The Insurgent Perspective

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The Insurgent Perspective

• Will Reno
• Department of Political Science
• Northwestern University
• www.willreno.org

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Nice Insurgents
Hargeisa, Somalia (Somaliland)
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Nasty Insurgents (somewhere out there)
Monrovia, Liberia in the 1990s
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What do Nasty Insurgents look like?

• Sierra Leone Violation counts by type and sex
  of the victim
• Males Females
• Violation Type Count Percent Count
  Percent Ratio M/F
• Forced Displacement 5020 63.1 2941 36.9 1.71
• Abduction 3888 65.4 2058 34.6 1.89
• Arbitrary Detention 3235 67.2 1581 32.8
  2.05
• Killing 3333 74.4 1149 25.6 2.90
• Destruction of Property 2406 70.9 988 29.1
  2.44
• Assault / Beating 2330 72.0 905 28.0 2.57
• Looting of Goods 2126 70.0 911 30.0 2.33
• Physical Torture 1517 74.1 529 25.9 2.87
• Forced Labour 1347 73.5 485 26.5 2.78
• Extortion 931 73.3 339 26.7 2.75
• Rape 0 0.0 626 100.0 0.00
• Sexual Abuse 299 61.5 187 38.5 1.60
• Amputation 276 73.8 98 26.2 2.82
• Forced Recruitment 295 89.1 36 10.9 8.19
• Sexual Slavery 0 0.0 189 100.0 0.00

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What Makes Some Insurgents Nasty and Why Does It
Matter to Us?

• The Main Point The way that insurgents fight
  reflects the politics of the places in which they
  fight
• Why Does It Matter? Understanding local politics
  is the entry point for understanding the logic of
  how particular insurgents work.

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Regime Instability in Africa(African presidents
as poor actuarial risks)

• End of regime through military coups and other
  violent removals from power 60.2 (1960-91)
• Removal from power resulting in death of
  president 18 (1960-91)
• Removal from power resulting in exile of
  president 23.3 (1960-91)
• Post-1990 Armed challenges to regimes resulting
  in civil war and / or state collapse Liberia,
  Sierra Leone, Somalia, Congo, Guinea-Bissau
• Violence associated with recent elections
  Nigeria (2007), Kenya (2008)

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The Exit of Historical Leaders of Insurgencies
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Processes of Regime Fragmentation

• How many degrees of separation between rebels
  and government? (Political Godfathers, criminal
  gangs and rebels)
• The problem of civic activism We are ruled by
  criminals, and criminals do not allow these
  problems to be solved.

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The Bottom Line

• Many insurgencies in Africa reflect processes of
  regime fragmentation and the survival strategies
  of elite groups to retain power.
• What would change that equation?

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Could New Global Narratives Fire Up New Kinds of
Insurgents?

• Narratives and technology Broadband Youtube
  revolution
• Narratives and generational experiences of living
  without a central government (Somalia, Congo)
• What would it take to organize people around a
  narrative of shared oppression?

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Broadband Africa
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Look for the Insurgent Break-away Why do some
insurgents in Africa use the web while most
others do not?

• Search Youtube for shabaab and nasheed and
  you get 205 hits
• MEND and Nigeria produces only 71 hits,
  mostly news reports
• Learning how insurgents work through their uses
  of technology what is the significance of
  variable uses of the internet?

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Applying Lessons from Africa to Counterinsurgency
in Afghanistan

• Lets talk!