Development of S

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Development of ST Foresight Capacity for
National Science Advice on ST Convergence

Jack Smith, Director ST Foresight Office of the
National Science Advisor, Privy Council Office
Office of the
Bureau du National Science Advisor
Conseiller national
des sciences
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Role of National Science Advisor

• To provide sound, independent, non-partisan
  advice on the governments directions and
  priorities for science and technology
• To provide input on priorities for future
  investments in science and innovation --
  balancing the need to support excellence in ST
  with benefits to society and the economy
• To advise on the commercialization and innovation
  gap in Canada and mechanisms to close it
• To examine Canadas role in international ST and
  work with the research community to bring the
  benefits of our RD to bear on the challenges of
  the developing world

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Role of National Science Advisor

• 5. To find mechanisms to remove barriers to
  horizontal collaborations and build partnerships
  between various departments, agencies,
  institutions and foundations, between the public
  and private sectors
• 6. To develop a framework for the evaluation and
  funding of big science projects
• 7. To help build a stronger science culture in
  Canada and to serve as a science ambassador for
  Canada whenever possible, to help convey to the
  world that we are a scientifically and
  technologically
• sophisticated nation
• 8. To provide sound foresight on future
  challenges, opportunities and impacts of ST in
  Canada .

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Strategic Drivers, Trends, Shocks

• Drivers discernible change patterns e.g. global
  society and security political geometry
  resources demands ST impacts
• Change from year to year
• Strategic Trends change causing factors e.g.
  decline in state sovereignty complex military
  challenges new politico-military alliances
  Islam-West antagonism space and cyber conflicts
  more nuclear equipped nations more humanitarian
  demands inter-state migration failing states
  proliferate powerful new technologies
• Change or are revised perhaps every 4 5 years
• Possible Shocks high impact, low probability
  events Gulf Stream shift fusion power
  infectious pandemic fertility decline secular
  reversal cyber collapse human ageing
  breakthrough solar flare, asteroid impacts
  financial collapse sustained deflation
  autonomous computers
  
• Source UK
  DOD Joint Doctrine and Concepts Centre

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Macro Shaping Trends

• Integration, Miniaturization of Technology
• Globalization of Trade, Capital, Terror
• Harmonization of Standards, Protocols
• Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations
• Intensification, Differentiation, of Wealth
• Bi-polarization of Religious Values and Secular
  Evolution
• Transformation of Infrastructure Systems
• Virtualization, Digitization Integration of
  Business Models, Communications, Entertainment,
  Education
• Automation, and Customization of Production
• Acceleration of Knowledge Services as Economic
  Driver
• Proliferation, Adaptation, Rapid Circulation of
  Disease

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Stages in the Foresight Process

• Issues and Uncertainties the prevailing view of
  change in the context of what we do
• Environmental Scanning observable trends,
  emerging tendencies or potential drivers of
  change in the world beyond what we know
• Prospective Impacts where we see where the
  drivers force change to occur
• Futurealities - Contingencies visions and
  scenarios of alternative possible futures and
  their implications
• Backcasting - for insights and RD, policy
  positioning

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Technology Foresight Mandate

• Understand drivers, pace and implications of ST
  derived change formulate collaborative
  investigations
• Stimulate anticipatory capacities, contingent
  views, agility and adaptiveness of organizations
  and individuals
• Identify gaps and needs for institutional
  preparedness
• Elaborate potential societal threats,
  vulnerabilities and opportunities
• Construct multiple scenarios and explore the
  policy and technology implications of prospective
  futures
• Strengthen horizontal alignments of decision
  makers and organizations to enable future RD
  collaboration strategies
• Identify specific candidates for RD that can add
  flexibility to government capacities through
  horizontal partnerships

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A Range of Prospects

• Sustainability science
• Remote environmental sensing
• Metabolomics
• Technology convergence/genetics
• DNA-based early warning
• Advanced power systems
• Microbial ecosystems
• Remote diagnosis/diseases
• Personalized medicine
• Biotechnology
• Human global health/environment
• Predictive modelling
• Security/Info systems, networks
• Integrated nanotechnology
• Regenerative medicine
• Advanced computational systems

