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Migration in Demographic Perspective


Urb'n and Internal Migration Patterns in Latin America- Cerrutti & Bertoncello ... What lessons from the Latin American or Asian experiences? ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Migration in Demographic Perspective

Migration in Demographic Perspective
  • Overview provided by
  • Sally E. Findley
  • Rapporteur

My Objectives
  • Summarize critical theoretical premises in
    Patterns and Processes of International
    Migration in the 21st Century (Massey)
  • Show how the Regional papers address or
    illuminate these premises
  • Have Migration Patterns Changed in post-Apartheid
    South Africa-Posel
  • Urbn and Internal Migration Patterns in Latin
    America- Cerrutti Bertoncello
  • Bridging the Gap Internal Migration in
  • Identify queries that will help us collectively
    develop African perspectives on migration and
    urbanization that adapt these premises and

Theoretical Premise 1(Massey)
  • International migration is structured by economic
  • 4 historical periods of international migration
    mercantile, industrial, limited migration,
  • Migration flows originally dominated by European
    economic expansion
  • Current international migration patterns is
    structured around the extensive cross-national
    flows of capital, materials, and information

The Emergence of Dominant Migration Poles in the
21st Century
  • Two basic immigration systems (cf. Figure 2)
  • Diversified, globally networked flows
  • North America and Western Europe
  • lt50 of immigrants from same region
  • Concentrated, localized network flows
  • Persian Gulf, Asia-Pacific, Southern Cone
  • gt80 of immigrants from own region
  • South Africa is included in this group as a hub
    in international migration for Africa

Theoretical Premise 2 Development causes
  • International migration is stimulated by the
    development of markets, specifically when
    traditional and command economies are
    incorporated into global trade information
  • Caveat Initiation of migration does not equal
    perpetuation of migration ongoing
    transformations in the economy of sending and
    receiving nation-states will condition future
    migration patterns

Theoretical Premise 3 Market failure is more
important than market success
  • Failures in capital, credit, and insurance
    markets are more important than wage
  • Segmentation of the labor market underpins
    long-term demand for immigrant labor in core/pole

Theoretical Premise 4 Network expansion
perpetuates migration
  • Globalization involves social, political,
    information and communications integration across
  • Migration networks provide social capital to
    subsequent migrants

Theoretical Premise 5 Migration tends toward
  • Most migrants dont intend to stay permanently,
    but many factors lead migrants to prolong their
  • Even if migrants dont stay put, they may stay
  • However, in the aggregate a specific migration
    system may be of limited duration.

Theoretical Premise 6State policies influence
migration systems
  • States have political and ideological reasons to
    articulate restrictive policies
  • Explicit immigration policies often at odds with
    macro-economic policies
  • Dual labor market w/in pole is mirrored by dual
    immigration policy
  • Widening gap between immigration policy goals and
    the actual outcomes

Caveat to Theoretical Premise 6 States can only
go so far in regulating international migration
  • Global economy is not controlled by the State
  • Repression of migrants is politically difficult
  • Tendency to symbolic policies with only the
    appearance of control

Implications for international migration policies
in the 21st century
  • Unilateral State efforts to restrict and control
    immigration are doomed to fail.
  • Need to work multilaterally to manage
    international migration flows more effectively
    as a vital and positive dimension of economic

Where do African nations fit into this
international migration system?
  • Africans participate in migrations to the four
    major poles (and South Africa)
  • Half a million net emigrants from region in 2000
  • 20 of all emigrants from resource poor regions
  • African nations also are linked together in
    intra-continental migration flows
  • 16 million immigrants in Africa in 2000
  • Higher immigration rate than Asia or Latin
  • Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Tanzania are in the top
    20 nations receiving migrants 1990-2000
  • Mali, Somalia, Congo, Burundi and Sierra Leone
    among the top 20 sending nations
  • 23 of all immigrants in resource-poor regions

Perspectives from Latin America and Asia
  • Most African nations are far less urbanized than
    most nations in Latin America or Asia, but share
    with them important patterns of international and
    internal migration
  • Most international migrants move w/in the region
  • International migration is encompassed w/in a
    larger migration system with much more important
    rural-urban and urban-urban migration flows
  • How do Latin American and Asian
    international/internal migration systems differ
    from African patterns? Which subregions in each
    continent share similar patterns?

Queries about African International Migration
  • What is the African international migration
    system? Which countries serve as poles for this
    system, e.g., South Africa and others?
  • How can this model of African migrations be
    adapted to allow for varying stages of economic
    integration into the global economy? What lessons
    from the Latin American or Asian experiences?
  • How can the international migration system
    outlined by Massey be expanded to incorporate
    internal migration flows?

