Getting Honest about High School Graduation

1
Getting Honest about High School Graduation

• No Time to Waste Raising Achievement, Closing
  Gaps
• The Education Trust National Conference
• November 3, 2005

2
On-Time High School GraduationClass of 2001,
Nation
Source Christopher Swanson. Who Graduates?
Who Doesnt? A Statistical Portrait of Public
High School Graduation, Class of
2001. The Education Policy Center. The Urban
Institute.
3
Of the students who entered 9th grade in 2000-01

• 1,252,396 did not graduate by 2003-04

Source Christopher Swanson. June 2004.
Projections of 2003-04 High School Graduates
Supplemental findings from
Who Graduates? Who Doesnt? Education Policy
Center, the Urban Institute.
4
Graduation Rate Reporting Requirements Under NCLB

• Annual public reporting of four-year high school
  graduation rates overall and disaggregated by
  race/ethnicity, low-income status, disability
  status, and English language proficiency

5
For 2003, Three States Reported No Data At All

• Alabama
• Louisiana
• Massachusetts

Source Consolidated State Performance Reports
for School Year 2003-04 Submitted to the U.S.
Department of Education in January 2005
6
For 2003, Seven States Reported No Disaggregated
Data

• Arkansas
• Idaho
• Kentucky
• Michigan
• Mississippi
• Oklahoma
• Vermont

Source Consolidated State Performance Reports
for School Year 2003-04 Submitted to the U.S.
Department of Education in January
2005
7
And for those states that did report data, the
numbers raised flags in terms of accuracy and
honesty.
8
State-Reported Graduation Rates for All Students
Much Higher than National Estimates
68
Sources Consolidated State Performance Reports
for School Year 2003-04 submitted to the U.S.
Department of Education
Christopher Swanson. Who Graduates? Who
Doesnt? A Statistical Portrait of Public
High School Graduation, Class of
2001. The Education Policy Center. The Urban
Institute.
9
State-Reported Graduation Rates for African
American Students Much Higher than National
Estimates
50
Sources Consolidated State Performance Reports
for School Year 2003-04 submitted to the U.S.
Department of Education
Christopher Swanson. Who Graduates? Who
Doesnt? A Statistical Portrait of Public
High School Graduation, Class of
2001. The Education Policy Center. The Urban
Institute.
10
State-Reported Graduation Rates for Latino
Students Much Higher than National Estimates
53
Sources Consolidated State Performance Reports
for School Year 2003-04 submitted to the U.S.
Department of Education
Christopher Swanson. Who Graduates? Who
Doesnt? A Statistical Portrait of Public
High School Graduation, Class of
2001. The Education Policy Center. The Urban
Institute.
11
What are the problems with state-reported
graduation rates?

• 1) Bad definitions

12
North Carolinas graduation-rate definition

• Number of Graduates who Received their Diploma in
  Four Years or Less
• Number of Graduates

Source North Carolina Consolidated State
Performance Report for 2002-03
13
North Carolinas State-Reported Graduation Rate
vs. Independent Estimate
Sources North Carolina Consolidated State
Performance Report for School Year 2003-04
Christopher Swanson. Who Graduates?
Who Doesnt? A Statistical Portrait of Public
High School Graduation, Class of
2001. The Education Policy Center. The Urban
Institute.
14
New Mexicos graduation-rate definition

• Number of Seniors who Graduate
• Number of Seniors

Source New Mexico Consolidated State Performance
Report for 2002-03
15
New Mexicos State-Reported Graduation Rate vs.
Independent Estimate
Sources New Mexico Consolidated State
Performance Report for School Year 2003-04
Christopher Swanson. Who Graduates?
Who Doesnt? A Statistical Portrait of Public
High School Graduation, Class of
2001. The Education Policy Center. The Urban
Institute.
16
What are the problems with state-reported
graduation rates?

• Bad definitions
• 2) Inaccurate Data

17
The most commonly used state graduation-rate
definition

• Number of Graduates
• Number of Graduates Number of Dropouts

Source National Center for Education
Statistics, Task Force on Graduation, Completion,
and Dropout Indicators
18
We dont know where the kids go.