• Climate change from space
• Sustainable manufacturing
• Intelligent robotics systems
• Space for environmental security
• Biomass energy
• Changing northern environment
• Space-enabling technologies
• Biodiversity/Invasive species
• Canadas sea floor
• Virtual ocean
• Proteomics/economy, health
• Space Surveillance and National Security
• Intelligent Autonomous Systems.
• Clean hydrocarbons, H2
• Sensors/Activators - health
• Biodiversity info for KBE

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Biosystemics

• Biosystemics The study of converging
  possibilities arising from integration and
  intersection of nanotechnology, ecological
  science, biotechnology, information technology
  and cognitive sciences, and their prospective
  impacts on materials science, the management of
  complex public systems for bio-health, eco and
  food system integrity and disease mitigation.
• Biosystemics and bio-health innovation and
  stewardship reports at www.techforesight.ca

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Bio-Systemics Drivers

• Technology Functionality
• Market Pull
• Technology Push
• Societal Demand
• Knowledge Governance

• Politics, Geo-Politics
• Social Attitudes
• Social Mobilization
• Environment
• Perceived Risk
• Shaping Events

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Biosystemic ST Implications

• Emerging bio driven applications linked to nano,
  cogno, info and eco systems signal broad human
  societal reach and wide and potentially
  controversial impacts e.g. through fundamental
  systems replication potentials distributed data
  bases public adoption and concerns
• Health care delivery impacts are likely
  disruptive
• Personal and public health systems innovations
• Bio-sensors, markers and genetic identifiers have
  major security implications
• Many prospective regulatory impacts,
  international alignment issues

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BioSystemics Characteristics

• Scale Nano-scale observations at low end Data
  handling and simulation at high end
• Convergence Unity at the material level
• Consilience High level models may result in
  unity at theoretical level
• Emergence Seeking to understand rules for
  networks, tipping points, systems structure,
  chaos and complexity

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Prospective Biosystemics

• 50 of all new drugs may be based on genomics -
  designed for a subset of population.
• Pharmacogenomics can reduce drug costs and time
  by 30, and 50
• Molecular nanotechnology for manufacture of
  compounds, bio-engineered medications.
• First major chronic disease can be prevented at
  the molecular level by a genetic drug.
• Bio-based economy grows from agriculture
  producing new sources of energy, natural
  resources.
• Commercial production of hydrogen fuel cells from
  water using genetically modified algae.
• Nano-electro-mechanical systems (NEMS) flight
  systems and bio-mimetic material systems
• Entirely new classes of materials are in use, and
  nano diagnostic products enter marketplace.
• Early communicating and/or programmable
  nano-systems
• Biochips 10 to twelfth bits/cm2 Sensory chips
  taste, smell, sound
• Nanobots working in labs and being tested,
  evaluated, for various specific applications
• Nanomedicine may replace forms of traditional
  medicine surgery, pharmaceuticals,
• Cyberspace covers 75 of world new
  macro-functional mind-machine interface required
• Robots mentally, physically may become superior
  to humans in some learning oriented areas

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Why Now? - Science and Scale
Giga scale Increased Understanding of
systems Dynamics integration
Exa Peta Tera Giga Mega Kilo Hecto Deca 1 Deci Cen
ti Milli Micro Nano Pico Femto Atto
Ecology
Bioinformatics
Xeno-transplantation
Epidemiology
SCALE
Biology
Physics
Chemistry
Nanoscale Increased ability To observe Work
with matter At atomic level
Biogeneration
Genetic Engineering
Tissue Engineering
Genomics Proteomics
Semiconductor Photonics
Nano-robotics
Diagnostics
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Convergence
Biotech
Computers
Genes
Bits
Neurons
Atoms
Networks
Nanotech
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Consilience

• Unity of theory and knowledge
• Theory Connection
• Vertical integration using computational models
• Hybrid technologies
• Nano-medicine
• Quantum computing
• Should include social sciences

Linkages produce integration
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Bio-, Nano-, Info-, Cogno- Convergence
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Biotechnology

• Present
• Cloning
• Designer species
• Accurate screening
• Improved knowledge

• Future
• Targeted genetics
• Rapid prototyping
• Industrial applications
• Gene therapy

• Consilience
• Biological models provide the basis for
  understanding self-organizing and
  self-replicating systems

• Convergence
• Molecular modeling
• Neural networks
• Lab-on-a-chip
• Bio-transistor

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Nanotechnology

• Present
• Nanotubes
• Nano-coatings
• Liposomes
• Lapping compounds

• Future
• Quantum dots
• Catalyst
• SET
• Self-org manufacture

• Consilience
• Reproduction of natural processes (DNA)
• Enable macro n/w

• Convergence
• Microbivores
• Photonic crystals
• Molecular switching
• Sensors

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Info-Cogno Technology

• Present
• Moores Law
• Internet
• Data Mining
• Simulation

• Future
• AI Comput. Intel.
• Autonomic Controls
• Ubiquitous Comp. Comm.

