Climate Observation

1

NOAA Mission Goal CLIMATE
Climate Observation Analysis (COA)
Program Program Managers Overview Climate
Working Group (CWG) March 29, 2006 Thomas R.
Karl COA Program Manager
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COA Program Briefing Outline

• COA Program Overview
• COA Performance Objective Linkages
• Description of COA Program
• Capabilities
• Requirements Drivers
• Desired End State (Performance Measures)
• Societal Impacts and National / International
  Linkages
• Selected Thematic Highlights/Activities as
  Related to Future Priorities
• Developing Hazard Resilient Communities/Hazard
  Ready Businesses
• Drought (NIDIS)
• Observed Changes and Variations (CCSP)
• Weather Climate Extremes (CCSP)
• Coastal Inundation and Erosion
• Integrated Ocean Observing System (Mike Johnson)
• Preserving and Accessing the Climate Record (AAA)
• Budget and Priorities
• FY05/FY06 Budget Impacts on COA

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Climate Observations and AnalysisProgram
Overview
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COA Program Performance Objective Climate Goal
Linkage
Climate Goal Understand climate variability
and change to enhance societys ability to
plan and respond
Climate Programs Goal Performance Objective
Outcomes

Regional Decision Support
Increase number and use availability of climate
products and services to enhance public and
private sector decision making
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COA Program DescriptionCapabilities
Capabilities Capability Drivers
Desired Outcomes

• Integrated complete ocean, surface, upper air,
  space observing systems
• Support Mission Outcome A predictive
  understanding of the global climate system

• Foundation for other 2 capabilities
• Critical to understanding climate

Observations
Data Management

• Essential for fidelity of archived records
• Provides archive, access, stewardship

Analysis of Climate System

• Dependent upon first 2 capabilities
• Critical to societal benefits

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COA Program DescriptionRequirements - Program
Drivers
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COA Program Description Desired End State
Performance Metrics
Climate Program Outcome Predictive understanding
of Global climate system on time scales of weeks
to decades
Top Tier PM (CPM) Increased atmospheric, ocean,
and select terrestrial state variables with
quantitative analysis reported in NOAAs Annual
State of the Climate Report.
CPM Increase the percentage of in-situ global
integrated ocean observing system (IOOS)
implemented.
Linkage to COA Outcome Describe and understand
the state of the climate system through
integrated observations, analysis, and data
stewardship
CPM Increase the number of Ocean Climate
Variables Reported
CPM Increase the number of Climate Data Records
(CDRs) produced from satellite observations
CPM Increased number of years that climate
analysis and next-generation reanalysis are
extended, to include earlier and later time
periods
GPRA Determine the National Explained Variance
() for annual average temperature and
precipitation for the contiguous United States
using the USCRN stations
Project On life support
Major reduction in PM targets
GPRA Reduced Error in Global Measurement of
Sea Surface Temperature
Some reduction in PM targets
Mostly On Track
CPM NOAA Corporate Performance Measure GPRA
Government Performance Results Act
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COA Program Description Desired End State
Performance Metrics
Climate Program Outcome Predictive understanding
of Global climate system on time scales of weeks
to decades
Increased completion of the Arctic Ocean
Observing System.
Reduce the error in global sea level rise.
Reduce the error in global ocean carbon
inventories.
Reduce the error in global measurement of ocean
heat content.
Linkage to COA Outcome Describe and understand
the state of the climate system through
integrated observations, analysis, and data
stewardship
Develop Climate Extreme Indices providing
socio-economic impact information.
Increased number of Global Climate Observing
System Surface Network (GSN) Sites.
Increased number of Global Climate Observing
System Upper Air Network (GUAN) Sites.
Document and explain 3D changes of temperature
and water vapor in the atmosphere. Precipitation
over the land, and temperature and salinity in
the oceans.
Project On life support
Major reduction in PM targets
Provide quarterly reports of the State of the
Ocean Meridional heat transport in the Atlantic
derived from xbt data.
Some reduction in PM targets
Mostly On Track
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COA Program Description Desired End State
Performance Metrics
COA Performance Metric Summary
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8
11
13
(A total of 41 Performance Measure)
Other performance measures
Project On life support KEY
Some reduction in PM targets
Major reduction in PM targets
Mostly On Track
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COA Program DescriptionImpacts on key societal
issues
Important societal issues often require

• Data/Observations from a variety of observing
  systems
• Management of these data
• Analysis of these data
• Applied Research
• Paleoclimate
• Detecting/attribution
• Decision support tools / assessments

The COA is structured around these three
capabilities 1. Observations, 2. Data
Management, 3. Analysis of the Climate System
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COA Program DescriptionProgram Management
Philosophy
CCSP 1.1 Recommendation for Improved Climate Data
Records and Understanding of Climate
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COA Science Program National International
LinkagesIntegrated Data Management Critical to
all COA Programs
COA Activities Highlighted
Trends (CCSP) Drought (NIDIS) Extremes
(CCSP) Coastal Inundation/Erosion Archive,Access,A
ssessment
25 COA Projects
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COA Program

• Selected Thematic Highlights/Activities as
  Related to Future Priorities
• Developing Hazard Resilient Communities/Hazard
  Ready Businesses
• Drought (NIDIS)
• Observed Changes and Variations (CCSP)
• Weather Climate Extremes (CCSP)
• Coastal Inundation and Erosion
• Integrated Ocean Observing System (Mike Johnson)
• Preserving and Accessing the Climate Record (AAA)

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COA Highlights/Activities Developing Hazard
resilient communities / Hazard ready businesses
Is society recognizing the necessity of
environmental security?

