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Land and Peace in the Middle East

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... and Beit Sahour (7,335 Christians) make up 20,237 Christians of the 120,000 total population (1) ... What these two senators [Byrd and Dole] assume is that ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Land and Peace in the Middle East


1
Land and Peace in the Middle East
Examining Size, Significance and Solutions
Dr. Martin Sherman
Manila, August 2004
2
"Do whatever you want, you and your family in
your home, worship whatever you want, but there
had not been, or will be a church in the
kingdom. Prince Sultan of Saudi Arabia
The Christian population declined 29 percent in
the West Bank and 20 percent in the Gaza Strip
from 1997 to 2002. By contrast, in the period
19952003, Israels Arab Christian population
grew 14.1 percent (CAMERA, December 24, 2004).
3
Bethlehem Christians under Palestinian
Authority Jan. 2004 Bethlehem (6,559
Christians) Beit Jala (6,343 Christians) and Beit
Sahour (7,335 Christians) make up 20,237
Christians of the 120,000 total population
(1) The Christian population was reduced from a
60 majority in 1990 to a 20 minority in 2001
(23,000) (2) 1,640 Christians fled Bethlehem
between Oct. 2000 and Nov. 2001 (4) More Beit
Jala Christians reside in Belize (Central
America) than are left in Beit Jalah itself
(5) Before 1995, Bethlehem had a
majority-Christian municipal council. After the
PA take- over, Arafat replaced the municipal
council with a predominately Muslim council.
51.2 of Christians in Beit Sahour are
considering emigration (7) 2001 poll 45 of
Palestinian Christians in Bethlehem expressed
growing fears of tensions between Christians and
Muslims Mosques in Bethlehem 1970 - 5 mosques
2004 - 72 mosques
4
Abraham's Oak Russian "Holy Trinity" Monastery -
located in the Palestinian-controlled part of
Hebron, the monastery belonged to the Russian
Orthodox Church Outside of Russia. On July 5,
1997, Palestinian policemen arrived at the
monastery, physically removed the monks and nuns,
and took over the site. Several of the monks and
nuns required hospitalization. Associated
Press, July 9, 1997.
The Christian population declined 29 percent in
the West Bank and 20 percent in the Gaza Strip
from 1997 to 2002. By contrast, in the period
19952003, Israels Arab Christian population
grew 14.1 percent (CAMERA, December 24, 2004).
5
Christians are victims of bigotry, violence and
ethnic cleansing occurring mostly inside
Arab/Muslim countries. In newly liberated Iraq,
Christians are being brutalized and driven out by
Muslims with no response from the American Army.
In Bethlehem the former Christian majority has
been largely driven out under PLO/PA rule. In
Lebanon, in Egypt, in Sudan and elsewhere in the
Arab world Christians suffer persecution and even
death while the U.S. administration fails to
respond adequately.Rachel Neuwirth
6
Israel the Moslem World
7
Israel the Arab World
8
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9
98,500 sq km
20,770 sq km
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a. 3 miles wide here b. Golan Heights c. Sea of
Galilee d. Jordan River... Sea of Galilee      to
Dead Sea e. 1967 "Green Line"... the 1949     
armistice lines separating      Israel from its
heartland of      Judea-Samaria when
Jordanian      forces illegally annexed it. After
the      1967 Arab-Israeli war, Israel      
regained that land... at which time       the
world began referring to Judea and       Samaria
as the "West Bank" in order to       try to erase
any Jewish connection       to this historically
Jewish land! f.  9 miles wide here g. Tel Aviv h.
Jerusalem i.  Dead Sea j.  Gaza Strip 5 miles x
25 miles The surrounding 22 Arab countries are
640 times larger than tiny Israel yet they expect
Israel to turn over all the West Bank, Gaza
Strip, the Golan Heights and half of Jerusalem...
territory they lost after they started the 1967
war! 
17
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19
Water Line
Rishon LeZion
Jordan Valley
Ben Gurion Airport
1976 Green Line
20
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21
? Major Air Fields - Civilian and Military
? Major Sea Ports and Naval Bases
? Principal Power Stations
? Sweet Water System
? Crucial Communications and Transport Systems
? Vital Centers of Military Command Control,
and Centers of Civilian Government
? 80 of the Population and 80 of the Economic
Activity
22
What these two senators Byrd and Dole assume is
that somehow or other, some Arab state has a
right to claim that anything beyond the Green
Line is Arab territory under 242 and 338. This is
exactly contrary to its provisions and its
purpose…. There is an important document which
has now been released. It is useful in
interpreting Resolution 242 because it reveals
part of what the U.S. government had in mind in
pushing the resolution through. It is a map of
the area, showing the places of particular
security concern to Israel. The map was prepared
by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who made a study of
Israeli security …to advise the President on
what the security concerns of Israel were.
