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Global Warming and Science

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Title: Global Warming and Science


1
Global Warmingand Science
  • March 4, 2008
  • Dr. Nicholas Drapela
  • Department of Chemistry,
  • Oregon State University

2
  • http//www.youtube.com/watch?vgJxwl69mrEM

3
Disclaimer Why this talk?
  • A bit about me
  • B.S., Science Education, Chemistry and Physics
  • Ph.D., Chemistry, Organic Natural Product
    Synthesis
  • Not a Republican
  • Own no stocks in oil companies (or any other
    companies for that matter)
  • Disagree strongly w/ Bush administration
  • Love the outdoors and the environment
  • Love polar bears and clean air and water
  • The truth has no agenda
  • The truth is not dependent on consensus, real or
    artificial

4
Science The Focus
  • This talk focuses on the science behind Global
    Warming
  • It is intended for general audiences
  • Politics, ecology, sociology, and economics are
    avoided if possible
  • See for yourself
  • Check this ?

5
For a Free Copy of these slides
  • Send an email to me at
  • nick.drapela_at_orst.edu
  • Put GWAS in the Subject line

6
Part 1
  • What is Global Warming?

7
Heat Can Get Trapped
8
(No Transcript)
9
http//www.ems.psu.edu/fraser/Bad/BadGreenhouse.h
tml
10
What Makes Up This Greenhouse?
  • Gases in our atmosphere which absorb IR waves and
    radiate some of the heat back toward the earth
  • Methane
  • Nitrous oxide
  • Chlorofluorocarbons
  • Carbon dioxide (CO2)

11
Global Warming Doctrine
  • Modern society burns fossil fuels such as
  • Gasoline, natural gas, coal
  • All of these give off CO2 as they burn
  • The added CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing the
    greenhouse effect on the earth
  • This is increasing the temperature of the earth
    beyond its normal range
  • Soon, this will result in disastrous consequences
    for life on earth
  • The only way to avoid this is to reduce world CO2
    emissions

12
Predictions From Global Warming
  • Rising sea levels
  • Existential threat to low-lying areas such as
    Venice, San Francisco, the Netherlands, and
    Florida
  • Melting of glaciers and ice caps

http//www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2005/2005-01-28
-10.asp
13
Predictions From Global Warming
  • Agriculture losses
  • Water shortages
  • Massive drought
  • Food shortages

http//www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2005/2005-01-28
-10.asp
14
Predictions From Global Warming
  • Loss of habitat for arctic wildlife
  • Inuit children unable to continue in their culture

http//www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2005/2005-01-28
-10.asp
15
Predictions From Global Warming
  • Severe loss of marine life
  • Extinction of polar bears
  • Widespread adverse health effects

http//climate-change.suite101.com/article.cfm/glo
bal_warming_predictions
http//www.worldwildlife.org/climate/science/arcti
cReport.cfm
16
Predictions From Global Warming
  • Severe storms
  • Large-scale energy disruptions
  • The world is running out of time

http//climate-change.suite101.com/article.cfm/glo
bal_warming_predictions
17
Global Warming in the Media
18
  • An increasing body of observations gives a
    collective picture of a warming world and other
    changes in the climate system.
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
    2001

19
Part 2
  • None of this is true

20
Preview
  • There is no factual evidence to show that the
    earth is now without question above its normal,
    historical temperature range.
  • There is no factual evidence to show that it soon
    will be, or ever will be.
  • Even if it were, CO2 could not be causing it.

