pre5: The same as pre4, except with T574 compatible highres snow analysis pre4: pre2, except with Ne

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pre5 The same as pre4, except with T574
compatible high-res snow analysispre4 pre2,
except with New Radiation Package SW routine
from ncep0 to RRTM2 IAER001 (tropospheric LW)
to IAER111, adding stratospheric aerosol SW and
LW and tropospheric aerosol LW aerosol SW
single scattering albedo from 0.90 in the
operation to 0.99 changing SW aerosol asymmetry
factor.new aerosol climatology SW cloud overlap
from random to maximum-random overlap.
Tuned/reduced orographic GWD and mountain block.
New dependence of direct-beam surface albedo on
solar zenith angle over snow free land sfc (Yang
et al., 2008 JAMC). T574 high-res snow analysis
in Jan2009, T382 snow analysis after 31Jan2009.
Updated RELOCATESH pre2a pre2, with
tuned/reduced orographic GWD and mountain
blocking pre2 pre1, except running at T574L64
week-one and T382L64 week-2 forecasts. pre1
(aka pru12b) baseline parallel (T382L64),
differences from operational GFSoptions to run
with new dynamics and physics packages. Code
unification between GFS and GEFS, including
stochastic perturbation. Upgrade ESMF to version
3.1.0rp2, Change of output cloud definition,
including boundary-layer cloud in low cloud.
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Higher resolution
Higher resolution reduced drag
Higher resolution by itself Changes time-mean
flow Reduced drag removes change To time-mean
flow
Higher resolutionreduced dragphysics
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Higher resolution Reduces wind Over Himalayas
Reducing drag Restores wind Over Himalayas
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Reducing drag plus higher resolution Produce
stronger winds over Himalayas Than control Too
much reduction??
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Higher resolution
Higher resolution reduced dragphysics
Higher resolution reduced drag
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New physics reduces wind error In tropical upper
troposphere Reduced drag reduces error In winter
stratosphere, not in Winter troposphere
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Differences not Statistically signficant
Differences not Statistically signficant
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Jan. 27-March 17, 2009 Hgt A C 1000 NH pre5
significantly worse than gfs day 6,significantly
better day 11 SH pre5 significantly
better than gfs days 2,3 500 NH
differences not statistically signficant
SH differences not statistically
significant RMSE hgt 1000 NH pre5 significantly
worse than gfs days 1, 2, 6 SH pre5
significantly better days 1-3, signficantly worse
day 15 500 NH pre5
significantly worse days 1,3 SH
pre5 significantly better days 1-3 50
NH pre5 significantly worse than gfs day 3, 4
SH significantly better than gfs days
7-16 RMSVWE 1000 NH pre5 significantly worse than
gfs days 1-3, 5, 6 SH pre5
significantly worse day 1, significantly better
day 3 200 NH pre5 significantly better than
gfs days 3,4 SH pre5 significantly
better than gfs days 2-4 50 NH pre5
significantly worse than gfs day 1
SH pre5 significantly better than gfs days 5,6
Out of 256 forecast lengths, 27 significantly
better, 16 significantly worse. By chance, should
have 6 better, 6 worse NH 3 better, 14 worse SH
24 better, 2 worse Day 1 tends to be worse, 200
winds improved
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Jan. 27-March 17, 2009 RMSVWE 1000 Tropics
pre5 significantly better than gfs days 2-16
850 Tropics pre5 significantly
better than gfs days 2-12, 15
700 Tropics pre5 significantly better than gfs
days 1-13, 15, 16 500 Tropics pre5
significantly better than gfs days 1-11 WOW
200 Tropics pre5 significantly worse than gfs
day 1 100 Tropics pre5 significantly
better than gfs days 2-11 50 Tropics
pre5 significantly better than gfs days 2-13 Out
of 112 forecast lengths, 75 better, 1 worse By
chance would expect 3 better, 3 worse Tropics
and Southern Hemisphere signficantly improved 200
winds significantly improved in extratropics,
not tropics Northern Hemisphere worse
WOW
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WOW
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Slightly worse ?
More intense bullseyes?
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Pre5 better
wow
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Pre5 more precip over tropical continents less
over tropical oceans
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July 20 Oct. 29, 2008 Hgt AC 500 N pre4
significantly better than prd09q1o day 13
S pre4 significantly better than prd09q1o days
3-5 1000 N pre4 significantly better
than prd09q1o day 13 S pre4 significantly
better than prd09q1o day 3-5, 8 RMSE hgt 1000 N
pre4 significantly worse than prd09q1o days 9,
10 S pre4 significantly better than
prd09q1o days 3, 5 500 N pre4
significantly worse than prd0910 days 9, 10
S pre4 significantly better days 4, 5
50 N pre4 significantly better than prd09q1o
days 4-16 S pre4 significantly better
than prd09q1o days 4, 5 RMSVWE 1000 N pre4
significantly worse than prd09q1o days 1, 8-11,
14, 15 S pre4 significantly worse
day1, significantly better day 5 200 N
pre4 significantly better than prd09q1o days
1-7 200 S pre4 significantly better than
prd09q1o days 2-6, 8 50 N pre4
significantly worse day1, significantly better
days 3-7 50 S pre4 significantly worse
days 1, 2, significantly better days 5, 8 Out of
256 forecast lengths, 49 significantly improved,
14 worse By change would expect 6 improved, 6
worse Northern Hemisphere 27 better, 11
worse Southern Hemisphere 22 better, 2
worse Northern Hemisphere improvement in 200
winds, stratosphere
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July 20 Oct. 29, 2008
WOW RMSVWE 1000 Tr pre4 significantly better
days 2-14 850 Tr pre4 significantly worse
day 1, significantly better days 3-12, 14
700 Tr pre4 significantly better days 2-15
500 Tr pre4 significantly better days 1-9
200 Tr pre4 significantly worse days 1,11,12,
significantly better days 2,4 100 Tr pre4
significantly better days 1-16 50 Tr pre4
significantly better days 2-16 Out of 112
forecast lengths, 80 significantly improved, 4
worse By chance , would expect 3 improved, 3
worse Improvement not evident at day 1 and at
200 hPa
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WOW
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WOW
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Pre4 slightly higher Skill, but more bias
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Pre5 improves Southern Hemisphere both periods
degrades Northern Hemisphere somewhat in
winter improves tropics dramatically
improves hurricane tracks, intensity in
Atlantic improves CONUS precipitation,
but higher bias, more intense bulleyes?
forecasts better fit to rawindsondes Day 1
forecasts may be slightly worse 200hPa winds
better in extratropics, worse in tropics 1000 hPa
winds may be worse in extratropics GWD and or
mountain blocking may be too weak Further
tuning should be examined at some stage

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