The study advised …that the security of Israel
required Israel to receive parts of the territory
of the West Bank as essential to its defense. In
fact, all the studies of the Israeli security
problem reached the same conclusion from the
security point of view, Israel must hold the high
points in the West Bank and areas along the
Jordan River.
I do not know if the Joint Chiefs of Staff would
draw a different map today, but I doubt is very
much. See Appendix D. Editor
Eugene V. Rostow, The Peace-Making Process and
UN Resolutions 242 and 338 in Israels
Legitimacy in Law and History, New York Center
for Near East Policy Research, 1993
23
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24
The Mountain Aquifer Recharge, Storage, and
Pumping Areas
Pumping Area
Recharge Area
Jordan Valley
Storage Area
Mediterranean
Subterranean Flow
Aquiclude
Aquifer
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Judea Samaria Highlands
Pumping Sites
Coastal Plain
Direction of Salt Propagation
27
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Wells within Israel proper were tapping this
water long before the Six-Day War. But as the
population and water demand on both sides of the
Green Line have grown, the control of the western
slopes has attained a new and vital importance
for Israel.
29
Location of wells and springs in districts of the
West Bank
30
Head of Military Intelligence The Arabs Demand
60 Percent of Israels Water
31
Territorial Concessions Multi Dimensional
Threat !!
(a) Length Extent of Frontiers
(b) Width No Strategic Depth
(c) Height Topographical Inferiority
(d) Depth Hydrological Dependency
32
The establishment of such a Palestinian state
means the inflow of combat ready Palestinian
forces (more than 25,000 men under arms) into
Judea and Samaria this force, together with the
local youth, will double itself in a short time.
It will not be short of weapons or other
military equipment, and in a short space of
time, an infrastructure for waging war will be
set up in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip.
Israel will have problems in preserving
day-to-day security, which may drive the country
into war, or undermine the morale of its
citizens.
In time of war, the frontiers of the Palestinian
state will constitute an excellent staging point
for mobile forces to mount attacks on
infrastructure installations vital for Israels
existence, to impede the freedom of action of the
Israeli air-force in the skies over Israel, and
to cause bloodshed among the population... in
areas adjacent to the frontier-line.
Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, Jerusalem Keter,
1978, p. 232.
33
Even if the Palestinians agree that their state
have no army or weapons, who can guarantee that a
Palestinian army would not be mustered later to
encamp at the gates of Jerusalem and the
approaches to the lowlands?
And if the Palestinian state would be unarmed,
how would it block terrorist acts perpetrated by
extremists, fundamentalists or irredentists? Shim
on Peres The New Middle East, New York H. Holt,
1993, p. 169.
34
In 1948, it may have been possible to defend the
thin waist of Israels most densely populated
area, when the most formidable weapon used by
both sides was the canon of limited mobility and
limited fire-power…
It is of course doubtful whether territorial
expanse can provide absolute deterrence. However,
the lack of minimal territorial expanse places a
country in a position of an absolute lack of
deterrence. This in itself constitutes almost
compulsive temptation to attack Israel from all
directions …
In the 20th century, with the development of the
rapid mobility of armies, the defensive
importance of territorial expanse has
increased…Without a border which affords
security, a country is doomed to destruction in
war. Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, pp.
235,254,255
35
... the innovation and sophistication in
weaponry ... including the appearance of ground
to ground missiles and supersonic
fighter-bombers... not only fail to diminish the
value of strategic depth and natural barriers,
but in fact enhance their importance. This is
even more true for Israels difficult geographic
position ...
One does not have to a military expert to easily
identify the critical defects of the armistice
lines that existed until June 4, 1967. For
Israel a military defeat ... would mean the
physical extinction of a large part of its
population and the political elimination of the
Jewish state. ...To lose a single war is to
lose everything... Yigal Allon, Israel The
Case for Defensible Borders, Foreign Affairs
October, 1976, pp. 38-54.
36
If a Palestinian state is established, it will be
armed to the teeth. Within it there will be
bases of the most extreme terrorist forces, who
will be equipped with anti-tank and anti-aircraft
shoulder-launched rockets, which will endanger
not only random passers-by, but also every
airplane and helicopter taking off in the skies
of Israel and every vehicle traveling along the
major traffic routes in the coastal plain.
Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, Jerusalem
Keter, 1978, p. 255.
The proponents of Palestinian State claim if
they the Arabs threaten us with artillery from
Kalkilya , we will threaten Kalkilya with our
artillery.
However, the answer to this is very simple. The
Arab world can exist, prosper, and develop not
only if our artillery threatens Kalkilya, but
even if it hits it. Israel, small and exposed,
will neither be able to exist nor to prosper if
its urban centers, its vulnerable airport and its
narrow winding roads, are shelled.
