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Chemical and Radiological Weapons

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But: LD50 is Only a Useful Simplification ... The Dose-Response Function. Biology ... Long Term Risk. Spread Over 1km2: 140 REMs/yr. Spread Over 10km2: 14 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Chemical and Radiological Weapons


1
WMD Terrorism PP 190-15 / 290-15
Lecture 7 Chemical and Radiological
Weapons
Stephen M. Maurer Goldman School of Public Policy
Rm. 302 Boalt Law School Rm. 356 smaurer_at_berkeley.
edu
2
Introduction
The Importance of General Models WMD is Mostly
About Poisons! C, B, R and some N This
lecture C R. A Strong Poisons
Approach Preamble Physics of Airborne Delivery
Biology of Generic Poisons Chemical
Poisons Radiological Poisons Engineering
Details
3
Introduction
Social and Economic Aspects Barriers to
Entry Policy Levers Civil Defense,
Remediation, Export Controls, Detectors, Health
Surveillance, etc.
4
Physics of Airborne Delivery
5
Point Release Physics A Graph of Integrated
Exposure X-axis suppression Y-axis
suppression Z-axis suppression Line Laydowns
Atmospheric Inversions, etc.
6
Benchmark Chemical Weapons
Ypres (1915) 160 tons of chlorine Lethal area
4 x 1.5 miles An industrial scale
project Folklore 1 efficiency
7
Biology of Poisons (In General)
8
Biology
LD50 The dose makes the poison See also LD5,
ID50, LC50 etc. Units m/M, V/v Bookkeeping
Issues Assumes 70 kg man, 15 liters/m, 10
minutes exposure.
9
Biology
But LD50 is Only a Useful Simplification
The Dose-Response Function
10
Biology
Fatalities
Dose
LD50
Dose Response Curves
11
Biology
Fatalities
Dose
LD50
Dose Response Curves
12
B
Biology
Fatalities
A
Dose
LD50
When Does it Pay to Improve a Poison?
13
Biology
Fatalities
C
Dose
LD50
When Does it Pay to Improve a Poison?
14
Chemical Poisons
15
Chemical Weapons
Beyond Chlorine Improved Poisons But
Manufacturing, Safety, and Storage Problems.
16
Chemical Weapons
Acute Exposures
Weapon LC50 Improvement Blister
Agents Chlorine 655 ppm -- Mustard 23
ppm 28.5 Lewisite 17 ppm 38.5 Choking
Agents Phosgene 79 ppm 8.3
17
Chemical Weapons
Acute Exposures
Weapon LC50 Improvement Nerve
Agents Sarin 1.2 ppm 545.8 Soman 0.9
ppm 727.8 Tabun 2.0 ppm 327.5 VX 0.3 ppm
2,183.3
18
Chemical Weapons
Chronic Exposure Chlorine vs. Nerve Agent vs.
Mustard Engineered Contaminants Decontamination
Technologies
19
Chemical Weapons
Benchmark Weapon Sarin Point Spills 400 700
ft. (Initial) 0.5 1.2 miles (daytime) 2.1
miles 5.5 miles (nighttime) Example
Destroying Paris 700 tons A huge manufacturing
delivery challenge!
20
Chemical Weapons
Better Poisons? Small molecules Edgewood
Arsenal, Porton Down, Nazi Germany Commercial
Research Do Terrorists Face Looser constraints?
Low temperatures, high humidity, available
countermeasures Breakthrough technologies
21
Chemical Weapons
Toxic Industrial Chemicals Using existing
commercial infrastructure Need 50 times more -
Security problem? Delivery 50 times harder.
22
Chemical Weapons
In Situ Weapons 66,000 Blast or Chemical
Hazards Beyond 25 Miles Chemical Plants -
108/15,000 sites Mostly 90 ton chlorine rail
cars Bhopal Disaster (1984) Union Carbide
pesticide plant 40 tons of methyl
isocynate 3,000 casualties
Bhopal Disaster, Wikipedia, available at
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhopal_disaster
23
Radiological Poisons
24
Radiological Weapons
Curies (Decays) RADs (Deposited Energy) 1 Gray
100 RADs REMs Sieverts (Biology) Roentgen
Equivalent Man 1 Sievert 100 REMs.
25
Radiological Weapons
Gammas
26
Radiological Weapons
Gammas - Prompt Effects (Mostly Hiroshima
Data) 75 300 Rads LD5 to LD10. 300 530
Rads LD10 to LD50. 530 800 Rads LD50 to
LD90. 800 3000 Rads LD90 to LD100.
Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute,
Medical Management of Radiological Casualties
(1999), available at http//www.afrri.usuhs.mil/ww
w/outreach/pdf/radiologicalhandbooksp99-2.pdf.
27
Radiological Weapons
Gammas - Long Term Effects Expected Excess
Cancers
Late (stochastic) effects follow a linear or
linear quadratic relationship
Dose (in REMs) 2,400 Starts 10 years
out Assumes 30 year lifespan. Additional,
non-fatal cancers.