21
Fact 1
  • There is indeed a greenhouse effect on the earth
    and that is good
  • If there were not, the earths temperature would
    drop by roughly 60F, ending life as we know it
    on earth

22
Fact 2
  • Global Warming theory is based on models, not on
    evidence
  • These computer models are made up by people, and
    are limited by
  • the programmer
  • our scientific knowledge
  • the ethics of the people who invent them

http//www.physorg.com/news593.html
23
Hard Data or Prediction?
  • Graphs such as this one are based on
    extrapolations from weather models, not data
  • Check this ?

http//www.americanthinker.com/2007/09/one_more_re
ason_to_distrust_gl.html
24
The Famous Hockey Stick
  • The only irregular part of the graph is the
    model, not the data

McIntyre, Stephen Ross McKitrick, Geophysical
Research Letters 2005, 2, 32
25
Fact 3
  • These models have already shown to be incorrect
  • Ex. Model prediction Troposphere warming
  • Actual fact No significant troposphere warming
    is occurring

http//www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page/Nation
/archive/200205/NAT20020514b.html
26
Hurricanes
  • Ex. model prediction 2006 worst hurricane year
    on record
  • Actual fact 2006, 2007 two of the calmest
    hurricane seasons in decades
  • Check this ?
  • Many other model failures exist

http//edition.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/11/30/hurrican
es/index.html
http//www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/2005-1
1-30-hurricane-cycle_x.htm
27
Global Cooling
  • In 1970, scientists agreed by consensus that the
    earth was headed for catastrophic global cooling

(Scientists) are almost unanimous in the view
that the (cooling) trend will reduce agricultural
productivity for the rest of the centurythe
resulting famines could be catastrophic." --News
week, 1975
28
Global Cooling Was Certain
http//www.gerrycharlottephelps.com/2006/06/the_co
oling_wor.html
29
  • If 50 million people say a stupid thing, it is
    still a stupid thing.
  • Anatole France (1844-1924)

30
Past Predictions
  • In ten years all important animal life in the
    sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline
    will have to be evacuated because of the stench
    of dead fish.
  • Paul Ehrlich, Center for Conservation Biology,
    Stanford University
  • Predicted in 1970

31
Fact 4
  • Global warming predictions commonly change to fit
    whatever data is most recently discovered
  • More rain, then less rain
  • Ice cap melting, then ice cap growing
  • Drought, then flooding
  • No piece of information can be used to disprove
    the doctrine
  • Check this ?

http//www.livescience.com/environment/070531_gw_r
ainfall.html
32
Fact 5
  • Weather records show that increased human CO2
    emissions were linked to decreased earth
    temperatures from 1940-1980

33
Fact 6
  • The amount of CO2 released and absorbed by oceans
    each year dwarfs the amount emitted by humans
  • 93 of all CO2 in the earth and its atmosphere is
    contained in the ocean

http//www.waterencyclopedia.com/Bi-Ca/Carbon-Diox
ide-in-the-Ocean-and-Atmosphere.html
34
Fact 7
  • When oceans warm, they release CO2
  • This is why CO2 has increased and decreased
    over time

35
Inconveniently Separated
  • Temperature/CO2 correlation in ice core records
    from An Inconvenient Truth
  • Why are the graphs separated?

36
CO2 Levels Follow Temp Changes
  • Note on close inspection that CO2 lags behind
    temperature, not the reverse
  • (Also note that CO2 levels have been naturally
    varying for eons w/o human fossil fuel emissions)

37
Fact 8
  • The most abundant greenhouse gas in the
    atmosphere, by far,is water vapor
  • 95 of heat trapped in the troposphere is due to
    water vapor

http//www.geyserlandobservatory.org/atmosphere/at
mosphere.html
http//www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/enviro
nment/appd_d.html
38
IR Absorptions
  • Water vapor absorbs energy in the same regions of
    the infrared as CO2

39
Greenhouse Efficiency of Water
  • Besides being more abundant, water is three times
    as efficient at absorbing infrared energy as CO2

40
Fact 9
  • Other planets in our solar system are warming as
    well
  • Numerous studies are showing that Mars, Jupiter,
    Neptune, and the moon Triton are all warming

http//www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2006-05
-04-jupiter-jr-spot_x.htm?POETECISVA
http//www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028764
.shtml
http//www.scienceagogo.com/news/19980526052143dat
a_trunc_sys.shtml
http//web.mit.edu/newsoffice/1998/triton.html
http//motls.blogspot.com/2006/05/global-warming-o
n-jupiter.html
41
Martian Icecaps
  • The icecaps on Mars are melting
  • If CO2 is the culprit, why is Mars also warming?