• Human Dimension Loss of life impacts due to
  environmental events
• Climate hazards drought, rising sea level,
  hurricanes, winter storms, etc.
• Growing evidence of climate linkages to health
  well being
• Business Dimension Enhanced opportunities /
  economic gains by considering climate information
  in decisions
• Policy Dimension More effective government
  policy by appropriately using climate information
  in decisions

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COA Highlights/Activities Developing Hazard
resilient communities / Hazard ready businesses
New Orleans, LA 2005
How do we promote a society fully invested in
climate and the environment?
Hurricane Katrina Forecast Track Overlay

• Selected COA Activities
• NIDIS-Drought
• Observed changes variations in climate
• Climate/weather extremes
• Sea Level Rise impacts

Western U.S Drought
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COA Highlights/ActivitiesA National Integrated
Drought Information System (NIDIS)

• 
  
  

• Goals Objectives - Implement an integrated
  national drought monitoring forecasting system

• Create drought early warning system
• Provide interactive delivery systems via web
• Provide education of drought impacts and why
  drought occurs
• Improved predictive capabilities
• Includes information for drought mitigation

Physical Science Socioeconomic Research
Educate
Risk Reduction Research
Observe
Plan
Monitor and Predict
Analyze
Inform
NIDIS Operations
Make Decisions Take Action
NIDIS Business Process Requirements for USGEO
(http//usgeo.gov/)
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COA Highlights/Activities National Integrated
Drought Information SystemExample of Impacts
that result from Delayed Station Reporting

• Drought severity can be significantly under or
  over-estimated due to inadequate drought
  observations
• This affects Planning, Prediction, Mitigation,
  and Response
• Annual direct losses to the US due to drought
  are 6-8 billion (FEMA)

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COA Highlights/Activities National Integrated
Drought Information SystemInclusion of Paleo
data in Drought Analysis
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COA Highlights/Activities National Integrated
Drought Information SystemThe Drought
Observation Pieces we currently have

• Drought observations from a variety of
  networks
• But in variety of formats, disseminated by
  different methods, not easily interoperable
• Improvements needed in the frequency, timeliness
  and density of key observations
• Existing Observing Systems and Programs gt75M
  Direct Investment
• Observing Systems
• USGS National Streamflow Information Program
• USGS Ground Water Climate Response Network
• USDA Snow Survey Program Water Supply Forecasts
  to include Soil Climate Analysis Network
• NOAA Climate Reference Network
• NOAA Cooperative Legacy Sites, Cooperative
  Modernization Program
• NOAA Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS)
• FAA Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS)
• Programs
• NOAA Operational and Hydrological Research and
  Services
• NOAA National Climatic Data Center
• NOAA National Climate Prediction Center Drought
  Monitoring Teams
• NOAA Regional Climate Centers
• NASA Applied Sciences Program

Supported by COA Climate Goal Supported by
Weather Water Goal
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COA Highlights/Activities National Integrated
Drought Information SystemNear term
opportunities (lt 2 years)

• Critical Gaps in Drought Observations
• Critical Gap Network
  Improvement needed
• USGS Ground water Report Frequency
• NOAA COOP Network Report Timeliness
• USDA Reservoirs Report Timeliness
• USDA Soil Moisture Station Density

Being addressed by - NOAAs Integrated Surface
Observation System (ISOS) - NOAAs Environmental
Real-time Observation Network (NERON)
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COA Highlights/Activities Role of ISOS and NERON
in support of theNational Integrated Drought
Information System
NERON
Funding
Climate Goal
WW Goal
ISOS
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COA Highlights/ActivitiesNational Integrated
Drought Information SystemU.S. Drought Portal

• Concept
• Internet portal to provide a drought early
  warning system from U.S. county to national scale
  
• Portal will provide seamless and timely access to
  Integrated Drought observations

U.S. Drought Portal (USDP)
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COA Highlights/ActivitiesNational Integrated
Drought Information SystemMid-term and Long-term
Gaps (Initial Concepts)

• Benchmark Drought Monitoring Network
• Provides optimal spatial and temporal sampling of
  reference standard quality for validation of many
  drought-related measurements.
• Model Re-analysis (re-analysis of past climate
  drought)
• Results in improved drought nowcasting,
  forecasting, decision support
• Provides a new tool for understanding how why
  droughts occur
• Research supporting drought risk assessment
  drought risk management
• Addresses early warning sub-systems for drought
  decision support
• Improved forecast skills related to sea surface
  temperature (E.g., El Nino)

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COA Highlights/Activities Observed Changes and
Variations Temperature Trends in the Lower
Atmosphere - CCSP 1.1

• 
  
  

U.S. Climate Change Science Program

• Performance Objective - An understanding of
• Temperature changes in the atmosphere
• Differences in these changes at various levels in
  the atmosphere
• The causes of these changes differences
• Available Products Methods
• Observations
• New surface, satellite, radiosonde data
• Analysis of Climate System
• New model simulations of the 20th century climate
  
• Comparisons of models observed data

Layers of the Atmosphere of Primary Interest in
CCSP 1.1
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COA Highlights/ActivitiesTemperature Trends in
the Lower AtmosphereCCSP 1.1

• 
  
  

Activities 2005-2006

• Draft Synthesis Product submitted to NRC for
  scientific review Jan 2005
• NRC comments received Apr 2005
• 2nd draft released for public comment Nov 2005
• Public comments received Jan 2006
• 3rd draft in response to public review posted to
  CCSP web site Mar 2006
• 3rd draft submitted to CCSP principals for
  comment and subsequently submitted to National
  Science and Technology Council for approval - Mar
  2006
• Final Synthesis Product posted on CCSP web site
  and 5,000 copies printed.

