Pork Production Risks that Contribute to Variability Thomas J Fangman DVM, MS, Dipl ABVP Commercial

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Pork Production Risks that Contribute to
VariabilityThomas J Fangman DVM, MS, Dipl
ABVPCommercial Agriculture Swine Veterinary
SpecialistUniversity of Missouri Columbia, MO
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Pork Production Risks that Contribute to
Variability

• Reproductive Failure
• PRRS
• Management
• Physiology
• Disease (epidemic vs. endemic)
• Mortality and/or Morbidity
• Marketing
• Input Costs
• Labor/Personnel
• Genetic Variation

• Output Variation
• Numbers (PBA, PW, etc.)
• Quality
• Uncontrollable Events
• Input Costs
• Feed
• Others
• Growth Performance
• Environmental
• Temperature Fluctuations
• Cash Flow
• Urbanization

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Categories of Production Risks or Variability

• Biological Variation
• Reproductive Failure (lower farrowing rate)
• Genetic Variation
• Output Variation (PBA, PW, DL)
• Infectious Disease
• Epidemic vs. Endemic
• Morbidity and Mortality

• Production System Inefficiencies
• Variation in Input Costs (feed, etc.)
• Growth Performance
• Environmental Influences (inability to control)
• Human Intervention
• Labor/Personnel
• Marketing/Cash Flow
• Urbanization

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The 1 production problem on the average farm is
failure to produce enough pigs, relative to the
size of the breeding herd for that facility.
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THROUGHPUT GOALS

• 
  Example
• Finishing Capacity
  eight-1000 hd barns
• Farrowing Crates 220
  crates
• Sow Inventory
  1100 sows
• Cash-Flow Needs
  YES
• Potential Production
  22,000/year
• Packer Contract
  1800/month
• Weaned Pig Contract (28/pig) 1850/month

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Probability of turning over 4 Aces in a newly
shuffled deck of cards?
x
x

• 4 3 2 1 24
• 52 51 50 49 6,497,400 or
  1270,725

x
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Risk Factors of Production have a Multiplying
Affect that must be considered when determining
throughput requirements

• Farrowing Rate 90
• Pigs Born Alive 10.2
• Preweaning Mortality 10
• Weaning Average 9.2
• Nursery Mortality 2
• Grow/Finish Mortality 3

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Example Contract to Provide 1800 Market Hogs Per
Month

• 1800/95 (NG/F morality5) 1,895 weaned pigs
• 1895/9.2 pigs weaned/litter 206 sows
• 90FR breed 229 sows/month
• What if born-live and farrowing rate drop and PWM
  rises?
• 1895/8.8 pigs weaned/litter215 sows
• 88 FR Breed 244 sows/month

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Sows Bred per Month1992-1994
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Services Per Group--1991
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Farrowing Rate1992-1994
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Cumulative in Estrus Each Day Postwean
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Farrowing Rate by WSI
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Reasons for Removing Sows
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Pigs Born Alive by WSI
3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14
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PigCHAMP 3.05 (1994)
4 5 6
7 8 9
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Born Alive Per Litter 1992--1994
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Weaned Per Litter
1992--1994
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Born Alive Per Month
1992--1994
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Weaned Per Month
1992--1993
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Nursery Mortality1992-1994
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Grower Mortality1992-1994
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Finisher Mortality1992--1994
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Number Sold By Month1992--1994
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Effect of ThroughputOn Cost of Production
1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1
2.2 2.3 2.4
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Total Cost of Production/CWTAt Various Building
Cost/Sow Space
1700 2000 2300
2600 2900
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Effects of various Grow-finish feed costs/ton on
total cost of production/cwt.
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Impact of Feed Efficiency
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Typical Growth Curves of Swine
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CONCLUSIONVariability is inherent in all pork
production systems. Production goals must take
into account this variability. Tools that will
allow producers to model the inherent system
variability will assist producers in making sound
business decisions (ROE model).