http//news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/07
0228-mars-warming.html
42
Martian Warming
  • "Mars has global warming, but without a
    greenhouse and without the participation of
    Martians.
  • Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov
  • Director, Space Research Laboratory
  • Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory
  • Russian Academy of Science

http//www.nationalpost.com/story.html?idedae9952
-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723k0
43
Fact 10
  • In the last 4 months, almost all lost polar ice
    has returned
  • This fact is reported by the National Oceanic and
    Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

http//www.newsmax.com/newsfront/global_warming_or
_cooling/2008/02/19/73798.html
44
Growing Ice Caps
  • The ice between Canada and southwestern
    Greenland has reached its highest level in 15
    years.
  • Meteorological Institute of Denmark, 2008
  • Levels of Antarctic ice are also increasedone
    third higher than normal for this time of year

http//newsbusters.org/blogs/lynn-davidson/2008/02
/16/western-greenland-ice-growing-still-global-war
ming
45
Polar Bear Party
  • Despite popular media portrayal, polar bear
    numbers are increasing
  • Canadian government survey Polar bear
    population has increased 250 in last 20 years
  • The indigenous Inuit people report the same

http//www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id1ea
8233f-14da-4a44-b839-b71a9e5df868
46
Fact 11
  • When compared with larger-timeframe historical
    temperatures, current earth temperatures are in
    the normal range

47
Fact 12
  • Despite strenuous attempts to claim consensus and
    the end of debate, Global Warming theory is far
    from accepted by all scientists
  • 2008 International Conference on Climate Change,
    New York
  • March 2-4, 2008
  • Check this ?

48
Non-Believers
  • John Coleman, Founder of the Weather Channel
  • Dr. Patrick Moore, Founder of Greenpeace
  • Prof. Richard Lindzen, MIT Meteorology and
    climate expert
  • Michael Crichton, Author

http//icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/comments_a
bout_global_warming/
http//www.basinelectric.com/NewsCenter/News/Featu
redArticles/Greenpeace_founder_d.html
http//physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/26945
http//www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId16260
49
Weather Channel Founder
  • It is the greatest scam in history. I am
    amazed, appalled, and highly offended by it.
    Global Warming it is a scam.
  • John Coleman

50
MIT Meteorologist
  • (The IPCC) has decided that they have to
    convince other people that since no scientist
    disagrees you shouldnt disagree either.
    Whenever you hear that in science, its pure
    propaganda.
  • Prof. Richard Lindzen

51
Fact 13
  • Lay people can make valid observations
  • Facts surround us
  • Deep freeze over US and southern Asia set records
    the past few Winters
  • Much of citrus crop in California and Florida was
    destroyed by ice
  • Record lows have been observed world-wide in the
    last few years

http//gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/02/brrrr-26
0-dead-in-south-asia-pakistan.html
http//www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/html/news/April7thwint
erwx.html
http//www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/02/11/minnesota
.cold.ap/
52
Part 3
  • Are you serious?

53
Social Reaction
  • Cognitive dissonance
  • Stages of reaction
  • 1. Anger
  • 2. Bigotry
  • 3. Resentment
  • 4. Frustration
  • 5. Re-evaluation
  • 6. Awakening
  • 7. Activism

54
Concluding Points
  • 1. No cause is served well by misinformation
  • 2. Be an independent thinker
  • 3. Do not be discouraged! YOU can make a
    difference!
  • There are many worthy causes. Choose one,
    research it, and take it up, and make a real
    difference

55
Possible Further Talks
  • Global Warming and Social Engineering
  • Global Warming An Alternate Theory

56
Thank You
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