CCSP 1.1 Assessment to be Released March 31, 2006
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COA Highlights/ActivitiesTemperature Trends in
the Lower AtmosphereCCSP 1.1
Report Organization - Key Questions Addressed

• 
  
  

Preface --- Editorial team Executive
Summary CLA T. Wigley LAs V. Ramaswamy,
J. Christy, J. Lanzante, C. Mears, B. Santer,
and C. Folland Chapter 1 --- Why do
temperatures vary vertically (from the surface to
the stratosphere) and what do we understand about
why they might vary and change over time?
CLAs V. Ramaswamy LAs J. Hurrell and J.
Meehl Chapter 2 --- What kinds of atmospheric
temperature variations can the current observing
systems measure and what are their strengths and
limitations, both spatially and temporally?
CLA J. Christy LAs D. Seidel, S.
Sherwood Chapter 3 --- What do observations
indicate about the changes of temperature in the
atmosphere and at the surface since the advent of
measuring temperatures vertically? CLA J.
Lanzante LAs T. Peterson, F. Wentz and K.
Vinnikov
CLA Corresponding Lead Author LA Lead Author
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COA Highlights/ActivitiesTemperature Trends in
the Lower AtmosphereCCSP 1.1

• 
  
  

Report Organization-Key Questions Addressed
(cont.)
Chapter 4 --- What is our understanding of the
contribution made by observational or
methodological uncertainties to the previously
reported vertical differences in temperature
trends? CLA C. Mears LAs C.
Forest, R. Spencer, R. Vose, and R.
Reynolds Chapter 5 --- How well can the observed
vertical temperature changes be reconciled with
our understanding of the causes of these
changes? CLA B. Santer LAs J.
Penner, and P. Thorne Chapter 6 --- What
measures can be taken to improve the
understanding of observed changes? CLA C.
Folland LAs D. Parker, R. Reynolds,
S. Sherwood, and P. Thorne Statistical
Appendix CLA T. Wigley Glossary/Acronyms
CLA Corresponding Lead Author LA Lead Author
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COA Highlights/ActivitiesTemperature Trends in
the Lower Atmosphere
Project Highlights/Past Successes Whats New
since IPCC and NRC Assessments (Data sets and
Models)
New Sonde data sets (Free et. al. and Thorne et.
al.)
New version (Mears Wentz) Corrected Data Set
(Christy Spencer)
Addressed stratospheric influence in
derivation of tropospheric temperature (Fu et.
al.)
New data set (Vinnikov et. al.)
- 19 New model simulations with many ensemble
numbers prepared for IPCC (2007)
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COA Highlights/Activities CCSP 1.1Temperature
Trends for 1979-2004 (oC/decade) by Latitude
RRSS AUAH UHadAT2 MUMd PRATPAC NNOAA
T4 Lower Stratosphere T2 Mid Troposphere to
Lower Stratosphere T2LT Lower Troposphere TS
Surface
TROPICS
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COA Highlights/ActivitiesTemperature Trends in
the Lower AtmosphereCCSP 1.1 Key Findings
Modeled and Observed Global-Average Temperature
Trends
Modeled and Observed Temperature Trends in the
Tropics (20oS-20oN)
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COA Highlights/ActivitiesCCSP 1.1 Key Findings
The Relationships Between Tropical Temperature
Changes at Earths Surface and in Two Different
Layers of the Troposphere
Observations
Observations
Observations
Observations
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COA Highlights/ActivitiesTemperature Trends in
the Lower AtmosphereCCSP 1.1

• 
  
  

• Key Highlights
• Global-average warming in the atmosphere now
  similar to warming observed at the surface.
• Important change from earlier findings (USNRC and
  IPCC reports).
• Globally, observed changes consistent with
  results obtained from models (though
  discrepancies remain the tropics).
• Increased confidence in understanding of observed
  climate change/causes.

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COA Highlights/ActivitiesClimate and Weather
ExtremesCCSP 3.3

• Performance Objective/Focus
• Climate/Weather extremes that have significant
  societal impact
• Examples cold / heat waves, tropical / extra-
  tropical storms, droughts, major winter storms,
  heavy rainfall, etc.
• Assessment of observed changes future
  projections in frequency, intensity, duration
  of extremes

September 2005 Extremes

• Regions of Focus- North America, Caribbean,
  Hawaii U.S. Pacific Is.
• Author team nominees drawn from Canada, Mexico
  and the U.S.

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COA Highlights/ActivitiesClimate and Weather
ExtremesCCSP 3.3
Report Organization - Key Questions Addressed

• 
  
  

Executive Summary CLA Jerry Meehl, Thomas
Karl LAs Thomas Peterson, Kenneth Kunkel,
William Gutowski, Rick Murnane, Stewart Cohen,
Tom Knutson, John Stone Chapter 1. Why weather
and climate extremes matter CLA
Thomas Peterson LAs Dave Phillips, Camille
Parmesan, John Stone, Ray Bradley, Miguel
Cortez, Rick Murnane (also ES), Roger
Pulwarty, Stewart Cohen Chapter 2. Observed
changes of weather and climate extremes
CLA Kenneth Kunkel LAs David Levinson,
Tereza Cavazos, Art Douglas, Harold Brooks, David
Easterling, Kerry Emanuel, Charles Watson,
Pavel Groisman, Chris Landsea Chapter 3. Do
we understand the causes of observed changes in
extremes and what are the projected future
changes? CLA William Gutowski LAs Linda
Mearns, Greg Holland, Gabi Hegerl, Francis
Zwiers, Ron Stouffer, Peter Webster, Thomas
Knutson
CLA Corresponding Lead Author LA Lead Author
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COA Highlights/ActivitiesExample of Climate
Weather ExtremesWorldwide Trends of Heavy
Precipitation
Defining a Hypothesis

• Review evidence for the hypothesis
• As the climate warms, many areas will
  experience increases in the frequency of very
  heavy and extreme precipitation events and these
  changes will be disproportionately large compared
  with changes in the mean.
• Assess observational data theoretical
  information to support or contradict hypothesis.
  