100
80
60
Cancer Induction Rate
40
20
2400
rem
Courtesy Christine Hartmann-Siantar, LLNL
28
Radiological Weapons
Naively, 1 REM 4 additional deaths per 5000
exposed. Benchmarks 0.6 REM/year
Denver 0.5 REM/year Radiation Workers
(NRC) 0.1 REM/year General public (NRC)
29
Radiological Weapons
Ottawa U International Center For Low-Dose
Radiation Research (Jan. 2002)
30
Radiological Weapons
Alphas and Betas
31
Candidate Materials
32
Candidate Materials
33
Candidate Materials
Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute,
Medical Management of Radiological Casualties
(1999), available at http//www.afrri.usuhs.mil/ww
w/outreach/pdf/radiologicalhandbooksp99-2.pdf.
34
Radiological Weapons
Benchmark Weapons
35
Radiological Weapons
Radiological Dispersal Devices RDDs, Dirty
bombs. Case 1 Sophisticated RDDs
Plutonium Joseph Hamilton
Will Grover, All The Easy Experiments,
Berkeley Science Review 541-45 http//sciencerev
iew.berkeley.edu/articles.php?issue9articleplut
onium
36
Radiological Weapons
Gamma Sources Half-Life
Ci/g Form 60Co Gamma knife, sterilization, 5.3
years 1,100 Metal industrial imaging,
food sterilization, fruit fly sterilization, X-R
ay diagnosis, thickness gauges, seed spice
sterilization. (0.01 1,000
Ci/unit) 252Cf High energy physics 2.6
years 540 Powder 137Cs Gamma knife,
sterilization, 30 years 88 Soluble needle and
seed implants, powder density and moisture
gauges, thickness gauges, seed and spice
sterilization
37
Radiological Weapons
Alpha Sources Half-Life
Ci/g Form 241Am Smoke detectors, moisture 430
years 3.5 Powder thickness gauges. 252Cf
Physics research 2.6 years 3.5 Powder 210Po Neu
tron sources 140 days 4500 238Pu Weapons,
electricity, 88 years 17 Powder pacemakers. 226
Ra Medical needle, seed implants 1600 1 Various
38
Radiological Weapons
Beta Sources Half-Life
Ci/g Form 90Sr RTGs 29 years
140 Various Industrial Sources Commonly Exceed
10,000 Ci. Soviet Lighthouses 30-300,000
Ci. 1,000 Units
39
Radiological Weapons
Making Materials? Cobalt-60, Polonium-210,
Plutonium-238 Fundamental limits? More
attractive weapons?
40
Radiological Weapons
Case 2 Plausible RDDs Goiania Accident 1400
Curies of 137Cs 19g from original 28g
source. No Immediate Fatalities Long Term
Risk Spread Over 1km2 140 REMs/yr. Spread Over
10km2 14 REMs/yr.
Richard Muller, The Dirty Bomb
Distraction, Technology Review http//muller.lbl.g
ov/TRessays/29-Dirty_Bombs.htm
41
Radiological Weapons
1 REM
0.1 REM
0.01 REM
Brooke Buddemeier, Misuse of Radioactive
Material First Responder Considerations (2003),
http//www-cms.llnl.gov/seaborginstitute/training/
radiological_response_2.pdf
42
Radiological Weapons
Long Term Risk Spread Over 1km2 140
REMs/yr. Spread Over 10km2 14
REMs/yr. Assume Population 1,000 /km2 ? 60
Excess deaths
Richard Muller, The Dirty Bomb
Distraction, Technology Review http//muller.lbl.g
ov/TRessays/29-Dirty_Bombs.htm
43
Radiological Weapons
For comparison Fallon Cancer Cluster, 1 Excess
death per 10,000 exposed. An implicit
cost-benefit calculation Clean-up vs. prevention
44
Radiological Weapons
Case 3 In Situ Weapons 138 Commercial
Research Reactors in US Typical Reactor 3 x
1011 Ci 20 40 times larger than 10 KT
Bomb Chernobyl 3 x 107 Ci with T1/2 gt 20 hours
45
In Situ Weapons Nuclear Reactors
I. Helfand et al., The US and Nuclear Terrorism
Still Dangerously Unprepared, (Physicians for
Social Responsibility 2006), available at
http//www.psr.org/site/DocServer/PSR_NuclearTerr_
rpt_full.pdf?docID781
46
Engineering Details
47
Manufacturing Cost
Lab Scale 1-30 kg. per batch Several
hundred Kg? Accident risk Pilot Scale
100-1000 kg per batch. Full Scale German
Tabun Plant 106 kg/month. 36m today 650
workers
48
Manufacturing Cost
Cost of Pilot Batch Cost of Lab Batch

