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Development of S

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National Science Advisor Conseiller national des sciences. Jack Smith, ... Engineering. Xeno-transplantation. Biology ... Industrial applications. Gene ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Development of S


1
Development of ST Foresight Capacity for
National Science Advice on ST Convergence

Jack Smith, Director ST Foresight Office of the
National Science Advisor, Privy Council Office
Office of the
Bureau du National Science Advisor
Conseiller national
des sciences
2
Role of National Science Advisor
  • To provide sound, independent, non-partisan
    advice on the governments directions and
    priorities for science and technology
  • To provide input on priorities for future
    investments in science and innovation --
    balancing the need to support excellence in ST
    with benefits to society and the economy
  • To advise on the commercialization and innovation
    gap in Canada and mechanisms to close it
  • To examine Canadas role in international ST and
    work with the research community to bring the
    benefits of our RD to bear on the challenges of
    the developing world

3
Role of National Science Advisor
  • 5. To find mechanisms to remove barriers to
    horizontal collaborations and build partnerships
    between various departments, agencies,
    institutions and foundations, between the public
    and private sectors
  • 6. To develop a framework for the evaluation and
    funding of big science projects
  • 7. To help build a stronger science culture in
    Canada and to serve as a science ambassador for
    Canada whenever possible, to help convey to the
    world that we are a scientifically and
    technologically
  • sophisticated nation
  • 8. To provide sound foresight on future
    challenges, opportunities and impacts of ST in
    Canada .

4
Strategic Drivers, Trends, Shocks
  • Drivers discernible change patterns e.g. global
    society and security political geometry
    resources demands ST impacts
  • Change from year to year
  • Strategic Trends change causing factors e.g.
    decline in state sovereignty complex military
    challenges new politico-military alliances
    Islam-West antagonism space and cyber conflicts
    more nuclear equipped nations more humanitarian
    demands inter-state migration failing states
    proliferate powerful new technologies
  • Change or are revised perhaps every 4 5 years
  • Possible Shocks high impact, low probability
    events Gulf Stream shift fusion power
    infectious pandemic fertility decline secular
    reversal cyber collapse human ageing
    breakthrough solar flare, asteroid impacts
    financial collapse sustained deflation
    autonomous computers
  • Source UK
    DOD Joint Doctrine and Concepts Centre

5
Macro Shaping Trends
  • Integration, Miniaturization of Technology
  • Globalization of Trade, Capital, Terror
  • Harmonization of Standards, Protocols
  • Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations
  • Intensification, Differentiation, of Wealth
  • Bi-polarization of Religious Values and Secular
    Evolution
  • Transformation of Infrastructure Systems
  • Virtualization, Digitization Integration of
    Business Models, Communications, Entertainment,
    Education
  • Automation, and Customization of Production
  • Acceleration of Knowledge Services as Economic
    Driver
  • Proliferation, Adaptation, Rapid Circulation of
    Disease

6
Stages in the Foresight Process
  • Issues and Uncertainties the prevailing view of
    change in the context of what we do
  • Environmental Scanning observable trends,
    emerging tendencies or potential drivers of
    change in the world beyond what we know
  • Prospective Impacts where we see where the
    drivers force change to occur
  • Futurealities - Contingencies visions and
    scenarios of alternative possible futures and
    their implications
  • Backcasting - for insights and RD, policy
    positioning

7
Technology Foresight Mandate
  • Understand drivers, pace and implications of ST
    derived change formulate collaborative
    investigations
  • Stimulate anticipatory capacities, contingent
    views, agility and adaptiveness of organizations
    and individuals
  • Identify gaps and needs for institutional
    preparedness
  • Elaborate potential societal threats,
    vulnerabilities and opportunities
  • Construct multiple scenarios and explore the
    policy and technology implications of prospective
    futures
  • Strengthen horizontal alignments of decision
    makers and organizations to enable future RD
    collaboration strategies
  • Identify specific candidates for RD that can add
    flexibility to government capacities through
    horizontal partnerships

8
A Range of Prospects
  • Sustainability science
  • Remote environmental sensing
  • Metabolomics
  • Technology convergence/genetics
  • DNA-based early warning
  • Advanced power systems
  • Microbial ecosystems
  • Remote diagnosis/diseases
  • Personalized medicine
  • Biotechnology
  • Human global health/environment
  • Predictive modelling
  • Security/Info systems, networks
  • Integrated nanotechnology
  • Regenerative medicine
  • Advanced computational systems
  • Climate change from space
  • Sustainable manufacturing
  • Intelligent robotics systems
  • Space for environmental security
  • Biomass energy
  • Changing northern environment
  • Space-enabling technologies
  • Biodiversity/Invasive species
  • Canadas sea floor
  • Virtual ocean
  • Proteomics/economy, health
  • Space Surveillance and National Security
  • Intelligent Autonomous Systems.
  • Clean hydrocarbons, H2
  • Sensors/Activators - health
  • Biodiversity info for KBE