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COA Highlights/ActivitiesExample of Climate
Weather Extremes
Observed climatology of 24-hour precipitation
Intensity (as a percentage of seasonal totals) as
a function of observed mean temperature based on
100 worldwide stations

• Even with no change in total precipitation
• Even stronger when precipitation increases

37
COA Highlights/ActivitiesExample of Climate
Weather ExtremesWorldwide Trends of Heavy
Precipitation
Trends in Vapor
1958-2001 Trend 0.45 mm/decade
from ERA-40 (Model)
1988-2001 Trend 0.53 mm/decade (ERA-40) 0.51
mm/decade (SSMI)
from SSMI (Satellite)
From Wentz (2005)
38
COA Highlights/ActivitiesExample of Climate
Weather ExtremesWorldwide Land Trends of Heavy
Precip(1951-2003)
Contributes to Annual TotalHeavy Precip Days
(gt95th percentile)
Daily Intensity(Total Annual Precip / of Days
with Precip)
Alexander et al. (2005)
39
COA Highlights/ActivitiesExample Application of
Climate Weather Extremes20th Century
Reanalysis Project

• Daily historic Troposphere reanalysis from
  surface pressure observations
• Example post-Christmas Snowstorm of Dec. 1947
  (Arrows point to same 500 hPa features)

Original 1947 Air Weather Service Analysis
Reanalysis Surface Pressure Ensemble Filter
Reanalysis Full NCEP Assimilation System

• Data assimilation system using only sfc pressure
  data
• Could produce a reanalysis of daily
  extratropical circulation from the late 19th
  century to present.
• International Surface Pressure Data Bank
• 21,702 land and marine stations

40
COA Highlights/ActivitiesExample Application of
Climate Weather ExtremesProbable Maximum
Hurricane Indices

• A project in support of the U.S. Army Corps of
  Engineers effort to rebuild levees in New Orleans

• Central Pressure Index Update-CPI
• The CPI is one of several parameters used to
  compute hurricane surge
• The ensemble mean of five CPI analyses yielded
  a 100-yr value
• CPI 90.2088 kPa (26.639 inches)
• Hurricane Katrina was slightly less that the
  100 year return period

Hurricane Katrina
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COA Highlights/ActivitiesExample Application of
Climate Weather ExtremesProbable Maximum
Hurricane Indices
Comparison between Tech Report 33 (1959), NWS
Tech Report 23 (1979), and the NOAA/NCDC
Analysis (2006)
Strong linear relationship between each storms
CPI and its pressure gradient (1976-2005)
100-year ?P
100-year CPI
Hurricane Katrina
Pressure gradient (?P) Peripheral pressure
(Pw) minus CPI
42
COA Highlights/ActivitiesExample Application of
Climate Weather Extremes Updating Precipitation
Frequency Estimates
Precipitation Frequency Estimates provide the
climatology of heavy rainfall with particular
attention to variability.

• NOAA precip frequency estimates are national
  standards
• Most current standards out of date (from early
  1960s or 1973)
• leads to unsafe design or excessive cost
• risks to ecosystem, life, property
• Updates complete for
• AZ, NV, NM, UT, SE CA (2003)
• IL, IN, OH, PA, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VA, WV, NC, SC,
  TN, KY (2004)
• Rest of U.S. should be updated

Percent Difference 1961 and 2004 Atlases 100 Year
24 hour
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COA Highlights/ActivitiesCoastal Inundation and
Erosion

• Rising Sea Level requires observations and
  data across many disciplines Critical to Hazard
  Resilient Communities / Hazard Ready Businesses
• Examples of data and impacts
• Physical causes/processes
• Volume/quantity (water)
• Ocean Circulation
• Coastal waves/winds
• Tides
• Permafrost / Sea ice
• Biological/Ecosystem impacts
• Salinity
• Estuaries
• Economic/Social impacts on
• coastal infrastructure
• employment
• Population life

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Hazard Readiness Sea Level RiseCoastal
Inundation Erosion involves multiple systems
Temperature
Human Population Distribution Scenarios
Societal Infrastructure Coastal Scenarios
Permafrost
Bathymetry
Coastal Inundation Erosion Scenarios
Winds
Reanalysis Coupled Climate Models
Biochemical Impacts(Ecosystems)
Winds
Temperature
Sea Ice
Tides

• Ocean
• Volume
• Circulation
• Quantity

Temperature
Sea Level Change
RiverRun-off
Glaciers
Observations
Models
Land Mass Ocean Properties
Human Impacts
Physical Impacts
Sea Level Change
44
45
COA Highlights/Activities Coastal Inundation
Erosion
Extreme event 941 mb cyclone, flooding of
Nome, AK on 19 Oct 2004
International Arctic Research Center
Front Street, Nome, AK October 19,
2004(photo by J. Steiger, WSO Nome)
46
COA Highlights/Activities Coastal Inundation
Erosion Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Tool
Future COA activities Counties needed a more
interactive way to visualize risk and
vulnerability

• Example of analysis tool to meet these
  requirements and features
• Risk and vulnerability assessment tutorial
• 3-D storm surge visualizations
• Interactive mapping application within eastern,
  Florida
• Lessons Learned report documenting the process

47
COA Highlights/Activities Coastal Inundation
Erosion Role of IOOS
Integrated Ocean Observing System Linking
open-ocean component of IOOS with

• Regional/coastal component provides
  critical link to
  stakeholders
• Addresses a high-priority problem
• Shared learning joint-problem solving
• IOOS/Other Disciplines/Users
• Objective would forge important links between
  IOOS open ocean and IOOS coastal
• Important linkages to Ecosystem and Weather
  Water Goals
• Important linkages to National Science and
  Technology Councils (NTSC) Subcommittee on
  Disaster Reduction (SDR)
  Grand Challenges for Disaster Reduction
  Coastal Inundation.