• Indianapolis Public Schools Board President Kelly
  Bentley
• Indianapolis Star Editorial, Early Warning Signs,
  May 19, 2005

19
Indianas State-Reported Graduation Rate vs.
Independent Estimate
Sources Indiana Consolidated State Performance
Report for School Year 2003-04
Christopher Swanson. Who Graduates? Who
Doesnt? A Statistical Portrait of Public
High School Graduation, Class of
2001. The Education Policy Center. The Urban
Institute.
20
Why does this matter?

• Because high school graduation matters.
• Because good information is the first step in any
  meaningful improvement process.
• Because inaccurate information undermines public
  trust in educators and public will to invest in
  school improvement.

21
Some states have recognized and acted on the need
for more accurate data.
22
Washington Outcomes for the Class of 2002
Source Washington Office of Superintendent of
Public Instruction. Pete Bylsma and Lisa
Ireland. September 2004.
Graduation and Dropout Statistics for
Washingtons Counties, Districts, and Schools
School Year 2002-03.
23
WashingtonOutcomes for the Class of 2002
Source Washington Office of Superintendent of
Public Instruction. Pete Bylsma and Lisa
Ireland. September 2004.
Graduation and Dropout Statistics for
Washingtons Counties, Districts, and Schools
School Year 2002-03.
24
WashingtonOutcomes for the Class of 2002
Source Washington Office of Superintendent of
Public Instruction. Pete Bylsma and Lisa
Ireland. September 2004.
Graduation and Dropout Statistics for
Washingtons Counties, Districts, and Schools
School Year 2002-03.
25
Washingtons new graduation-rate definition

• 100 (1 - 9th grade dropout rate in 2003)
• (1 - 10th grade dropout rate in 2003)
• (1 - 11th grade dropout rate in 2003)
• (1 - 12th grade dropout rate in 2003)

Source Washington Office of Superintendent of
Public Instruction. Pete Bylsma and Lisa
Ireland. September 2004.
Graduation and Dropout Statistics for
Washingtons Counties, Districts, and Schools
School Year 2002-03
26
WashingtonReported Dropouts for Class of 2003

• 21,390 Total
• 10,008 Location Unknown
• 9,713 Confirmed Dropouts
• 1,669 left to take GED

Source Washington Office of Superintendent of
Public Instruction. Pete Bylsma and Lisa
Ireland. September 2004.
Graduation and Dropout Statistics for
Washingtons Counties, Districts, and Schools
School Year 2002-03
27
WashingtonChange in Graduation Rate Following
New Definition
Source Washington Office of Superintendent of
Public Instruction. Pete Bylsma and Lisa
Ireland. September 2004.
Graduation and Dropout Statistics for
Washingtons Counties, Districts, and Schools
School Year 2002-03
28
Washingtons State-Reported Graduation Rate vs.
Independent Estimate
Sources Washington Consolidated State
Performance Report for School Year 2003-04
Christopher Swanson. Who Graduates?
Who Doesnt? A Statistical Portrait of Public
High School Graduation, Class of
2001. The Education Policy Center. The Urban
Institute.
29
The new rate was a major wake-up call.

• -Pete Bylsma, Washington State Director of
  Research, Evaluation, and Accountability

30
National Governors Association Task Force on
State High School Graduation DataRecommendations

• Immediately adopt and begin implementing a
  standard, four-year cohort graduation rate

On-time graduates
First-time entering 9th graders transfers in
transfers out
Source Graduation Counts A Report of the
National Governors Association Task Force on
State High School Graduation Data. 2005.
31
National Governors Association Task Force on
State High School Graduation DataRecommendations

• Build states data system and capacity
• Long-term develop student-unit-record
  system
• Short-term take steps to improve existing
  data

Source Graduation Counts A Report of the
National Governors Association Task Force on
State High School Graduation Data.
2005.
32
Governors from 48 states have publicly agreed to
improve their graduation-rate data.
33
This is a hugely important step forward, but good
information is just the beginning.

• To improve outcomes for students, we need
  meaningful accountability based on good data.

34
MarylandState-Reported Graduation Rate Exceeds
Graduation-Rate GOAL for NCLB Accountability
Sources Maryland Consolidated State Performance
Report for School Year 2003-04
Maryland Consolidated Accountability Plan for
NCB
35
For more informationDaria HallSenior Policy
AnalystThe Education Trust202-293-1217 ext.
349dhall_at_edtrust.orgwww.edtrust.org