9
Biosystemics
  • Biosystemics The study of converging
    possibilities arising from integration and
    intersection of nanotechnology, ecological
    science, biotechnology, information technology
    and cognitive sciences, and their prospective
    impacts on materials science, the management of
    complex public systems for bio-health, eco and
    food system integrity and disease mitigation.
  • Biosystemics and bio-health innovation and
    stewardship reports at www.techforesight.ca

10
Bio-Systemics Drivers
  • Technology Functionality
  • Market Pull
  • Technology Push
  • Societal Demand
  • Knowledge Governance
  • Politics, Geo-Politics
  • Social Attitudes
  • Social Mobilization
  • Environment
  • Perceived Risk
  • Shaping Events

11
Biosystemic ST Implications
  • Emerging bio driven applications linked to nano,
    cogno, info and eco systems signal broad human
    societal reach and wide and potentially
    controversial impacts e.g. through fundamental
    systems replication potentials distributed data
    bases public adoption and concerns
  • Health care delivery impacts are likely
    disruptive
  • Personal and public health systems innovations
  • Bio-sensors, markers and genetic identifiers have
    major security implications
  • Many prospective regulatory impacts,
    international alignment issues

12
BioSystemics Characteristics
  • Scale Nano-scale observations at low end Data
    handling and simulation at high end
  • Convergence Unity at the material level
  • Consilience High level models may result in
    unity at theoretical level
  • Emergence Seeking to understand rules for
    networks, tipping points, systems structure,
    chaos and complexity

13
Prospective Biosystemics
  • 50 of all new drugs may be based on genomics -
    designed for a subset of population.
  • Pharmacogenomics can reduce drug costs and time
    by 30, and 50
  • Molecular nanotechnology for manufacture of
    compounds, bio-engineered medications.
  • First major chronic disease can be prevented at
    the molecular level by a genetic drug.
  • Bio-based economy grows from agriculture
    producing new sources of energy, natural
    resources.
  • Commercial production of hydrogen fuel cells from
    water using genetically modified algae.
  • Nano-electro-mechanical systems (NEMS) flight
    systems and bio-mimetic material systems
  • Entirely new classes of materials are in use, and
    nano diagnostic products enter marketplace.
  • Early communicating and/or programmable
    nano-systems
  • Biochips 10 to twelfth bits/cm2 Sensory chips
    taste, smell, sound
  • Nanobots working in labs and being tested,
    evaluated, for various specific applications
  • Nanomedicine may replace forms of traditional
    medicine surgery, pharmaceuticals,
  • Cyberspace covers 75 of world new
    macro-functional mind-machine interface required
  • Robots mentally, physically may become superior
    to humans in some learning oriented areas

14
Why Now? - Science and Scale
Giga scale Increased Understanding of
systems Dynamics integration
Exa Peta Tera Giga Mega Kilo Hecto Deca 1 Deci Cen
ti Milli Micro Nano Pico Femto Atto
Ecology
Bioinformatics
Xeno-transplantation
Epidemiology
SCALE
Biology
Physics
Chemistry
Nanoscale Increased ability To observe Work
with matter At atomic level
Biogeneration
Genetic Engineering
Tissue Engineering
Genomics Proteomics
Semiconductor Photonics
Nano-robotics
Diagnostics
15
Convergence
Biotech
Computers
Genes
Bits
Neurons
Atoms
Networks
Nanotech
16
Consilience
  • Unity of theory and knowledge
  • Theory Connection
  • Vertical integration using computational models
  • Hybrid technologies
  • Nano-medicine
  • Quantum computing
  • Should include social sciences

Linkages produce integration
17
Bio-, Nano-, Info-, Cogno- Convergence
18
Biotechnology
  • Present
  • Cloning
  • Designer species
  • Accurate screening
  • Improved knowledge
  • Future
  • Targeted genetics
  • Rapid prototyping
  • Industrial applications
  • Gene therapy
  • Consilience
  • Biological models provide the basis for
    understanding self-organizing and
    self-replicating systems
  • Convergence
  • Molecular modeling
  • Neural networks
  • Lab-on-a-chip
  • Bio-transistor

19
Nanotechnology
  • Present
  • Nanotubes
  • Nano-coatings
  • Liposomes
  • Lapping compounds
  • Future
  • Quantum dots
  • Catalyst
  • SET
  • Self-org manufacture
  • Consilience
  • Reproduction of natural processes (DNA)
  • Enable macro n/w
  • Convergence
  • Microbivores
  • Photonic crystals
  • Molecular switching
  • Sensors