n
Pilot Process Yield Lab Process Yield
Pilot Quantity Lab Quantity
X
n 0.6
49
Manufacturing Feasibility
US Army Aum Shinrikyo A 10 Million
Plant Goals 2 tons/day, 70 ton arsenal, area
targets. Actual 2 20 kg./attack, large point
targets. Auditorium (Feb. 1994), Office
Building (June 1994),Subway (March 2005).
50
Manufacturing New Technology?
Breakout Technologies Microreactors 10
kg./hour, 6 tons per month. Numbering
Up Fewer accidents, less waste?
Tuan H. Nguyen, Microchallenges of Chemical
Weapons Proliferation, Science 3901021 (2005),
available at http//www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint
/309/5737/1021.pdf.
51
Manufacturing Other Issues

Safety England 1918 6 months/1100 workers
1400 illnesses,160 accidents. 7
killed. Germany (1930s) 100 chronic
illness 1/year fatal accidents. Aum
(1990s) 100 chronic illness Multiple
releases to environment Do suicide bombers
care? A security risk.
52
Storage and Transport
Case 1 Gammas Shielding Problem Transportation
and Detection
53
Storage and Transport
54
Storage and Transport
55
Delivery
The Challenge Delivering Poison to The Deep
Lungs gt 10 µm 100 excluded gt 5 µm
95 excluded lt 1 µm Fail to settle
56
Delivery
Solutions Making Aerosols Examples Lewisite,
mustard, nerve agents Aums Heated Vapor
Method How to Test? Dust Generators Impregna
ted dusts. Alternatives Bombs, fomites,
covert contamination, plastic bags, etc.,
etc. (Water reservoirs dont work)
57
Delivery
Alpha Beta Emitters Creating
Powders Milling Chemical Dissolution Fire Exp
losion
58
Policy Levers
59
Policy Levers
Civil Defense Awareness Unusual Activity Odor
Chlorine, Mustard, Phosgene, Soman Not
Lewisite, Sarin, Tabun, VX Astute
Clinicians Immediate Lewisite, Chlorine,
Phosgene 30s 2m Sarin, Soman, Tabun,
VX 12-24 hours Mustard Military vs. Civilian
Detectors
60
Policy Levers
Civil Defense Sheltering in Place Gas
Masks Military efficacy Israel, Britain Duct
Tape? Remediation Reducing the payoff
61
Policy Levers
Decontamination 24 hour process Evacuation Econo
mic damages Film badges metered exposure
62
Policy Levers
Surveillance Precursor Materials vs. Dual
Use Forensics
63
Lecture 7 Discussion
64
Questions?
65
Todays Puzzle Should We Limit Pesticide RD?
66
Syllabus http//gspp.berkeley.edu/iths/WMD20Ter
rorism/Syllabus.pdf S. Maurer (ed.) WMD
Terrorism MIT Press 2009. Available on Amazon
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