20 years ago oil tanks were 60m away from the
coast of the Arctic Ocean (from Ogorogov (2003)
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COA Highlights/Activities Introduction to the
IOOS Global Component

• Mission Build and sustain a global climate
  observing system that will respond to the long
  term observational requirements of the
  operational forecast centers, international
  research programs, and major scientific
  assessments.
• Objectives
• Document long term trends in sea level change.
• Document ocean carbon sources and sinks.
• Document ocean storage and global transport of
  heat and fresh water.
• Document ocean-atmosphere exchange of heat and
  fresh water.
• A composite system of systems designed to meet
  Climate requirements, but also supports
• Weather prediction
• Global and coastal ocean prediction
• Marine hazards warning
• Transportation
• Marine environment and ecosystem monitoring
• Naval applications

• Tide gauge stations
• Drifting Buoys
• Tropical Moored Buoys
• Profiling Floats
• Ships of Opportunity
• Ocean Reference Stations
• Ocean Carbon Networks
• Arctic Observing System

• Dedicated Ship Support
• Data Assimilation Subsystems
• Management and Product Delivery
• Satellites -- SST, Surface Topography, Wind,
  Color, Sea Ice

49
COA Highlights/Activities IOOS Global Component
Priorities

• Implement GCOS-92
• Internationally agreed implementation plan
• The GCOS-92 Ocean Domain is
• International GOOS
• US IOOS Global Component
• GEOSS Ocean Baseline
• UNFCCC Priority
• G8 Commitment
• Priority Gap
• Funding to meet implementation targets.

All of NOAAs global contributions are managed in
cooperation with the Joint WMO/IOC Technical
Commission for Oceanography and Marine
Meteorology (JCOMM) -- presently 66 nations.
JCOMM is a designated implementing agent for 21
GCOS-92 specific ocean actions.
50
COA Highlights/Activities IOOS Global Component
Global Ocean Observing System for Climate
Status of the GCOS Implementation Plan and JCOMM
targets FY 2005 GCOS Performance Measure 53
CompleteFY 2005 Actual Performance 55 Complete
55
Total in situ networks
September 2005
57
Slide 7
95
40
82
67
43
72
48
21

• A total of 4,081 platforms are maintained
  globally.
• The U.S. supports 2,315, of which the COA
  Program supports 2,148

51
COA Highlights/Activities IOOS Observing
Systems Measurement of Progress
2002
2003
2004
2006
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Real-time Stations Initial GCOS Subset
170
160
155
148
106
126
Tide Gauges
79
91
67
67
69
1250
1250
1250
1250
1250
1250
1250
1250
779
787
Number of buoys
975
Surface Drifting Buoys
119
119
119
97
115
104
Number of moorings
86
91
Tropical Moored Buoys
79
79
83
High resolution and frequently repeated lines
occupied
51
51
51
47
42
45
Ships of Opportunity
39
39
26
26
27
3000
3000
3000
3000
3000
3000
3000
Number of floats
544
2240
Argo Floats
1500
923
Number of observatories, flux, and ocean
transport stations
89
43
41
42
78
37
60
54
Reference Stations
35
46
49
Ice buoys, drifting and Moored stations
54
54
52
24
21
24
24
41
13
12
12
Arctic System
Repeat Sections Completed, One inventory per 10
years
37
34
31
28
Ocean Carbon Network
20
23
1
15
17
4
9
882
882
882
831
Days at sea (NOAA contribution)
659
Dedicated Ship Time
472
496
458
458
370
458
Representative milestones including international
contributions
System Complete
97
100
89
81
Base Budget FY 07 Presidents Budget Planning,
Unfunded
72
59
40
45
Total System
57
55
48
2002
2003
2004
2006
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
52
Observing System Status 2005, Q4. Sea Surface
Temperature
1,250
Historic Milestone Global Drifter 1,250 was
deployed 18 September 2005 near Halifax. With
this deployment the global drifting buoy array
achieved its design goal of 1,250 data buoys in
sustained service and became the first component
of the Global Ocean Observing System to be fully
implemented.
Ship observations not shown
100 80 60 40 20 0
Requirement All boxes blue
Drifting Buoys Moored Buoys Ships Total
Goal 100 Global Coverage
Drifting Buoys Moored Buoys Weighted Ship
Observations
Percent of 5x5 Boxes with 25 Observations per Week
53
Extending the tropical moored buoy network across
the Indian Ocean, and PIRATA extensions.
Moored Buoys reporting on the GTS
PIRATA
TAO/TRITON

• CLIVAR/GOOS Initial Indian Ocean
• moored array design
• Japan - 2 existing TRITON sites
• India-USA deployed 4 ATLAS moorings November
  2004

• PIRATA
• PIRATA Backbone
• Existing Brazil SW Extension
• Proposed USA PIRATA NE Extn (7/06)
• NDBC Hurricane and PIRATA extension

54
Achieving a global array of 3,000 profiling
floats
55
International goal Evolve from Broadcast XBT to
HDX/FRX mode as Argo comes on line.
Note AX08 is Under sampled in FRX Mode
39 of 51 lines occupied
24,000 XBTs required per year (if perfect
deployment) 19,686 Present drops per year,
estimate 4,314 Additional XBTs needed
56
Tide Gauge System Progress
October 2004 -- 69 Real-time stations
October 2005 -- 143 Real-time stations
By the end of 2007 most of the 170 Climate
Reference Tide Gauge Stations Will Provide Marine
Hazards Warning in Real Time
57
Chilean Tsunami Buoy being Deployed during a
U.S. Climate mission
NOAA Contributions Future NOAA
Deploying and maintaining 89 Ocean Reference
Stations (42 now in service)
58
Measuring Ocean Carbon Sources and Sinks
Global ocean carbon inventory every 10 years and
air-sea exchange of CO2 seasonally. 1. Inventory
survey 2. Ships of opportunity 3. Moored buoy
time series
38 complete
59
COA Highlights/Activities IOOS Arctic Observing
System

