Operational Seasonal Forecasting plans with POAMA

1
Operational Seasonal Forecasting plans with POAMA
Brad Murphy National Climate Centre
2
Current Operational Products- POAMA
Other products are produced but are
experimental under BMRC
3
Current Operational Products- Seasonal Climate
Outlook

• Also SOI analogues
• More detailed outlook provided to subscribers
  terciles for districts, townships

4
What we (NCC) could be doing- use POAMA to
produce wide-range of seasonal prediction products
5
Products considered

• Forecasts of Rainfall, daily max, min, mean
  temp, MSL pressure
• Probabilistic forecasts above/below median,
  tercile
• Deterministic forecasts ensemble mean anomalies
  (bias corrected)
• Seasonal forecasts 3 monthly out to 6 months
  ahead
• Regional forecasts e.g. Global, Australia,
  South Pacific, Africa
• Formats similar to current seasonal outlooks,
  images and grids