This is the fundamental difference between them
and us, this is the terrible danger involved in
the establishment of a third independent
sovereign state between us and the Jordan River…
A third state is liable to be an arrow-head
directed at the very heart of Israel with all the
force of the Arab world behind it. Amnon
Rubinstein, The Pitfall of a Third State
Haartez, 6.8.1976
37
Anyone who controls the water sources of the West
Bank can, quite simply dry out the coastal plain
in Israel. Control of the two major aquifers,
drilling of deep bore-holes and subsequent
intensive pumping in Western Samaria and in the
Jenin and Tubas area are liable to leave the
Jewish farmers of the Sharon without irrigation
water, and the fields of the Jezriel Valley
devastated. Reuven Pedazur, Defence Analyst
Haaretz, 25.4.89
38
Maariv 12.6.1992
Ariel Sharon
These experiences prove not only that terror can
be eradicated, but also the principle by which
this is to be accomplished. It is imperative not
to run from terrorism, and it will be smitten
only if we control its bases and it engage its
gangs on their own territory.
And Gaza is the prime example. The populated
sections of Gaza had in 1970 become an area
controlled by the terrorist organizations because
the Defense Minister decided to evacuate the
towns, villages and refugee camps. Fortunately we
returned to the correct policy before the Gaza
Strip exploded like festering abscess, which
could have poisoned the entire surroundings. But
because of mistaken policy of fleeing from the
population centers and refraining from
eliminating the danger in its early formative
stages we had to conduct a much more difficult
and lengthy campaign.
Imperative Not To Flee From Terror
If now we once more fall into the same mistake,
the price will be much heavier than before
because now the terrorists and the means they
have at their disposal are different and more
dangerous than before. If we abandon Gaza, it
will be taken over by the terror organizations.
Palestine Square in Gaza will become a
launching site for rockets aimed at … Ashkelon
and what will the IDF do then? Will it once again
recapture Gaza? Shell and bomb the towns and
refugee camps in the Gaza Strip? We all aspire
to a political settlement, but we not will reach
it by way of surrender but only after crushing
terrorism and we can only eliminate terrorism if
we control its bases, and fight its gangs there
and destroy them.
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... a change in the sovereignty over this area
and its return to Syrians ...who have not
placed the peace issue in a prominent position
on their national agenda ...would raise problems
of the need to ensure the existing user rights
which depend on the Israeli Sea of Galilee inflow
...
E. Kally with G. Fishelson , Water and Peace
Water Resources and the Arab-Israeli Peace
Process, (Westport, Conn., 1993), p. 51.
If the Syrians resettle and industrialize the
Golan plateau after Israels evacuation, the area
might become a source of pollution endangering
the water quality of the Sea of Galilee.
D. Hillel, Rivers of Eden The Struggle for Water
and the Quest for Peace in the Middle East, (New
York, 1994), p. 289.
45
If the Syrians settle hundreds of thousands of
people on the Golan, without appropriate means
for treating the sewage and other sources of
pollution, it will mean the end of the Kinneret
beyond any shadow of a doubt. Testimony before
Knesset State Control Committee 3.1.2000.
The water sources on the Golan are a critical,
vital and even a fateful matter in terms of the
future of the State of Israel. I have to say
that I am not aware of any replacement for this
water. Yaacov Tsur, Minster of Agriculture
under both Rabin and Peres, Jerusalem Post, 27.
12. 1995.
46
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47
Total Post Oslo (1994-2000 ) Average Growth 4.9
lt 5.2
Post Oslo I (94-96) growth rate (6.1)
Pre Oslo I (90-92) growth rate (6.6)
Post Oslo II (96-99) growth rate (3.4)
48
Palestinian Lies
Of all the Palestinian lies there is no lie
greater or more crushing than that which calls
for the establishment of a separate Palestinian
state in the West Bank... .
Not since the time of Dr. Goebbels Head of the
Nazi Propaganda Machine has there ever been a
case in which continual repetition of a lie has
born such great fruits....
Haaretz (30-7-76), by former Meretz Minister of
Education, Prof. Amnon Rubinstein
49
--Then Satan said to unto himself This besieged
foe, how is he to be overcome. Both courage and
skill are his He is well armed and well alert
Then said Satan Not his strength I shall
sap Nor in bridle and muzzle shall I place
him Nor fear shall I bring into his heart Nor
cause him to be weak as he was before All I shall
do is this I shall dull his mind And make him
forget That righteousness is with him. Thus
spoke Satan, And the Heavens paled with fear as
he rose To commit the deed.