• Major Observational Thrusts
• Arctic Cloud, Radiation, Aerosol Observatory
  eastern Canada
• Ice mass balance (IMB) buoys
• Bering Strait Ocean Flux Moorings
• Northern Bering Sea mooring
• Bering/Chukchi ocean transect for physical and
  biological change detection

60
COA Highlights/Activities IOOS Ocean Analysis
Products

• Sea level to identify changes resulting from
  climate variability.
• Ocean carbon content every ten years and the
  air-sea exchange seasonally.
• Sea surface temperature and surface currents to
  identify significant patterns of climate
  variability.
• Sea surface pressure and air-sea exchanges of
  heat, momentum, and fresh water to identify
  changes in forcing functions driving ocean
  conditions and atmospheric conditions.
• Ocean heat and fresh water content and transports
  to
• 1) identify changes in the global water cycle
• 2) identify changes in thermohaline circulation
  and
• monitor for indications of possible abrupt
  climate
• change
• 3) identify where anomalies enter the ocean, how
• they move and are transformed, and where
• they re-emerge to interact with the atmosphere.
• Sea ice thickness and concentrations.
• Seven ocean variables reported in BAMS.
• Goal is twelve.

61
COA Highlights/Activities IOOS Where the Work
gets done
CIFAR
CEFAS
WHOI
LDEO
PMEL
GFDL
JCOMM OPS
UW
OCO
ETL
NCEP
JCOMM 66 Nations
SAI
NCDC
CO-OPS
SIO
FSU
NDBC
UH
AOML
BBSR
UM
19 Centers of Expertise 151 People
In Situ System Funding 45 Universities 41
OAR Labs 10 NWS 03 Private 01 NESDIS NOS

• Managed budget
• 34.7 million
• 104 funded projects

RGOOS
62
COA Highlights/ActivitiesPreserving Accessing
the Climate Record Archive, Access and
Assessment (AAA)

• Performance Objectives
• Provide access and stewardship to the Nations
  resource of global climate and weather related
  data and information
• Assess and monitor climate variation and change.
  
• NOAA Data Management Challenges
• New systems will lead to 100-fold increase in
  data volume
• Increasing need for interdisciplinary data use
• Current systems already face challenges

63
COA Highlights/Activities Preserving Accessing
the Climate Record An Integrated Data
Environment for NOAA data
Global Earth Observation Integrated Data
Environment (GEO-IDE) Critical to all COA
Programs

• Architecture based upon standards
• Data (e.g. CF, FGDC, ISO)
• Access (e.g., OGC, http)
• Transport (OPeNDAP)
• Build upon community
• capabilities
• Use FEA Service Orientated
• Architecture (SOA)
• Based on Web Services

64
COA Highlights/Activities Preserving Accessing
the Climate Record CLASS and GEO-IDE
NOAAs Integrated Data Environment Expand CLASS
to provide for archive access to all NOAA data

• Comprehensive Large Array data Stewardship System
  (CLASS) will
• Be a flexible interoperable framework
  compatible with the GEO IDE model
• Enables Scientific Data Stewardship
  activities to make data more useful to global
  clientele
• Incorporates an Open-Architecture capability
  allowing use of automated machine interfaces

65
COA Highlights/Activities Preserving Accessing
the Climate Record Scientific Data Stewardship
(SDS)
Creating Climate Data Records (CDR) of the
Essential Climate Variables using Satellite
Observations NOAA-NASA Research to Applications
66
COA Highlights/Activities Preserving Accessing
the Climate Record Climate Users
AAA Description Access Component

• Access to climate data holdings benefits all
  sectors of the Nations economy
• Weather and climate sensitive industries account
  for about 1/3 of the Nations Gross Domestic
  Product.
• Climate data access by user type versus
  platform

67
COA Highlights/Activities Preserving Accessing
the Climate Record Climate Users and Feedback

• In 2005
• gt 3.4 million users access climate data
• Resulting in 114 millions "hits" on WEB site
  
• gt 50 terabytes downloaded from online
  archives
• User interaction, cooperation, feedback
• Critical to NOAAs success in terms of developing
  products that fulfill user needs
• Planning for 2007 Users Workshop
• Details to be announced in AMS-BAMS, AGU-EOS,
  Listservers, etc.

68
COA Highlights/Activities Preserving Accessing
the Climate Record Climate Data Use Examples
from A to Z

• Agribusiness A USDA Entomologist used
  historical temperature data to make assessments
  of the life cycle appropriate pesticide spray
  intervals to eradicate the cotton-destroying boll
  weevil from the U.S.
• Construction The National Association of Home
  Builders used an NCDC developed air freezing
  index in order to design the building standards
  for frost protected shallow foundations. A
  shallower foundation saves homebuilders 300
  million annually in construction costs
• Energy For every 1 that Duke Energy spends in
  acquiring NOAA climate data, they receive a
  potential benefit of saving 495 in
  infrastructure costs required to maintain their
  own climate data base system. Extrapolating to
  the entire Energy industry use of NOAA climate
  data yields a potential benefit of 65 million

• Health The Centers for Disease Control
  found that surface weather situations have a
  relationship to the development
  of harmful insect populations
  (mosquitoes) that can spread diseases.
• Transportation For every 1 that Railway
  Companies such as Union Pacific spend in
  acquiring NOAA climate data, they receive a
  potential benefit of saving almost 13,140 in
  infrastructure costs required to maintain their
  own climate data base. Extrapolating the savings
  to the entire U.S. railway market use of NOAA
  climate data yields a potential benefit of 11.5
  million
• Zoologists Researchers at the San Diego Zoo
  used climate data to determine the susceptibility
  of zoo inhabitants t o disease during El Nino
  episodes since a higher incidence of disease was
  observed during these episodes.

