Advances in System Dynamics Group Model Building

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Advances in System DynamicsGroup Model Building

• George P. Richardson
• Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
• University at Albany, SUNY

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Outline of Remarks

• Origins of the current work
• System dynamics group model building
• Recent work with Eden and Ackermann
• Scottish Health System
• Transportation Security Administration
• The Emerging Approach

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Colleagues

• Colin Eden and Fran Ackermann, Strathclyde
  Business School, Glasgow
• John Bryson, Humphrey Institute, University of
  Minnesota
• David Andersen, Rockefeller College of Public
  Affairs and Policy, University at Albany
• Thirteen years of collaborations and thought,
  enlivened by skiing and hiking together

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Recent Fruits of our Efforts

• Andersen, DF, JM Bryson, GP Richardson, C Eden, F
  Ackermann, C Finn, 2006. Integrating Models of
  Systems Thinking into Strategic Planning
  Education and Practice The Thinking Persons
  Institute Approach. Journal of Public Affairs
  Education,12,3 (Summer 2006) 265-293.
• C Eden, F Ackermann, JM Bryson, GP Richardson, DF
  Andersen, 2008. Integrating modes of policy
  analysis and strategic management practice
  requisite elements and dilemmas. Journal of the
  Operational Research Society (forthcoming 2008).

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A Glimpse of the Systems Perspective
Reactive
Events and Decisions
Adaptive
Increasing leverage
Generative
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New York, Chicago Philadelphia, 1800-2000
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Prejudice and Minority Achievement (Myrdal,
Merton)

(R) Hope or despair
Aspirations of the minority

Prejudice


Minority perceptions of the gap
Achievements of the minority
(B) Striving
Discrimination
(R) Prejudice



Opportunities for the minority
Minority efforts to achieve


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Stocks, Flows, and Feedback Loops in a Gasoline
Crisis
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What is Group Modeling?

• A form of group decision support, involving a
  group of stakeholders with a complex problem
• Group facilitation
• Model building and refinement in public
• Simulation of scenarios and options
• Extensive facilitated discussion and analysis
• Facilitated policy design and decisions

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The Albany Teamwork Approach

• Facilitator / Elicitor
• Modeler / Reflector
• Process coach
• Recorder
• Gatekeeper

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Components of the Process

• Problem definition meeting
• Group modeling meeting
• Formal model formulation
• Reviewing model with model building team
• Rolling out model with the community
• Working with flight simulator
• Making change happen

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A Typical Room GMB Session
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Strathclyde Group Explorer Approach

• Facilitator / Elicitor
• Chauffer / Analyst
• Participants at networked computers

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Group Explorer Facilitated Strategic Planning

• Issue elicitation
• Laddering up to Own Goals
• Stakeholder power and interest grid
• Stakeholder goals and sanctions
• Prioritizing strategic priorities
• Key performance indicators
• Agreed policies and strategies in context

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Strategy Workshop in Scotland

• Borders Region of Scotland concerned with
  provision of care for persons with Dementia
• Consortium of 28 Health Care Practitioners and
  Managers formed the strategy planning team
• Workshop in January of 2007 Explored Innovation
  approaches integrating
• Workshops designed and used innovative Group
  Model Building scripts that integrate two
  different approaches to strategy making

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Scotland Workshop a View of the Room
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Scotland Workshop a View of the Room
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Picturing Complexity
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Picturing Complexity
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Picturing Complexity
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The Initial GE Issues Map
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Themes in the Issue Map
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Graphs Over Time to Focus the Discussion
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Linking Comments on Graphs Over Time
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Contributing a Systems ViewScreens for the
model (right) and DE (left)
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Flow of People in the Dementia Health System
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Pressure Points Who would do what?
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Who would do what? to decrease inflow to
community care
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Who Would Do What? in Three Pressure Points
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More Possible Pressure Points to Discuss
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Summary of Synergies in the Scotland Workshop

• Issue maps began the effort to focus the
  conversation
• Graphs-over-time pulled thinking about issues
  toward long-term patterns
• Stock-and-flow map stimulated system-wide
  understandings, taking thinking across boundaries
• DE maps captured detailed observations, insights,
  and claims throughout the entire process

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TSA Aviation Security Simulator

• Contract Between Transportation Security
  Administration and Argonne National Labs
• Argonne, Sandia, and Los Alamos as part of
  Tri-Labs collaboration
• UAlbany as special teams subcontractor for
  Group Model Building
• Eden and Ackermann invited to expand team

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Initial Issues identified
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Issues from Stakeholder Perspectives
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Initial Policy Priorities
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Graphs over time drawn by the participants
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Collecting Comments on Graphs Over Time
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Concept Model
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Concept Model
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Concept Model
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Concept Model Behaviors
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Eliciting TSA Model Structure

• Seed for elicitation was backbone stock and
  flow structure from Concept Model as elaborated
  by group
• Used variable pack available from key
  variable list made up in the morning
• Ability to link model structure to Group Explorer
  issue elicitation and key variable list explicitly

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Final Policy Priorities (redshort term,
greenlong term)
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Summary of Synergies in TSA Workshop

• GE maps used to elicit initial issues
• Graphs-over-time defining the problem dynamically
• GE used to map stakeholders and scenarios
• GE phrases turned into variables to seed dynamic
  model structure
• GE creating rich micro view SD creating
  holistic macro view
• GE used to create rich documentation as modeling
  discussion developed

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Where is This Leading?

• Duality of Vensim and Decision Explorer Maps
• Seamless approach to client groups
• Ability to zoom lenses between micro and macro
  views
• New support for model formulation and
  documentation
• New products that enhance value to clients
• Eventually perhaps integrated software suites

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Our Goals in Group Strategy Support
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A Portion of Our Analysis of Scripts and Products
Leading to Implementable Actions that will Work
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Example of Scripts and Products Working Together
Toward Key Performance Indicators
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Issue Elicitation Leads to
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Graphs Over Time Lead to
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The Magic Moving Fluently between Macro and
Micro
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between Micro and Macro
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For Further Reading

• Eden, C. and F. Ackermann (1998). Making
  Strategy The Journey of Strategic Management.
  London. Sage.
• Bryson, J. M. (2004). Strategic Planning for
  Public and Nonprofit Organizations, Third
  Edition. San Francisco, CA Jossey-Bass.
• Scripts for Group Model Building. System
  Dynamics Review 13,2 (summer 1997), D.F.
  Andersen and G.P. Richardson.
• Teamwork in Group Modeling Building, with David
  F. Andersen. System Dynamics Review 11,2 (summer
  1995).
• Using simulation models to address What If
  questions about welfare reform, A.A. Zagonel, J.
  W. Rohrbaugh, G.P. Richardson, and D.F. Andersen,
  Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 23,4
  (2004) 890-901.
• Anatomy of a group model-building intervention
  building dynamic theory from case study research.
  L.F. Luna-Reyes, I.J. Martinez-Moyano, T.A.
  Pardo, A.M. Cresswell, D.F. Andersen and G.P.
  Richardson. System Dynamics Review 22,4 (winter
  2006)291-320.