The U.S. and Washington Area Economy At MidYear and Outlook to 2005

1
The U.S. and Washington Area EconomyAt
Mid-Year and Outlook to 2005
NVTC CFO Series
John McClain, AICPSenior Fellow and Deputy
Director, Center for Regional Analysis George
Mason University

September 16, 2004
2
2004 Hot TopicsElection YearDecision Time
RE Major League Baseball Coming to Region?


3
Baseball Market ComparisonsTotal Jobs in 2004
Millions
4
Baseball Market ComparisonsJobs Change 1999 -
2004
Thousands
5
The National Economy

6
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
4.5 3.7 0.5 2.2
3.0
Per Cent

2.8
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2004
7
Consumer Confidence
Peak Jul 2000
Present Situation
100
Expectations
8
Annual Rate of Change in Jobs (Establishment
Survey)USA
Thru Aug 2004
THOUSANDS
Aug 1.69 M
Feb 04
Bottom 2.03 M Feb 02
9
Annual Rate of Change in Employed (HH Survey) USA
Thru Aug 2004
THOUSANDS
Starting growing In Aug 2002
Aug 2.09 M
Bottom 2.00 M Jan 02
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U.S. Leading IndexMonthly Over-the-Year Percent
Changes

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U.S. Coincident IndexMonthly Over-the-Year
Percent Changes

12
The Regional Picture

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Annual Rate of Job ChangeWashington PMSA
THOUSANDS
14
1990 - 2003 Share of Job Growth By Sector U.S.
vs PMSA

NA
NA
15
Technology Subsectors as Percent of Total
Employment 2003Washington PMSA v U.S.

16
Washington PMSA as Percent of U.S. - 2003

2.2 All Jobs
17
Jobs in Computer Systems Design and Related
Services2003
Thousands
18
Jobs in Management, Scientific and Technical
Consulting Services2003
Thousands
NA
NA
NA
19
Jobs in Scientific Research and Development
Services2003
Thousands
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
20
Jobs in Manufacturing 2003
Thousands
21
July 03 July 04 Job Change By Sector - PMSA
(000s)
Total 80,600
(Ranked by Size of Sector)
22
Metro Comparisons Job Change Last Five
Years(Jul 99 Jul 04)
Thousands
23
Top Job MarketsJob Change July 2003 - July
2004(Monthly Over-the Year Data)
Thousands
Washington 80,600
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Top Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate
July 2004
Percentage
U.S. 5.7
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The Washington Regional Economy is Outperforming
Because

• The Federal Government Moderates National
  Business Cycles 32 of Regional Economy
• Federal Government Support of the Tech Sector
  Over 40 of Sales
• Federal Government is the Current Economic
  Stimulus via Procurement 16.9 Increase in FY
  2003

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Total Federal and Technology-Intensive
Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, 1982 -
2003
Billions
Technology (60.9)
Total Federal Procurement Spending In Washington
MSA 1982-2003 415 B
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Procurement from Washington Companies by Type,
2003
BILLIONS
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Procurement from Washington Companies by
Sub-state Region 2003
BILLIONS
29
Top Ten Federal Contractors - 2003

• SAIC 1,530 M
• CSC 971
• Booz Allen 920
• Northrup Grumman 897
• Lockheed Martin 821
• EDS 803
• IBM 678
• NCS Pearson 630
• Unisys 615
• Accenture 567

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Washington Area Leading IndexMonthly
Over-the-Year Percent Changes

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Washington Area Coincident IndexMonthly
Over-the-Year Percent Changes

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The Regional Outlook

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Washington Area Core Industries Outlook
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Fig. 29 Employment Change by Substate Region
(000s)
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