SAP The heavy toll of globalization
  • Debt is the corollary of global economic growth.
  • By 1995, African nations had over 300 billion in
    debt. Over a dozen African nations are severely
    indebted low-income countries.
  • Structural Adjustment Programs (SAP)are in place
    throughout Africa to structure debt repayment.
  • SAP undercuts agricultural sector earnings,
    wages, and health and social services
  • Migration Catch-22 of SAP Disinvestments
    demanded by SAP are precisely in things migrants
  • SAP has been associated with escalating

Latin American SAP Perspectives (Cerrutti and
  • Latin American nations also heavily indebted and
    also suffer from SAP
  • Increased dependence on agro-industry drives
    youth out of rural areas but tighter regional
    labor markets and cutback in metropolitan public
    services spreads migrants to secondary cities
  • Latin America is the only region with a reduction
    in migrant stock 1990-2000
  • How has SAP undercut State capacity, and in turn
    affected international migration systems as it
    appears to have in Africa?

Asian SAP Perspectives (Guest)
  • Economic crises of the late 1990s has increased
    urban unemployment, leading to migration
    turnaround with men returning home to rural
    areas in Thailand and Indonesia
  • Bridging the Gap Female migrants key in helping
    Thai rural families cope with their increased
  • Is Bridging the Gap also Bridges over SAP?
  • How has SAP changed urban growth patterns? In the
    more urbanized States, is there reduced primacy
    and increased growth of secondary cities?

South African Perspectives (Posel)
  • No explicit discussion of SAP
  • Notes rise of intra-African migrations with
    lifting of apartheid reflects the pattern
    identified by Massey re. South African migration
  • Increased undocumented migration may also be
    evidence of the response of other Africans to SAP
    in their countries
  • In what ways does South Africa conform to the
    post-industrial pole and how does continued
    circular migration related to mining industry
    suggest a different model?

Global economics Realities for African nations
  • African nations are enormously different in their
    degree of insertion into the global economy
  • Dual economies are present in African nations but
    spatial and demographic mix is reversed
  • Only the minority of the society and economy is
    directly linked to global capital or trade
  • The majority are in primary agricultural and
    secondary/informal sectors, with low
    capitalization and serving in an exploited
    capacity relative to the first/formal sector
  • Spatial concentration of global economic linkages
    in the cities in most African nations

Perspectives from Latin America and Asia
  • Failure of import substitution industrialization
    policies in Latin America, with shift to primary
    production for export
  • Mechanization of agriculture in Argentina was
    accomplished by urban, not rural, labor force
  • No reduction in rural outmigration
  • East and SE Asian countries have promoted
    export-led development w. free trade zones
  • Increased female rural-urban migration
  • Female migrants are more likely than males to
    settle in urban areas
  • Males are making temporary urban-rural migrations
    until they can re-establish in an urban area

African Queries re. Globalization
  • Which elements of the linkage between the global
    economy and national economic structures shift
    migrants into the international circuits and
    which into the internal circuits?
  • To what extent will international migrants
    continue the circular patterns of previous
    decades, even if with different destinations?
    What features of integration into the global
    economy most facilitate the rise of female

African migrants do not all go by choice
  • Many of the major sending countries also have
    large involuntary/forced migration flows.
  • Half of all African countries harbored African
    refugees in 1996
  • 4 million African refugees residing in other
    African nations in 1996
  • 22 of all immigrants to African nations are
    forced migrants
  • For every refugee there are 4 more internally
    displaced migrants
  • Many non-economic forces underpin these
    involuntary migrations weak States, ethnic
    conflicts, environmental degradation and drought

Latin American Perspectives on Ethnic/Political
  • Political control continues to influence
  • Violence in Colombia and Guatemala continue to
    push people to relative safety of cities
  • Consolidation of economic and political command
    functions in metropolises has strengthened their
    migration attraction
  • Revitalization of metropolises as smaller cities
    near megacities benefit from communications and
    transportation improvements
  • Primacy declined 1990-2000 in 6 nations

Asian Perspectives on Ethnic Factors
  • No explicit discussion of forced migration.
    Focus is on gendered migration expectations
  • Rising expectations by and for women
  • More education and higher status but also
    continued cultural expectation that daughters
    will support parents
  • Agricultural economic restructuring has reduced
    female labor force opportunities for women in
    rural areas
  • Result More female migrants remitting from urban
    jobs in Thailand

South African Perspectives on Ethnic Influences
  • Apartheid built into South Africa a
    racially-based labor circulation
  • Men could not bring families
  • Non-South Africans required to return every two
    years to homelands
  • Social and familial controls against female
  • Post-apartheid removed the racial constraints on
    migration, but did not reduce circulation
  • More households have temporary labor migrants
  • Female migration has increased
  • More rural households are receiving remittances
  • Insecure labor market dictates that more
    individuals migrate and retain return to rural
    home as fall-back option

Queries re. Ethnic conflict and African migrations
  • How does ethnicity and ethnic conflict further
    constrain and mold the influence of global
    economic forces on international migration?
    Which ethnic conflicts result in internally
    displaced rather than international refugees?
  • In what ways does post-industrial globalization
    perpetuate ethnic inequalities established during
    the colonial and industrialization period of
  • How does ethnic conflict mold beliefs about
    immigration and immigration policies?