69
COA Highlights/Activities AAA Preserving
Accessing the Climate Record Scientific
Assessments
AAA Description Assessment Component

• Scientific assessments of climate variability and
  change are critical to establishing the state of
  the science for policy makers the public.
• AAA partners in producing these major assessment
  reports
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)
• The U.S. National Assessment
• Monthly, seasonal, and annual reports on the
  State of the Climate

70
COA Highlights/Activities Preserving Accessing
the Climate Record Example of Data Integration
Intercomparison Weather Models
Observational record

• Display of upper-air in-situ data and NCEP
  North America Regional Reanalysis Model
• Analysis can improves both models and
  observations
• Model background provide QC for observational
  records
• Observations can provide improvements to models

71
COA Highlights/Activities Preserving Accessing
the Climate Record Example of Data Integration
Blended Radar-Rain Gage Rainfall Climatology
NEXRAD Rainfall Estimates

• Radar Rainfall Mosaics
• Warm season radar rainfall1995-2003
• Digital Precipitation Array Product
• Five radars N. and S. Carolina
• Merged Mosaic Produced
• Biases evident in the Radar-only product

• Multi-sensor Precipitation Algorithm (Office of
  Hydrology (NWS))
• Rain gages added (October 2003)
• Bias Mosaic mean field bias calculated for each
  radar using corresponding gages
• Multi-sensor mosaic gage-radar merging via
  Single Optimal Estimation

72
COA Highlights/Activities Preserving Accessing
the Climate Record Climate Indicators

• National Climate Impact Indicators program
  (NCIIP) established in 2002
• to enhance the understanding of weather
  climates effects on vital socioeconomic sectors
  of the Nation
• Climate indices developed
• Energy (Residential Energy Demand Index)
• Agriculture (Soybeans corn )
• Air quality (Air Stagnation)
• Transportation
• Convective SIGMETs
• Health (West Nile Virus)
• Possible Future Indices
• Housing Starts, Moisture Stress Index,
  Transportation (roadways, rail, waterways),
  Retail Sales, Tourism, Water Management Stress
  Index, etc.

Impact of thunderstorms on the U.S. Airspace
System
73
COA Highlights/ActivitiesPreserving Accessing
the Climate Record Monitoring Network Performance
Stillwater, OK
74
COA Highlights/ActivitiesPreserving Accessing
the Climate RecordGlobal Temperature Anomalies
1880-2005

• Global surface temperature near 1998 record
  without strong El Nino episode
• Ocean temp 2nd warmest
• Land temp 2nd warmest
• Continuation of steep warming trend brought
  global temperature to 1998 levels in only 7 years
• 9 of 10 warmest years on record have occurred
  since 1995

• Trend since 1976 0.18C/Decade

75
COA Highlights/ActivitiesPreserving Accessing
the Climate RecordExperimental Land Ocean Blend
Global Mean Temperature over Land Ocean
Preliminary New NOAA Surface Temperatures
No one year definitively warmest on
record Sampling, Random and Bias Errors analyzed
to estimate uncertainty in annual
anomalies Sampling and Random Errors decrease
with time due to improved coverage and better
instruments and measurement techniques
76
COA Highlights/ActivitiesPreserving Accessing
the Climate RecordSatellite In Situ SST
Analysis

• A NOAA SST analysis has been developed and is
  widely used for climate diagnostics and analysis
• Data in situ (ship and buoy) and operational
  satellite (AVHRR) observations combined to use
  ground truth of in situ and coverage of satellite
• Resolution weekly on 1o spatial grid

77
COA Highlights/ActivitiesPreserving Accessing
the Climate RecordShip-Buoy SST Zonal Biases
Annual Ship - Buoy Bias

• Buoy SSTs increase with time
• Significant buoy obs 1994 to present
• Care required to first correct in situ biases
  then satellite biases

78
COA Highlights/ActivitiesPreserving Accessing
the Climate RecordNew Higher Resolution - SST OI
Analysis

• Resolution Daily, 0.25o C
• Data Satellite plus in situ (ship and buoy)
  data
• Satellite data to include
• Infrared AVHRR Longest satellite data set
• Microwave AMSR-E Not impacted by clouds so
  better coverage than infrared
• 7-Day large-scale satellite bias correction for
  each satellite so analysis useful for climate
• Initial results shown for 2003
• Separate analyses using AVHRR and AMSR-E to
  examine impact of different satellite data

79
COA Highlights/ActivitiesPreserving Accessing
the Climate RecordMagnitude of Gradient

• Examination of Gulf Stream useful to compare
  AVHRR and AMSR-E data and analyses

• Results shown for daily analysis using AMSR-E for
  January - March 2003
• Gradients are quasi stationary so limited AVHRR
  data are useful

80
COA Highlights/ActivitiesPreserving Accessing
the Climate RecordJan 2003 Mean SST Gradient

• From the figure note
• Sparse AVHRR data
• AMSR-E data missing near coast otherwise almost
  complete
• AVHRR analysis gradients reasonable because
  gradients are quasi stationary
• AMSR analysis has strongest gradients due to
  better data coverage

Monthly Average Gradient JAN2003
AVHRR Analysis
AVHRR DATA
AMSR-E Analysis
AMSR-E DATA
81
COA Highlights/ActivitiesPreserving Accessing
the Climate Record Extended Effort-Compute Daily
OI SST Analyses

