of the popular vote.
• Will only work when enough states agree, who
  total 270 or more electoral votes.