Drought as another migration force
  • Asian perspective Drought of 1999 pushes many
    men back to Bangkok, even though employment
    situation has not improved
  • South Africa Can dramatic increase in remittance
    income in 1997-98 be related to the drought
    associated with the 1997-98 El Nino?
  • Adepoju and Findley have noted drought as a major
    regional destablizer in the Sahel, especially
    multi-year and severe droughts

Queries regarding drought, environment and
African migration
  • How are drought and environmental shocks
    incorporated into our models of international
  • Which features of the global economy will
    accentuate international migration during a
    drought/environmental crisis, and which will
    propel internal displacements?
  • How are involuntary environmental migrants
    unlike other international migrants e.g.
    periodicity, insertion into local economy,
    remittances, networks?

Demographic Structures Confounders in the
effects of ethnicity, drought, and globalization
  • Latin American and Asian perspectives Despite
    significant fertility declines in recent decades,
    globalization maintains high pressure on rural
    communities to divest themselves of their young.
  • In Latin America, 33 of rural children lt14
    became urban residents by the time they were
    15-29 yrs.
  • In SE Asia, 15-24 year old pop grew from 18 to
    21, and these young persons, increasingly
    female, are moving to urban areas

Queries re. Demographics of African migrations
  • Fertility is high in many African nations.
  • 16 African nations out of 17 which had not
    started the fertility transition by 2000
  • African countries have the highest proportions of
    children 0-14 in 2000.
  • What do Latin American and Asian perspectives
    tell us about pressure for rural out-migration,
    given these demographic realities in Africa?
  • How will African demographic realities further
    accentuate the impact of ethnicity and
    environmental vulnerability on migrations?
  • How will the HIV/AIDS epidemic further complicate
    the influence of age structure on migrations?

Migration Networks All network members may not
be the same
  • For many Africans, ethnicity is primary for the
    construction of migrant networks. This will
    produce ethnically segmented networks, thereby
    ethnically subdividing job, housing, information,
    and capital networks, which in turn can further
    polarize communities and labor markets.
  • Migration networks may not perpetuate the same
    migration. Indeed, the migration network may be
    more important to support social and cultural
    opportunism. To enable the migrant to be ready to
    Go with the flow

Asian and South African Perspectives on Networks
  • In Asia networks are described as enabling more
    women to engage in unsupervised migrations
  • In South Africa, the remittance income is
    tangible evidence of the importance of
    maintaining migrant-home linkages
  • In both settings the concept of retaining a home
    base with family at origin may be just as
    important as the network facilitating migration

Queries on networks and international migration
  • How do networks alter the effect of globalization
    on African migration patterns?
  • How are networks of internal and international
    migrants linked through their origin homes and
    communities? Through the labor market?
  • In what way do networks promote onward migrations
    and enable migrants to be opportunists?
  • How do networks facilitate the stabilization and
    integration of internally displaced and refugees?

State is only one influence on migration
Migration as business
  • Adekanye highlights weak national governments as
    part of the reason for high rates of conflict and
    forced migration in Africa
  • In the absence of a strong State, the private
    sector has a freer hand for influencing
  • John Salt has an intriguing theory that
    international migration can be viewed as a
    business, involving both private and public
    sectors, as well as consumers, namely the
  • Big business manipulates the formal sector of
    the dual/segmented labor market model
  • Big business also informally regulates migration
    in the secondary sector of the dual labor market

Queries on Immigration Policies in the African
  • How can the international migration system build
    in not only the impact of the global economy on
    labor migrations but also on informal regulations
    and operations which may act contrary to the
    official immigration policies of the State?
  • How can greater consistency be achieved between
    private and governmental sector influences on
    migrations, particularly international

  • Doug Masseys overview and the perspectives of
    the regional papers in this session provide a
    very useful starting point for our discussions
    this week.
  • I have tried to outline the questions that I
    think will help us all focus on the aspects of
    this meeting that make it unique
  • Partnership that cuts across the usual migration
    and urbanization disciplinary boxes
  • Partnership based in Africa that reaches out and
    embraces global perspectives
  • May we have energetic, passionate, and fruitful
    discussions that advance that partnership on
    behalf of the millions of Africans who move in
    hopes of a better life for themselves and their
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