• Consilience
• Singularity change so rapid it can only be
  managed by computer assisted humans

• Convergence
• Bio-interface
• Asynchronous
• Low energy chip
• Gigaflop modeling

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Systemics

• Present
• Top-down models
• Epidemiology
• Model results
• H. Scale dynamics

• Future
• Bottom-up simulations
• Eco-epidemiology
• Model basic activity
• Micro-dynamics

• Consilience
• Unified world view will require high level of
  cross-disciplinary education

• Convergence
• Biological models
• Replication
• Adaptation
• Heuristics

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Disruptive, Enabling ST

• Nanotechnlogydevices integration,
  miniaturization
• Customized design, modelling, engineered new
  materials
• Quantum other computing models that reach
  beyond Moores
• Ubiquitous, advanced semantic data rich Internet
• Cyber agents sensors for networked intelligence
• Autonomic self repair software code generation
• Remote stand alone power systems for sensors
• Robotics and nanorobotics, linked in colonies
• Smart organics that upgrade life forms
  intelligence
• Visualization, human-machine interfaces linking
  brain and machine capacities

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New Bio-Info-Matter Entities

• Emergent Variety
• Carbon nano-tubes
• Metallic bio-nanoparticles
• Quantum dots
• Ultra thin films
• DNA structures, logic gates and switches
• Laser emitters, photonic triggers
• Bio-sensors

• Emerging Applications
• Nano RAM for computing
• Conductive polymer nano-particles for cancer,
  solar energy
• Next generation nano-cell lithium batteries
• Nano-crystalline coatings for bio-implants,
  prosthetics
• Bio-electronics for brain repair

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Technology Map

pg. 2
Legend
Therapeutics
,
Drugs and
Anaerobic
pg. 5
Drug-like
Bacterial
Therapies
Therapy
Personal
Infectious
Preventative
Chronic care
disease
Medicine
therapies
therapies
Enhancement
,
pg.4
Genomics
,
pg. 8
Diagnostics
, pg. 7
Drug Delivery
, pg. 6
Personalized
Medicine
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Tissue Engineering
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Deeper Dives

• Understanding Convergence exploring new
  integrative frontiers in nano-bio-info-cogno
  horizons
• Bio-Based Economy moving from industrial economy
  to sustainability
• Computational Materials computer formulated,
  simulated emergent and advanced new materials
• Canadian Cities 2025 complex pictures of urban
  diversity, change
• The Evolving NanoCosm looking into
  nanotechnology application horizons and potentials

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Influential Domains

• Water Horizons 2020 stewardship, eco innovation
  and transformative technologies
• Climate Change Beyond Kyoto inspired Technology
  Scenarios 2025
• Bio-Enviro Interface anticipating stewardship
  and policy challenges
• Animal Health Preparedness and Interface
  Technologies in four countries
• Sleep, Time and Attention neuro-science
  frontiers
• Synthetic Biology vistas of possibility
• Personal Genomics health, security,
  socio-economics

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Also Being Contemplated

• Systems on a Chip distributed computing and auto
  genetic system capabilities
• Plastic Signalers Polytronics new materials and
  systemic triggers
• Sentient Systems smart-net-ness in the
  ubiquitous inanimate environment
• Geo-Spatial Pathways integration platforms
  strategic security applications
• Emergent Networks from math to reality to
  network effects impacts
• Visual Analytics, Avatars Bot-Agents glimpses
  into the future cyber-sim reality
• Demographics and Culture The new Canadian mosaic
  scenarios 2050

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Hopes

• Quick detection of new diseases (SARS)
• Improved, specific drugs
• Non-invasive tests
• Integrated public health systems
• Genetic (permanent) cures
• Bio-remediation of environment
• Eliminate pesticides
• Natural food productivity

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Fears

• Creation of out-of-control life forms
• Reduced biodiversity
• Environmental engineering destabilizes
• Trans-human competition
• Biological cybernetic
• Genetic time bombs
• Third world gap
• God is smarter than us

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