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Dr. Kimberly KempfLeonard

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... when you eat a diet low in carbohydrates. ... Atkins' diet & Red Meat ... Epidemic of obesity and Type II diabetes; clinical trials: low fat diet fails ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Dr. Kimberly KempfLeonard


1
Methods Sources of Data How, Who What
outcome measures subgrantees should try to know
provide
  • Presented by
  • Dr. Kimberly Kempf-Leonard
  • School of Social Sciences
  • University of Texas at Dallas
  • kleonard_at_utdallas.edu

Performance Measurement Training
2
Why are we doing this?
  • Monitoring Assessment
  • Improve our juvenile justice system
  • Convince other systems they can benefit from what
    weve done
  • Describe… Explain… Evaluate… Predict…

3
How do you know ….something (lets call it X)..?
  • X is common sense or obvious
  • X is a generally agreed upon belief
  • X is based on tradition
  • Experts told me X
  • I learned X through my own experience
  • I observed X myself
  • Could you be wrong?
  • Inaccurate observations
  • Overgeneralization
  • Selective Observations
  • Illogical reasoning
  • Resist change
  • Ego-based commitments
  • too devoted to tradition
  • Uncritical agreement with authority

4
Whats it mean to know somethings true or real?
  • Is it real in eye of beholder?
  • Subjective reality
  • Is it the same reality for everyone?
  • Objective reality
  • Goal Real Information on Outcomes
  • distinguish objective subjective

5
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6
We all know how to lose weight
  • 1980-90s Hypothesis Weight loss a longer life
    are both more likely when you eat a low fat diet.

  • FAT
    CAUSES FAT
  • Fat is bad for you it makes sense
  • pasta, bagels, bran muffins
  • U.S. Food Pyramid
  • 2000s Hypothesis Weight loss and a longer life
    are both more likely when you eat a diet low in
    carbohydrates.

  • CARBS CAUSE FAT
  • Atkins diet Red Meat
  • Endocrinology 101 theory carbs
    insulin/blood sugarmetabolize fatappetite
  • Epidemic of obesity and Type II diabetes
    clinical trials low fat diet fails
  • 2005 Hypothesis There isnt just 1 right
    answer
  • Move More Eat Less X, Y X
    CAUSE FAT

7
Time Data Collection Design
  • Cross-sectional designs
  • Data are collected for a single point in time
  • Quickest
  • Only correlations, cant assess cause/effect
  • Longitudinal designs
  • Add a time dimension with at least 2 data
    collection periods (6-12 months follow-up)
  • Case Study provides rich details
    illustration Difficult to generalize to other
    cases

8
Appropriate Data Collection METHODS? Ask...Watch…
Experience…Use whats there
  • Archival records
  • Documents, Information Systems, Content
  • Field Observations
  • Personal Experiences
  • Surveys
  • Questionnaires, Interviews, Focus Groups

9
For which subjects (youths, programs, services)
should they get data?
  • Good answers
  • The population
  • 2) A sample that represents the population well

10
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11
We can only get .. Is that enough?
  • How the subgroup came to exist (i.e. Selection)
    is critical information
  • Front end select to represent population (No
    CREAMING)
  • Back end minimal attrition bias (No MORTALITY
    problem)
  • lottery, equal chance of being in subgroup
    (probability sampling)
  • Size or number of subjects isnt nearly as
    important
  • Larger samples more breadth less depth
  • Want more if targeted behavior or outcome is
    infrequent

12
Key know traits of subjects present absent
13
What sort of information is recorded? (variables)
  • Output measures of Program Activities
  • hours of training
  • of youth served
  • Average days in program services
  • of services implemented
  • Average days from intake to disposition
  • Outcome measures
  • (Short- Long-term)
  • of youth who reoffend
  • of youth who complete program requirements
  • of youth with improved targeted behaviors

14
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15
Assessing variables
  • Characteristics
  • Multiple categories
  • Mutually exclusive
  • options are exhausted
  • Seldom perfect measures
  • Fail to get true meaning equate measure proxy
  • Random mistakes
  • Systematic mistakes
  • Multiple measures improve confidence
  • 2 eyes are better than 1

16
A variable should try to hit
17
What do we know about unemployment rate….
  • U.S. unemployment rate is measured by dividing
    the number of unemployed individuals by the
    number of people in the civilian labor force
    multiplying by 100
  • Civilian Labor force exclusions military,
    inmates,
    retirees, disabled, voluntarily idle….
  • Unemployed individuals include working at paid
    job (inc. part-time), unpaid work at family
    business, absent from work (paid unpaid) due to
    labor dispute, bad weather, vacations, personal
    reason

18
more confident that crime declined
19
  • What happened to the exit polls in the 2004
    Presidential election?
  • What does it mean for a youth to re-offend or
    recidivate?
  • What does it mean for youth to participate in the
    program?
  • Is there any type of youth not included? Does
    that make a difference?
  • What does if mean if theres a handwritten A in
    the blank for race?

20
Survey Methods
  • Standardized, systematic asking
  • Uniform stimulus so responses can be compared
  • Efficient data collection
  • Price, Speed, Quality Pick Two
  • Ideal for characteristics of a population
  • Individuals attitudes, values, behaviors,
    experiences, opinions, knowledge, circumstances
  • Organizations/Institutions culture, policies,
    finances

21
The heart of surveys is the questionnaire
instrument
Wake up Pay attention theres a quiz coming!
22
Anticipate how they might answer…
  • Interpretation of the Question
  • Retrieve from memory
  • Form judgement
  • Edit response for social desirability (strategic)
  • Trying out (pretesting) survey questions helps
    avoid problems

23
Need to be Clear
  • Avoid extreme loaded positions
  • Should State spend more money on youth services?
  • Should State spend more money to help serious
    juvenile offenders?
  • Limit to a single topic (Double-barreled
    Conditional phrases)
  • Do you think your outlook and performance
    benefited from the curriculum and the teachers?
  • Avoid ambiguity
  • What is the number of youths living in the
    facility most of the time while working, even if
    they have another place to live?
  • Complexity creates confusion
  • Please choose one or more categories that best
    indicate your race.
  • Avoid Presupposition (varied word tenses, forced
    choices)
  • What are your usual practices for studying?
  • Have you stopped attending a program?
  • Are you truant or delinquent?

24
Confidence that we Know! Quality Control
Standards.. because we dont use the same
vocabulary, have the same experiences, or
interpret the same way.
  • Precision Does it achieve the level of
    generality intended?
  • Validity Is it accurate?
  • Does it capture reality of
    whats intended?
  • Reliability Do repeated tries yield the same
    result?
  • Assess comparisons cross-checks
  • Do both eyes see it the same way?
  • Use established measures
  • data collection instruments
  • cross-check data collectors
  • test-retest method (2 different times)
  • split-half method (1/2 one kind ½ another)

25
Final advice Dont worry!
  • a lot of examples exist already that can be
    easily adapted
  • There are a lot of college professors and
    graduate students in every state just itching to
    help you (and we work cheap)
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