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Key Tourism Trends

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Trends in inbound and outbound tourism. The UK's ... Fly in on Ryanair, stay in a Hilton, grab lunch in McDonalds: no neat segments. The future (1) ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Key Tourism Trends


1
Key Tourism Trends
  • David EdwardsTourism Trends Manager
  • May 2008

2
Trends in inbound and outbound tourism
3
The UKs International Tourism Balance of Payments
4
UKs global market share of international tourism
5
Inbound visitor spend per visit
6
Inbound markets contrasting trends 2000-2007 (1)
1.4 million more visits from Spain 1.1 million
more visits from Poland 900,000 more visits from
Ireland 700,000 more visits from Germany 700,000
more visits from Italy
7
Inbound markets contrasting trends 2000-2007 (2)
346,000 fewer visitors from USA 225,000 fewer
visitors from Japan 66,000 fewer visitors from
Israel 52,000 fewer visitors from Greece 34,000
fewer visitors from Hong Kong
8
Americans are they still travelling?
9
Inbound market shares (1)
10
Inbound market shares (2)
11
Global picture share of international arrivals
in 2007
4 in 5 are intra-Europe trips
9 in 10 are intra-AP trips
12
Inbound to Europe trends and forecasts
13
Length of stay
43 inbound visits are 1-3 nights
14
Where visitors go
  • 1996 32 of overnight domestic trips were to a
    large city, 2007 39
  • 1996 25 of overnight domestic trips were to a
    seaside, 2007 21
  • London continues to dominate inbound tourism
    half of spend in 2007
  • The South West continues to dominate overnight
    domestic tourism 18 of spend in 2007

15
Nations and regions inbound shares
16
Nations and regions - domestic overnight shares
17
Getting to (and from) Britain
  • Low-cost carriers increase access to regions from
    Europe, and vice-versa
  • No new runways in South East not so in France,
    Holland and Germany
  • Ferries losing market share to low-cost flights
    and the Channel Tunnel
  • Getting a visa to visit the UK has got more
    expensive and more onerous
  • 25 Schengen members by end 2008

18
Over the past few years...
  • UK population is more diverse (550,000 A12
    nationals live in the UK)
  • More UK residents own a second home abroad
    (around 250,000)
  • More Brits live permanently abroad (IPPR estimate
    is 5.6 million)
  • More foreign students study at UK universities
    (49,000 entered in 2007)
  • More UK based multi-nationals
  • Competition for holiday visitors is more intense
    (Krakow, Dubai, Marrakech)

19
Leading to a shift in the purpose mix of
inbound trips
19792007
20
Visiting Friends and Relatives trips do they
really matter?
  • 22 of inbound spend in 2007 (137 real growth
    since 1979 17 holiday growth)
  • Regional spread 60 of VFR spend is outside
    London, 40 for holiday visits
  • Seasonality 49 of VFR visits between October
    and March, 38 of holiday visits
  • 1.8m visits to museums/galleries, 2.6m visits to
    a castle, church or historic house
  • 8 million nights in paid accommodation
  • Hosts spend too!

21
Business Tourism
  • A trading nation (business visits from 137
    markets in 2007)
  • 29 of inbound spend (111 since 79)
  • Trade Fairs/Exhibitions only 4 of business
    spend, attending Conference or Large Meeting
    18 of spend
  • But spend 200 more per visit than other
    business visitors
  • Vital for delivering profitable hotel occupancy
    and event revenue

22
Socio-demographic drivers
  • Older age groups more important in relative terms
    (12 inbound visits were by the over 55s in 1993,
    17 in 2007)
  • British ex-pats account for one-in-eight inbound
    visits (626,000 from Spain alone)
  • Domestic overnight tourism highly dependent on
    higher social grades (ABs account for 39 of
    spend but 20 of population, DEs 14 spend, 31
    population)
  • The family unit is evolving

23
Internet
  • Enabled the low-cost carrier revolution
  • More price transparency / competition
  • Empowered tourists to share opinions with the
    world no hiding place for those offering poor
    quality
  • Provides incomparable route to market for
    tourism businesses big or small
  • Only 5 of Indians have access, but that is 60
    million people

24
Accommodation
  • England 1.1 milllion bedspaces in 31,000
    serviced accommodation establishments
  • 1.3 million bedspaces in 26,000 non-serviced
    establishments
  • On average 47 of available bedspaces are filled
    in serviced accommodation
  • Owners in it for the lifestyle, not profit
  • Planning rules and old stock hinder
    productivity
  • The rise of the budget chain

25
Travel Trade Trends
  • Long-haul markets unfamiliar with UK still highly
    dependent on travel trade
  • 90 book through trade in some markets, whereas
    14 in Nordic area
  • Trade provides reassurance, delivers product
    fit and is culturally sensitive
  • However, even in China increased on-line research
    and engagement with UGC
  • Rise of the DIY package tour

26
Heritage and culture remains a core UK strength
  • Britain perceived as a world leader (Ranked 3rd
    in NBI behind France and Italy)
  • Potential holiday visitors express desire to
    experience our heritage and culture
  • Among the most popular activities undertaken by
    actual holiday visitors
  • In an increasingly competitive market vital to
    build on USPs and not rely solely on tactical use
    of fashion

27
UK end of year report the Could do better
aspects
  • Visitors expectations of welcome are poor (UK
    ranked 16th by NBI, Canada top)
  • Britain has a high cost base, so the experience
    must offer value for money
  • Potential visitors have poor perception of
    weather and food but neither is a deterrent

28
Increasingly fragmented market, but with some
common themes
  • what you do more important than where you do
    it experiences not destinations count
  • Authenticity travel-savvy visitors have higher
    expectations than earlier generations
  • Fly in on Ryanair, stay in a Hilton, grab lunch
    in McDonalds no neat segments

29
The future (1)
  • Economic cycles will ensure good years and bad
    years
  • but is the era of rising disposable income
    (especially for the retired) and falling travel
    costs at an end?
  • New global hubs for business set to challenge
    London (Mumbai, Shanghai)
  • Socio-demographic change will impact why we
    travel and who we travel with

30
The future (2)
  • Geo-politics matters (China wont have a
    significant balance of payments deficit)
  • Fashions will come and go
  • Technology will alter how we research, book,
    experience and recount travel
  • Climate change will shape government, business
    and consumer behaviour there will be winners and
    losers
  • Competition for the tourist , and potential
    tourists attention will intensify

31
The future (3)
  • The unexpected (9/11) will continue to take us
    by surprise, and the expected (EU expansion)
    will continue to have unexpected implications
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