• Daily Operational analysis with AVHRR and AMSR to
  be operational by summer 2006
• Reanalysis efforts will extend
• Daily analysis using Pathfinder AVHRR back to
  January 1985
• Daily analysis using Pathfinder AVHRR and AMSR-E
  back to June 2002
• Additional satellite data to be tested and used

82
COA ProgramBudgets and Priorities

• FY05/FY06 Budget Impacts on COA
• COA Program Priorities based upon Enacted Budget
• COA Program Future Directions

83
COA Program Impacts of FY 05 and FY 06 Enacted
Budgets
Capability Observations
Project On life support KEY
Some reduction in PM targets
Major reduction in PM targets
Mostly On Track
84
COA Program Impacts of FY 05 and FY 06 Enacted
Budgets
Capability Observations
Project On life support KEY
Some reduction in PM targets
Major reduction in PM targets
Mostly On Track
85
COA Program Impacts of FY 05 and FY 06 Enacted
Budgets
Capability Data Management
Project On life support KEY
Some reduction in PM targets
Major reduction in PM targets
Mostly On Track
86
COA Program Impacts of FY 05 and FY 06 Enacted
Budgets
Capability Analysis of the Climate System
Project On life support KEY
Some reduction in PM targets
Major reduction in PM targets
Mostly On Track
87
COA Program Future Directions (FY 07-13)
Integration of observation data management in
support of U.S. International Integrated Earth
Observing Systems IEOS GEOSS

• Requires
• Incremental, annual expansion of observing
  systems
• Integrated data management
• Will Result in
• Improved analysis services for decision
  makers, resulting in enhanced societal benefits
  such as Hazard Resilient Communities, Hazard
  Ready Businesses. Examples
• NIDIS-Drought
• Climate Extremes
• Coastal Erosion Inundation

88
COA Program Future Directions and Priorities
Capability Observations
Gold Priority
Silver Priority
Bronze Priority
KEY
89
COA Program Future Directions and Priorities
Capability Observations
Gold Priority
Silver Priority
Bronze Priority
KEY
90
COA Program Future Directions and Priorities
Capability Data Management
Gold Priority
Silver Priority
Bronze Priority
KEY
91
COA Program Future Directions and Priorities
Capability Data Management
Gold Priority
Silver Priority
Bronze Priority
KEY
92
COA Program Future Directions and Priorities
Capability Analysis of Climate System
Gold Priority
Silver Priority
Bronze Priority
KEY
93
COA Program Future Directions and Priorities
Capability Analysis of Climate System
Gold Priority
Silver Priority
Bronze Priority
KEY
94

• The End
• For Further Information on the
• Climate Observations and Analysis Program
• lthttp//www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/download/CWG20Brie
  f20Read20Ahead20Cover-1.pdfgt

95
Additional Slides
96
COA Program Description Desired End State
Performance Metrics
Determine Regional Explained Variance () for
annual average temperature and precipitation
using USHCN-M stations, for one U.S. Climate
region. New Start FY 07
Climate Program Outcome Predictive understanding
of Global climate system on time scales of weeks
to decades
Increase data ingested annually and place in the
archive.
Data and information added annually and available
for retrieval via the WWW.
Number of NOAA surface observing systems
integrated (ISOS) fully, partially, and
coordinated.
Linkage to COA Outcome Describe and understand
the state of the climate system through
integrated observations, analysis, and data
stewardship
Safe storage (primary and security copy) of all
climate related data NOAA and related observing
systems to the archives consistent with NARA
standards.
New products developed and placed on-line that
are FGDC compliant supporting validated
requirements.
Experimental products introduced into an
operational setting.
Project On life support
Deliver decision support products that respond to
National Policy or environmental monitoring.
Major reduction in PM targets
Improve understanding of climate variability in
the tropical Atlantic and Pacific from Seasonal
to decadal time scales.
Some reduction in PM targets
Mostly On Track
97
COA Program Description Desired End State
Performance Metrics
Report quarterly of the State of the Ocean
Global heat storage.
Climate Program Outcome Predictive understanding
of Global climate system on time scales of weeks
to decades
Report quarterly of the State of the Ocean
Global surface currents.
Product release CCSP 1.1. Temperature Trends
Establish FACA committee for CCSP product 3.3
Climate extremes
Linkage to COA Outcome Describe and understand
the state of the climate system through
integrated observations, analysis, and data
stewardship
Determine Alaska Explained Variance () of annual
average surface air temperature and precipitation
trends for Alaska.
Observing systems regularly monitored on an
operational basis for nominal system status and
for random and time-dependent errors.
Enhance Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts
(Joint with Climate Prediction)
Project On life support
AK coastal sites using operational wind/wave hind
cast Coastal Climatology models to predict future
erosion/storm surge/flooding conditions for use
by decision makers/planners developing mitigation
strategies/plans.
Major reduction in PM targets
Some reduction in PM targets
Mostly On Track
98
COA Program Description Desired End State
Selected Performance Metrics
Update Precipitation Frequency Estimates for all
50 states, District of Columbia (D.C.) and U.S.
territories (PR and VI), and Pacific Islands
(other than Hawaii)
Climate Program Outcome Predictive understanding
of Global climate system on time scales of weeks
to decades
Implement operationally a web-based access system
to produce dynamic Normals using optimal Normals.
New variables/products added to the new web-based
Normals system.
Linkage to COA Outcome Describe and understand
the state of the climate system through
integrated observations, analysis, and data
stewardship
Number of Paleoclimate Reconstructions (C²D²)
FY 08 Start
Number of Attribution Reports (ECIP)
Number of Years of Next Generation/Historic
Reanalysis (ECIP)
Number of Years of New Ocean/Regional/Land
Surface Reanalysis (ECIP)
Project On life support
Regional associations supported to develop
coastal climatological information products.
Major reduction in PM targets
Some reduction in PM targets
Mostly On Track