The following variables play a key role in the 3rd and 4th quarter hog outlook, and will largely determine whether a repeat of 1998 is in store. We will keep these charts and tables updated as new information is released.

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The following variables play a key role in the
3rd and 4th quarter hog outlook, and will largely
determine whether a repeat of 1998 is in store.
We will keep these charts and tables updated as
new information is released.

• Updated
• 1998 vs 2002 Hog Inventory Quarterly
• Lean Hog Contract Daily Closing Prices Daily
• Monthly Pig Crop Monthly
• Quarterly Pig Crop Quarterly
• Pigs Per Litter Quarterly
• Cold Storage Stocks Monthly
• Canadian Feeder Pig Imports Monthly
• Pork Trade Monthly
• USDA World Supply, Demand Estimates Monthly

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December Lean Hog Contract Daily Closing Prices
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September Quarterly Hogs Pigs Report
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Monthly Pig Crop
June and July monthly pig crop estimates were
revised downward in the September quarterly
report. Monthly pig crop estimates during the
June-August period are now 1.0 to 2.6 lower
than last year. The next monthly Hogs and Pigs
Reports is scheduled for release on October 25
and can be accessed at  http//usda.mannlib.corne
ll.edu/reports/nassr/livestock/php-bb/2002/
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Quarterly Pig Crop
This chart shows the quarterly pig crop in 1998,
2001, and 2002. The March-May 2002 pig crop was
up 1.3 from last year. This chart shows that the
crop of pigs that will come to market in the 4th
quarter (March-May pig crop) will likely be
smaller than the corresponding crop in 1998.
However, Canada is exporting substantially more
feeder pigs to the US than in 1998. Consequently,
a smaller US pig crop could potentially hit the
capacity constraint. (See following page)
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4th Quarter Slaughter Actual 1998 vs Projected
2002
This chart compares actual 4th quarter 1998
weekly slaughter to projected 2002 weekly
slaughter. The 2002 estimates are based on an
estimated the market hog inventory by weight
class and 2001weekly slaughter. Most of the weeks
estimated slaughter is below 1998 levels and does
not exceed the 2.2 million head level, suggesting
the industry may survive the 4th quarter without
breeching packer capacity.
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Pigs Per Litter by Quarter
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Mean Dec-Feb 8.63
8.70 8.73 8.76 8.72 8.73 8.71 Mar-May 8.67 8.75
8.80 8.86 8.89 8.81 8.79 Jun-Aug 8.72 8.72 8.86 8
.84 8.87 8.87 8.80 Sep-Nov 8.68 8.66 8.78 8.85 8.
78 8.75 Mean 8.68 8.71 8.79 8.83 8.82 8.77 8.76
This table shows pigs per litter by quarter.
Pigs per litter in the Jun-Aug quarter improved
were identical to the same quarter last year,
providing further evidence that productivity
improvements in this variable may be leveling off.
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Cold Storage Stocks
This graph depicts the year to year percent
change in cold storage stocks on the last day of
the month. Stocks of all meats were relatively
low throughout much of 2001.
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Canadian Feeder Pig Imports
This graph shows weekly Canadian feeder pig
imports through weekending August 17. Canadian
feeder pig imports are up 27 from this point in
2001.
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Net Pork Exports
As the industry approaches packer capacity in the
4th quarter, hog prices will be largely dependent
on the packers ability to move their product.
Export market will play a key role. February net
pork exports dipped below year ago levels for the
first time since 2000, and remained lower until
July when exports surged, largely in anticipation
of the safeguard quota scheduled for
implementation on August 1.
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USDA 4th Quarter Pork Production Outlook
1998 2002 Forecast Change Forecast
Change Jan 4950 3.9 5175 -1.2 Feb 4950 3.9
5175 -1.2 Mar 4950 3.9 5175 -1.2 Apr 4950
3.9 5275 0.7 May 4950 3.9 5325 1.6
June 4950 3.9 5375 2.6 July 4950
3.9 5400 3.1 Aug 5000 4.9 5400 3.1 The
August 4th quarter production forecast remained
the same as the July forecast, which was revised
upward for the fourth consecutive month. The
current forecast projects 4th quarter production
up 3.1 from 4th quarter 2001. The next forecast
is scheduled for release September 12 and can be
accessed at http//www.ers.usda.gov/publications/
waobr/view.asp?fwasde-bb
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USDA 4th Quarter Price Outlook
1998 2002 Low High Low High January 36
40 38 42 February 36 40 38 42 March 35 37
38 42 April 35 37 35 37 May 35 37 30 32 Ju
ne 35 37 28 30 July 33 35 28 30 August 30 32
28 30
The 4th quarter price forecast was held constant
in August for the 3rd consecutive month. USDAs
June forecast is 25 lower than the forecast
released in March. Analysts are much more
cautious about 4th quarter prices than at this
point in the year during 1998. The next forecast
is scheduled for release September 12 and can be
accessed at http//www.ers.usda.gov/publications/
waobr/view.asp?fwasde-bb