U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook

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U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook
Mark Rodekohr, Ph.D. Energy Information
Administration mark.rodekohr_at_eia.doe.gov
14th International Conference on Liquefied
Natural Gas March 23, 2004 Doha, Qatar
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Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, 1970-2025
(2002 dollars per thousand cubic feet)
8.44
Reference case (nominal dollars)
1.55
1995
2025
4.40
History
Projections
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EIAs Natural Gas Outlook Production,
Consumption, and Imports,
1970-2025 (trillion cubic feet)
32
31.4 Tcf
History
Projections
23
Net imports
24
Consumption
24.0 Tcf
15
Production
16
8
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2025
4
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector,
1990-2025(trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
Industrial
Electric generators
Residential
Commercial
CNG vehicles
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U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production, 1990 - 2025
(trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
Onshore Unconventional
Nonassociated Onshore Conventional
Nonassociated Offshore
Associated/Dissolved
Alaska
6
Major Sources of Incremental Natural Gas Supply,
2002-2025 (trillion cubic feet)
32
Growth in Alaskan Production
28
Growth in LNG Imports
24
Growth in Non-associated
Unconventional
20

All Other Production
16
2002
2010
2020
2025
Includes total associated-dissolved,
non-associated conventional, lower-48
offshore, supplemental natural gas production,
Canadian, and Mexican imports.
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U.S. LNG Imports by Country, 1992-2002
Nigeria
Qatar
Trinidad and Tobago
Australia
Other
Algeria
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Current U.S. LNG Import Terminals
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U.S. LNG Imports, 1990-2025(trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
New terminals
Existing terminals
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LNG Imports at Existing Terminals, 2000-2025
(billion cubic feet)
Historic
Projected
Cove Point, MD
Elba Island, GA
Lake Charles, LA
Everett, MA
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New LNG Import Terminals Planned
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Proposed North American LNG Import Terminals
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EIAs LNG Receiving Terminal Outlook2010 Import
Levels at New Terminals
Source Energy Information Administration,
National Energy Modeling System,
AEO2004.D101703E.
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U.S. Natural Gas Net Imports, 1990-2025
(trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
LNG
Canada
Mexico
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Regional LNG Imports at New Terminals,2010,
2015, 2020, and 2025 (billion cubic feet)
NE
(2016)
WA/OR
Mountain
Mid Atl
(2016)
S. Atl
E.S.Cntrl
CA
W.S.Cntrl
AZ/NM
(2009)
MX into US
FL
(2010)
(2007)
(2010)
(2007)
(20xx) Start year of first new terminal
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Components of Regional LNG trigger price in year
of expansion/construction,(2002 dollars per
thousand cubic feet)
Existing
New
Regasification includes pipeline cost from
Bahamas
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Comparison of Net LNG Import Forecasts (trillion
cubic feet)
History
Projections
NPC/BF
NPC/RP
PIRA
EEA
EVA
GII
EIA/STEC
EIA/BASE
EIA/RTEC
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Summary

• Short-term wellhead prices remain high and
  vulnerable to spikes. Some price reduction is
  expected later this year.
• Current storage inventories below normal but
  above year ago
• Over the longer term, higher demand will require
  an increasing dependence on unconventional
  production, natural gas from Alaska and liquefied
  natural gas imports.
• LNG holds significant potential as a supply
  source particularly over the long term.
• A substantial boost in supplies from production
  or imports will take time and require capital
  investments for additional infrastructure.
• The pace of technology advances could change the
  outlook.