20
Info-Cogno Technology
  • Present
  • Moores Law
  • Internet
  • Data Mining
  • Simulation
  • Future
  • AI Comput. Intel.
  • Autonomic Controls
  • Ubiquitous Comp. Comm.
  • Consilience
  • Singularity change so rapid it can only be
    managed by computer assisted humans
  • Convergence
  • Bio-interface
  • Asynchronous
  • Low energy chip
  • Gigaflop modeling

21
Systemics
  • Present
  • Top-down models
  • Epidemiology
  • Model results
  • H. Scale dynamics
  • Future
  • Bottom-up simulations
  • Eco-epidemiology
  • Model basic activity
  • Micro-dynamics
  • Consilience
  • Unified world view will require high level of
    cross-disciplinary education
  • Convergence
  • Biological models
  • Replication
  • Adaptation
  • Heuristics

22
Disruptive, Enabling ST
  • Nanotechnlogydevices integration,
    miniaturization
  • Customized design, modelling, engineered new
    materials
  • Quantum other computing models that reach
    beyond Moores
  • Ubiquitous, advanced semantic data rich Internet
  • Cyber agents sensors for networked intelligence
  • Autonomic self repair software code generation
  • Remote stand alone power systems for sensors
  • Robotics and nanorobotics, linked in colonies
  • Smart organics that upgrade life forms
    intelligence
  • Visualization, human-machine interfaces linking
    brain and machine capacities

23
New Bio-Info-Matter Entities
  • Emergent Variety
  • Carbon nano-tubes
  • Metallic bio-nanoparticles
  • Quantum dots
  • Ultra thin films
  • DNA structures, logic gates and switches
  • Laser emitters, photonic triggers
  • Bio-sensors
  • Emerging Applications
  • Nano RAM for computing
  • Conductive polymer nano-particles for cancer,
    solar energy
  • Next generation nano-cell lithium batteries
  • Nano-crystalline coatings for bio-implants,
    prosthetics
  • Bio-electronics for brain repair

24
Technology Map

pg. 2
Legend
Therapeutics
,
Drugs and
Anaerobic
pg. 5
Drug-like
Bacterial
Therapies
Therapy
Personal
Infectious
Preventative
Chronic care
disease
Medicine
therapies
therapies
Enhancement
,
pg.4
Genomics
,
pg. 8
Diagnostics
, pg. 7
Drug Delivery
, pg. 6
Personalized
Medicine
25
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26
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27
Tissue Engineering
28
Deeper Dives
  • Understanding Convergence exploring new
    integrative frontiers in nano-bio-info-cogno
    horizons
  • Bio-Based Economy moving from industrial economy
    to sustainability
  • Computational Materials computer formulated,
    simulated emergent and advanced new materials
  • Canadian Cities 2025 complex pictures of urban
    diversity, change
  • The Evolving NanoCosm looking into
    nanotechnology application horizons and potentials

29
Influential Domains
  • Water Horizons 2020 stewardship, eco innovation
    and transformative technologies
  • Climate Change Beyond Kyoto inspired Technology
    Scenarios 2025
  • Bio-Enviro Interface anticipating stewardship
    and policy challenges
  • Animal Health Preparedness and Interface
    Technologies in four countries
  • Sleep, Time and Attention neuro-science
    frontiers
  • Synthetic Biology vistas of possibility
  • Personal Genomics health, security,
    socio-economics

30
Also Being Contemplated
  • Systems on a Chip distributed computing and auto
    genetic system capabilities
  • Plastic Signalers Polytronics new materials and
    systemic triggers
  • Sentient Systems smart-net-ness in the
    ubiquitous inanimate environment
  • Geo-Spatial Pathways integration platforms
    strategic security applications
  • Emergent Networks from math to reality to
    network effects impacts
  • Visual Analytics, Avatars Bot-Agents glimpses
    into the future cyber-sim reality
  • Demographics and Culture The new Canadian mosaic
    scenarios 2050

31
Hopes
  • Quick detection of new diseases (SARS)
  • Improved, specific drugs
  • Non-invasive tests
  • Integrated public health systems
  • Genetic (permanent) cures
  • Bio-remediation of environment
  • Eliminate pesticides
  • Natural food productivity

32
Fears
  • Creation of out-of-control life forms
  • Reduced biodiversity
  • Environmental engineering destabilizes
  • Trans-human competition
  • Biological cybernetic
  • Genetic time bombs
  • Third world gap
  • God is smarter than us

33
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