Natan Alterman
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50
Building Peace on Truth
Peace
Dictatorial
Deceptive
Peace Mutual harmony
Peace Lack of War due to Deterrence
51
The proposition that democracies are generally at
peace with each other is so strongly supported
. . . it has led some scholars to claim that
this finding is probably the closest thing that
we have to a law in international politics. Z.
Maoz B. Russett, Alliances, Contiguity, Wealth
and Political Stability, International
Interactions, Vol 17(3), 1992
Source http//www.wcfia.harvard.edu/ponsacs/semin
ars/Synopses/s92rumme.htm
52
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53
Two Opposing Hypotheses to Account for the
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Conventional Wisdom
The Fuel of the Conflict is the Absence of
Palestinian Self Determination
The True Palestinian Aspiration is to Establish a
State for Themselves
Alternative Wisdom
The Fuel of the Conflict is the Existence of
Jewish Self Determination
The True Palestinian Aspiration is to Dismantle a
State for Jews
54
There are no differences between Jordanians,
Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. We are all
part of one nation. It is only for political
reasons that we carefully underline our
Palestinian identity, because it is in the
interest of the Arabs to encourage a separate
Palestinian identity.
Yes, the existence of a separate Palestinian
identity serves only tactical purposes. The
founding of a Palestinian state is a new tool in
the continuing battle against Israel.
Zuheir Muhsin, formerly the head of the PLO's
Military Department and member of its Executive
Council Dutch daily Trouw March 31, 1977
… Jordanians and Palestinians are considered by
the PLO as one people.
Farouk Kadoumi, head of the PLO Political
Department, Newsweek, on 14th March 1977.
The appearance of the Palestinian national
personality comes as an answer to Israels claim
that Palestine is Jewish.
King Hussein, Amman, Nov. 1987
55
The Palestinian National Charter
Article 1. Palestine, the homeland of the
Palestinian Arab people, is an inseparable part
of the greater Arab homeland, and the Palestinian
people are a part of the Arab Nation.
Article 12 The Palestinian people believe in
Arab unity. In order to contribute their share
toward the attainment of that belief, however,
they must, at the present stage of their
struggle, safeguard their Palestinian identity
and develop their consciousness of that identity,
and oppose any plan that may dissolve or impair
it.
56
Rejection of every territorial proposal, which
would have allowed them to create a state of
their own - from the 1947 partition plan to
Barak's offer at Camp David in 2000
Rejection of a "two state solution", as evidenced
in their rhetoric and symbolism in which they
portray the whole the Land of Israel, from the
Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, as part of
Arab Palestine.
Palestinians refrained from demands to exert
their national sovereignty in the pre-1967 "West
Bank" and Gaza - as evidenced by the text of
their original National Charter. Accept rule by
a Hashemite Bedouin despot, who represents the
minority in the land.
Rejection not only of the far-reaching generosity
of the Barak proposal, but also the violent
manner in which they rejected it. Although the
proposals did include a proviso insisting on "end
of conflict, they were unprecedented in the
concessions offered towards making a Palestinian
state a feasible prospect. Palestinian response
is explic-able only if "end of conflict" is an
unacceptable concept for them.
Stubborn insistence on the "right of return,
which implies placing hundreds of thousands of
Palestinians ( and possibly even more), now
living in Arab countries, under Israeli
jurisdiction, a position hardly consistent with
an alleged desire to be free of oppressive
Israeli control... or with an equitable two-state
solution.
57
The Case for an Independent Nation State
Israel
Palestinians
Unique Religion
Unique Language
Unique Script
Unique History
Unique Customs
58
Mutually Exclusive, Irreconcilable National
Claims
No credible capable Palestinian leadership has
emerged
Proven Palestinian Political Incompetence Failure
despite very favorable conditions
Palestinians Failed test of history
Dont Deserve Statehood
De-legitimization of Palestinian Narrative
Dont desire Statehood
Remove the Issue of Palestinian Statehood from
Intl Agenda
Revealed Preferences Declarations Deeds
Rejected every territorial proposal
Palestinian Behavior and Decisions
The Human Predicament Persists
Abandon Political Paradigm Adopt Humanitarian one
59
Redefine the Palestinian Problem and the
Nature of its Solution
Cast in Humanitarian - Rather than Political -
Terms
Concentrate on Dealing with the Genuine
Humanitarian Predicament on Individual Basis -
Rather than Fulfilling Spurious Political Demands
60
Feasibility
Territorial Compromise
Relocation and Rehabilitation
Individual Recipients
Host Countries
Economic Cost
61
Relocation and Rehabilitation as Individual
Rational Choice
The individual Palestinian would have the
following choices
62
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63
La Victoire, elle comme Dieu si on y croit,
elle existe
?? ???? ??? ?? ????
We Shall Overcome
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